Frontier Group Holdings - Earnings Call - Q3 2025

Executive Summary

• Q3 2025 results were broadly in line with company expectations: revenue of $886M, diluted EPS of $(0.34), RASM of 9.14¢, and CASM ex-fuel of 7.53¢, with load factor improving to 80.7% amid a competitive pricing environment.
• Versus S&P Global consensus, Frontier delivered a modest EPS beat (actual $(0.34) vs $(0.368)) and a small revenue miss ($886M vs $900.1M), reflecting fare pressure from competitor actions in September/October and lower capacity (-4% YoY).
• Q4 2025 guidance introduced adjusted diluted EPS of $0.04–$0.20, roughly flat capacity YoY, with a higher fuel cost assumption ($2.50/gal vs prior $2.41/gal in earlier guidance), and no projected tax provision—guidance brackets S&P Global EPS consensus of ~$0.119*.
• Catalysts: ongoing competitor capacity reductions (notably Spirit exit/cuts across 36 overlapping routes and ~30% frequency reductions across 41 markets), new premium product (First Class) rolling out by spring, and loyalty monetization momentum—all expected to improve RASM and margin trajectory into 2026.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Load factor improved ~2.7 pts YoY to 80.7%, with stage-adjusted RASM up 2% YoY despite aggressive promotions and competitive pricing during the quarter.
• Management expects structural tailwinds from competitor capacity cuts through 2026: “We expect ongoing competitive capacity reductions to continue through 2026, supporting a more balanced supply environment and improved revenue performance”.
• Loyalty monetization accelerating: loyalty assets drove ~$7.50 revenue per passenger in Q3, up >40% YoY, with plans to double over time; management emphasized attainable elite status, free bags, and new companion benefits driving engagement.

What Went Wrong

• Frontier posted a net loss of $77M and diluted EPS of $(0.34) as CASM ex-fuel rose 9% YoY to 7.53¢, driven primarily by a ~15% reduction in average daily aircraft utilization on off-peak days; CASM inflation is also measured against a prior-year legal settlement credit tailwind.
• Revenue declined 5% YoY to $886M on 4% lower capacity and competitive fare pressure; fares worsened in September/October as a competitor dropped prices amid booking challenges, pressuring yields closer-in.
• RASM fell 2% YoY to 9.14¢ (unadjusted), reflecting the near-term impact of aggressive pricing before sequential improvement expected from competitor capacity reductions.

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Frontier Group Holdings quarter three 2025 earnings call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one one on the telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising that your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, David Erdman, Senior Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

David Erdman (Senior Director of Investor Relations)

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to our third quarter 2025 earnings call. On the call with me in speaking order are Barry Biffle, Chief Executive Officer, Jimmy Dempsey, President, Bobby Schroeter, Chief Commercial Officer, and Mark Mitchell, Chief Financial Officer. Each will deliver brief prepared remarks, but before they do, I'll recite the customary safe harbor provisions. During this call, we will be making forward-looking statements which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those predicted in these forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning risk factors which could cause such differences are outlined in the announcement we released moments ago, along with reports we filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We'll also be discussing non-GAAP financial measures, actual results of which are reconciled to the nearest comparable GAAP measure in the appendix of the earnings announcement. As well, we'll be talking about stage-adjusted unit metrics which are based on 1,000 mi. I'll give the floor to Barry to begin his prepared remarks. Barry?

Barry Biffle (CEO)

Thanks, David. Good afternoon, everyone. We delivered third-quarter results per share at the midpoint of our guidance range, demonstrating disciplined execution as we navigated competitive fare pressures and excess peak capacity through rigorous cost management. Operationally, our performance was noteworthy in September and October, ranking third and fourth respectively in completion factor among domestic carriers, underscoring our reliability and operational strength. Looking ahead, the competitive landscape is shifting in our favor. With our largest low-fare competitor significantly reducing capacity, we anticipate a more balanced supply-demand environment. This positions us to accelerate key commercial initiatives aimed at driving RASM growth and reinforcing our competitive advantage. Our strategy remains clear: to be the leading low-fare carrier in the top 20 U.S. metros.

We are leveraging enhancements to our loyalty program and upgraded product offerings, including the rollout of first-class seating by spring, an important milestone in elevating customer experience and revenue opportunities. At the same time, we will continue to aggressively manage costs to preserve our industry-leading cost advantage, which is central to delivering sustainable margin improvement. I want to thank our 15,000 Team Frontier members, including pilots, flight attendants, mechanics, airport staff, and more, whose dedication enables us to deliver the exceptional service and execute on our strategy every day. Now I'll turn the call over to Jimmy for commercial review. Jimmy?

Jimmy Dempsey (President)

Thanks, Barry, and good afternoon, everyone. In the third quarter, total revenue was $886 million. On 4% lower capacity year-over-year. Revenue per passenger rose to $106. Up 1% from the prior year, supported by an 81% load factor, nearly three percentage points higher than last year. RASM was $0.0914, and stage-adjusted RASM improved 2% year-over-year to $0.0876, reflecting disciplined capacity deployment. For the fourth quarter, we expect capacity to be roughly flat year-over-year with an average stage length of approximately 890 mi. Importantly, competitive seat capacity is projected to decline by two percentage points, including significant reductions by Spirit Airlines, which is exiting 36 overlapping routes and reducing frequencies by 30% across 41 others in December. This dynamic should drive sequential improvement in stage-adjusted RASM and supports our confidence as we plan for 2026.

We expect to return to growth next year, given the developing competitive landscape, and will provide formal 2026 capacity guidance on our next earnings update. To capitalize on emerging opportunities, we announced 42 new routes launching through early 2026, expanding our presence in major metro areas such as Atlanta, Baltimore, Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas-Fort Worth, Detroit, Fort Lauderdale, and Houston, along with new international destinations including Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas. These additions reinforce our commitment to scale and strengthen our network. Finally, I'm pleased to welcome Jeff Matthew as our new Chief Information Officer. Jeff brings deep experience leading large-scale IT organizations and will accelerate our digital transformation, enhancing customer engagement and driving efficiency. I'll now hand it over to Bobby to provide a brief loyalty update.

Bobby Schroeter (Chief Commercial Officer)

Thanks, Jimmy. The significant investments in our loyalty assets, including Frontier Miles, our co-brand credit card, Go Wild Pass, and Discount Den, generated approximately $7.50 in revenue per passenger in the third quarter, up more than 40% year-over-year, driven by enhancements that resonate with higher-income, higher-credit customers. Frontier Miles now offers the most attainable elite status in the industry, with meaningful benefits like premium seat upgrades, free bags, and unlimited companion travel. We have expanded redemption options through Miles for Bundles and improved boarding for our most loyal customers. In addition, cardholders receive two free checked bags, a benefit we introduced last year that has been very well received, and we recently introduced free companion passes with the credit card. These initiatives are fueling engagement and position us to double loyalty revenue per passenger over time, creating a durable, high-margin revenue stream. I'll turn it over to Mark now for the financial update.

Mark Mitchell (CFO)

Thanks, Bobby, and good afternoon, everyone. Recapping our cost performance during the third quarter, our non-fuel operating expenses were $729 million, down 6% sequentially, driven largely by fleet impacts associated with spare engine inductions and related sale lease-back financing gains. The increase in non-fuel expenses over the prior year quarter was primarily related to a one-time $38 million non-recurring credit tied to a legal settlement recognized in the 2024 quarter and fleet-related growth. On a unit basis, adjusted CASM ex fuel in the third quarter was $0.0753, 9% higher year-over-year, due largely to a 15% reduction in aircraft utilization resulting from our disciplined capacity deployment primarily on off-peak days. Fuel expense was $234 million, down 10% year-over-year, driven mainly by a 5% decrease in the average fuel cost, 4% lower capacity, and slightly higher fuel efficiency.

We generated 105 ASMs per gallon in the quarter, 2% higher than the corresponding 2024 quarter. Third quarter net loss was $77 million, including $1 million of tax expense, resulting in a net loss per share of $0.34 at the midpoint of our guidance. We ended the quarter with $691 million in total liquidity. In addition, post-quarter end, we issued a $105 million par value note in a private placement that is secured by substantially all of the spare parts and tooling related to our fleet of A320 family aircraft. The note matures in 2032. Pro forma for this transaction, liquidity on September 30 was approximately 21% of trailing 12 months' revenue. Briefly recapping fleet activity during the quarter, we took delivery of two A321neo aircraft, both financed with sale lease-back transactions, bringing our total aircraft fleet to 166 at quarter end.

We expect another 10 aircraft deliveries in the fourth quarter, our largest quarterly allocation of the year, comprised of seven A320neos and three A321neos, of which all have committed sale lease-back financing. Following the agreement with Pratt & Whitney executed in July, we took delivery of six GTF spare engines in the third quarter, all of which were financed with sale lease-back transactions. We expect to take delivery of another 10 GTF spare engines in the fourth quarter, which we also expect to finance with sale lease-back transactions. Turning to guidance, as provided in this afternoon's announcement, we expect fourth-quarter adjusted earnings between $0.04 and $0.20 per diluted share on capacity, which is expected to be roughly flat year-over-year. The average all-in fuel cost is expected to be $2.50 per gallon, which is $0.09 higher relative to the prior quarter forward curve indication.

Our fourth-quarter guidance reflects an expected improvement in competitive overlap capacity versus the prior year quarter, continued progress across key commercial initiatives, fleet-related financing activities, and jet fuel prices, which are elevated relative to the prior quarter guidance expectation. Lastly, we do not expect a material tax provision in the fourth quarter due to accumulative tax loss carry forward, which will largely offset any tax expense. Thanks again, everyone. Operator, we're ready to begin the Q&A segment.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. At this time, we will conduct the question-and-answer session. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your phone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from Ravi Shanker of Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.

Ravi Shanker (Analyst)

Great. Thanks, Dr. Everyone. Just a couple of questions on the competitive capacity here. Obviously, you guys are being pretty disciplined right now with flat growth next quarter, but what's the risk that the industry potentially fills in for the capacity that's coming out here and we end up in roughly the same situation that we had before?

Barry Biffle (CEO)

I don't think that's likely. Thanks for the question. Look, the capacity that's coming out right now is some of the lowest cost capacity and some of the lowest yielding customers. The only ones that could actually profit off that are actually us. I just don't see that being replaced by big airlines. It's not their business.

Ravi Shanker (Analyst)

Understood. Maybe a quick follow-up. Kind of how long do you think the tailwind here lasts? Kind of is this something that is really strong out the gate, kind of during the disruption, or do you think it gets kind of better, if you will, from your perspective, the longer it goes on?

Barry Biffle (CEO)

I wish I knew the answer to the pace of that. I mean, it is dribbling pretty good tailwind right now. Could that tailwind go from 30 mi an hour to 100 mi an hour? Possibly it increases, but we see a lot of tailwinds over the next year. At some point, it is going to change, but right now we see a pretty good path to a very good environment for Frontier.

Ravi Shanker (Analyst)

Understood. Thanks, guys.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Atul Maheswari of UBS. Your line is now open.

Atul Maheswari (Analyst)

Good evening. Thanks a lot for taking my question. I have a question on the government shutdown. There's just recent news that if a deal's not reached by November 7th, we're looking at 10% cuts across the top 40 airports. If that were to come to pass, what would be the financial impact on Frontier? Presumably, this could for RASM for the fourth quarter, but then you'd end up carrying excess costs. So maybe can you help us dimensionalize relative to your current guidance, like how much of an incremental risk this would be?

Barry Biffle (CEO)

Listen, we heard about this in the last 20 minutes just like you did. My knee-jerk reaction is we need to figure out how to make sure we can accommodate all of our customers. I guess the good news here is that we're in a low-demand period of November. I mean, the high demand obviously is Thanksgiving. I think we'll be able to accommodate everyone. I would actually expect, on balance, this is probably a positive just simply because of the RASM that we're going to generate on less flights. I think that the customer disruption is more my larger concern, but I don't see this being a major impact to us.

Atul Maheswari (Analyst)

Okay. Got it. That's fair. As my follow-up, Boeing recently announced that it's expecting certification to MAX 10 next year, and with some aircraft in inventory that it already has that is ready to be delivered upon certification. Assuming this does come to pass and this happens in 2026 and the legacies get hold of this aircraft, they're likely to use this higher-gauge asset to expand the basic economy type of offering, which directly competes with the product that you have in the marketplace. The question then is, how much of a risk does this present to Frontier next year and beyond, and what would you do to counter this risk going forward? Thank you.

Barry Biffle (CEO)

I think the main risk is probably anyone holding the residual value of a 73700. I don't think it's challenged us. I think if you look at the situation, we see less capacity in our markets, not more. I don't see basic economy improving. I mean, just think about that. Relatively decent at math. It doesn't improve your margins to expand basic economy selling product below your cost. I don't think that's going to be a major opportunity. You've seen across the industry, domestic profits have been under pressure. I think that cooler heads are going to prevail on capacity over the next year. This may enable them to be more efficient, but I think you actually see the lesser efficient aircraft leave the United States.

Atul Maheswari (Analyst)

Got it. Thanks for that and good luck with the rest of the year.

Barry Biffle (CEO)

Thank you. Thanks for being on.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Brandon Oglenski of Barclays. Your line is now open.

Brandon Oglenski (Analyst)

Comrades, good afternoon, and thanks for taking the question from the People's Commune of New York. Appreciate it. Barry, there is going to be free bus travel here, so I do not know. That might be a competitive mode looking forward. Barry, in all seriousness, can you talk to how Spirit cutting in November has maybe changed the pricing dynamic here closer in on the fourth quarter? Because I suspect that they were pretty close in books to begin with.

Barry Biffle (CEO)

Yeah. I think, look, I mean, look, we were really excited. I would say, two months ago when things started changing over there, and we started seeing some book away. I guess, probably second week of September, and unfortunately, what we believe is their book away caused them to drop their fares dramatically. We saw a significant drop to fares that had been improving, by the way. I mean, on our last call, we were staring at advance yields going up considerably year-over-year, and then they went down. Now we're getting into a better phase. The fares are now restoring. It did do damage to September and again to October. We're getting into the capacity cut phase. I think this will give a sugar high to them for RASM, right, because they would consolidate flights.

It is starting to show up and be meaningful to us. I do not think it is going to benefit this quarter that much, but like this morning, we have not had a chance to flow it through, but they pulled out of another five cities. I expect that this continues to improve, and we think it is pretty meaningful. Where they have cut, we have seen high single digits or plus RASM improvements where they are cutting. This is going to continue. I think this is going to be really meaningful for Frontier.

Brandon Oglenski (Analyst)

Okay. I appreciate that response. You guys talked a lot about loyalty on this call. I mean, can you give us your initial impact from Southwest, maybe recently, and more importantly, especially as you look to launch first class? Are you seeing more momentum on that angle?

Barry Biffle (CEO)

Yeah. Look, I mean, we have not gotten the benefit of first class yet, but we will work backwards from your question, and Jimmy or Bobby can chime in. First class is going to be wildly accretive, right, because we have not had that product, and we know the demand is there. That is going to be worth several points next year. I think if you look at the loyalty, there is no real benefit, I do not think, necessarily from Southwest. It is mainly all the investments we have made over the last year. I do not know, Bobby, if you want to kind of add to that.

Bobby Schroeter (Chief Commercial Officer)

Yeah. Hey, how's it going? This is Bobby. We talked about what we added quite a bit in terms of benefits that we've had over the past really year and a half to two years. A lot of that actually kind of building up to this past year as well as we transformed what we're providing, some of the elite tiers, the accessibility we're providing that. Look, in the end, we've created a program that is the most rewarding in the sky. It is something where people can get to these elite tiers much faster than you see with other airlines. They actually are getting those benefits, where it might be more difficult to see those at other airlines as well. We've talked before, you get a much higher conversion rate on seat upgrades at 80% on our top tiers. They're getting 80% upgrades to our top.

Premium seat upgrade there. They are also getting free bags, and we have added free companions on not only the higher elite tiers, but also that is unlimited companion travel, but also on the credit card, you are getting companion passes as you spend and hit certain milestones. Just a lot that we have put into this, and you are seeing the engagement there. Look, you have a lot of people out there that are disenfranchised with their other programs, whether those are airlines or other types of travel programs or other credit cards. We are providing an incredible value there, and you are seeing people not only engage in terms of acquisition, but also spend. I mean, spend was up tremendously year-over-year because people are wanting to move up that ladder in terms of elite status because they see the benefits that they are getting.

Barry Biffle (CEO)

Yeah. I would just add, I mean, and Brandon, you're old enough to remember, I mean, the Starwood program. In the 2000s was just amazing, and they kind of used their costs and so forth to build that loyalty. That credit card was one of the consistently one of the top-ranked cards. Now that we've kind of got it underway, we sat down a year and a half, two years ago and said, "We've got the lowest costs. We should be able to provide the most value in loyalty." We have made methodical changes over the last year, year and a half, as Bobby mentioned, and now we're starting to see the benefits of that. It's early. When you see a 40% jump to the loyalty ecosystem year-over-year, we're on a track.

We're doing in the $7-$7.5 range, and we can see that doubling in pretty short order. We're pretty excited about it. I think it's one of the key pillars to getting back to sustainable margins. It's a big part of what we're doing. The savings that people get are real. I mean, it's thousands of dollars a year that you can save if you use this card. To Bobby's point, when he mentioned kind of the disenfranchised, what we're seeing is the customer that just flies a couple of times a year on one of the big airlines, they don't have the actual tier that they need to get really upgraded. They're number 36 on the upgrade list. They never get upgraded. When they take that spend and put it on our card, they actually get rewarded with real loyalty.

They get real upgrades, and that upgrade is not going to be Upfront Plus next year, it's going to be first class. I think that we've just started. We're kind of in the first inning or two, but we are going to close the gap on loyalty revenues with the big guys. This is going to be a material part of our discussions, I think, in the quarters to come.

Bobby Schroeter (Chief Commercial Officer)

Yeah. And just a quick add too on first class. I mean, obviously, we're going to be selling that, and we anticipate a variety of the income coming from just people buying it outright. But that is a product that, again, those disenfranchised customers with other programs have the opportunity to get upgraded to that they would never see. And with us, they will be able to see that at a much lower rate. Therefore, they'll get it faster. So we're excited about that.

Brandon Oglenski (Analyst)

Thanks, both. Number 36 on the upgrade list sounds good to me. I'm usually way behind that. Thanks, guys.

Bobby Schroeter (Chief Commercial Officer)

Yeah.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Savanthi Syth of Raymond James. Your line is open.

Hey, guys. This is Carter on for Savanthi. I was wondering what you guys are seeing on pricing in your Spirit overlap markets relative to your other markets more broadly. Are you seeing anything different in Fort Lauderdale where you guys most recently added service?

Barry Biffle (CEO)

Yeah. Look, I mean, I think I mentioned this a while ago. We saw pricing go down after they filed. We've seen that kind of recover now. And we've seen our pricing, obviously, go up in those markets. I wouldn't say it's over, but then obviously, they're trimming capacity and pulling out, so there is no more pricing in some of those. I think it's stabilized.

Got it. Thanks. For my follow-up, I want to clarify. Does your earlier comment about returning to growth in 2026 mean you're no longer planning on having flattish capacity through the first half of 2026? Or is that more of just a comment of returning to growth in the back half?

It's a very dynamic situation right now. I mean, we're watching the competitive situation. Based on how that plays out, we have the ability to flex up or down. We believe there will be opportunities for us in our cost structure to kind of replace that capacity in several places. If so, that will dictate growth. We'll update everybody by Q1 at our next call because I think most of this, we believe most of this should be sorted out by then.

Got it. Thanks, guys.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael Linenberg of Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Shannon Doherty (Analyst)

Oh, hi. Yeah. This is Shannon Doherty on for Mike. Thanks for taking my question. Barry, earlier this year, we were talking about double-digit margins by the summer of 2025. Obviously, Liberation Day threw a monkey wrench into that plan. Do you see a path back to double-digit margins in 2026 with the current competitive landscape? If so, can you help us. Just help register from today?

Barry Biffle (CEO)

I mean, we did not plan on all of the things that happened in the turmoil in the front half this year and what has happened. I can tell you that as far as our pillars have kind of passed back to sustainable profitability. I think doubling our loyalty revenues from where it is, introducing first class, getting that premium, getting our fair share of that premium as well as the fair share of loyalty. I think the competitive capacity reduction, as we have talked about, that is going to be a huge tailwind for us going into next year. We are going to double down on our costs. I know everybody kind of accepts the inflation, but we are going to double down. We hope to have all that ready to lay out at the next call.

You're going to see kind of another wave of us kind of pushing further down on cost to ensure that we maintain a wide margin of cost advantage versus the industry. We're going to continue to improve our operation. Our complaints are down dramatically year-over-year. We continue to be kind of 30%-40% down every month year-over-year in complaints. That's kind of tied to what's happened with our improvement in the operation. I'm not going to declare the day we're going to get back to any margin target, but I can tell you that there's plenty of fundamentals that are in our favor at this point.

Shannon Doherty (Analyst)

Thanks for that. Maybe a follow-up on thinking about growth for next year. Will Spirit cutting deeper than 20% next year, maybe a lot more, be the determining factor of unlocking growth again? I mean, clearly, you are carrying a lot of extra costs taking down aircraft utilization, and you want to get back to growth. I am just trying to figure out what gets you there.

Jimmy Dempsey (President)

Yeah. Shannon, it's Jimmy here. Look, we're watching what's happening. In terms of network deployment across the industry, including Spirit at the moment. There's certainly opportunities that are existing. You've seen us launch some stuff across the United States in the last couple of months that fill in for some capacity that we think is going to be adjusted in their network. Whether that drives material growth next year or not, we don't know. We've got to see how things develop in the next two or three months. Hence, we're kind of deferring to the next earnings call to give you an insight into our growth. Clearly, we have a substantial body of aircraft that we can deploy to infiltrate any disruptive capacity that comes out of the marketplace in the next couple of months. We're positioned for that.

As I said in the last earnings call, it does take time from a growth perspective to hire and train pilots and get them deployed in our network. That is typically a six- to eight-month process. Any meaningful growth will occur sometime Q2 or Q3 or Q4 next year, depending on our view over the next couple of months and what we want to do in terms of growing the airline into opportunities that crop up.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Duane Pfennigwerth of Evercore ISI.

Duane Pfennigwerth (Analyst)

Hey, thank you. Just one question for me for the team. How has your thinking about consolidation of the ULCC sector evolved or changed over the last 90 days?

Barry Biffle (CEO)

It's great to hear from you, Duane. I don't know that it's changed. I think we're going to see, and I've said this before, I think you're going to see less capacity in the U.S. I don't know that that's a ULCC thing. I think it's just a domestic capacity thing. I think it'll be far beyond just the ULCC space. I think you're going to see a lot less seats. Consolidation is one of the mechanisms to help facilitate that. It's not the only way to get there. I do think there'll be less seats. There's another carrier that is not ULCC that we suspect is going to shrink a considerable amount over the next year. I think a seat is a seat, and the more that go out, it's probably constructive to the supply and demand balance as we move into 2026.

Duane Pfennigwerth (Analyst)

Okay. Thanks.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Scott Group of Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

Ryan Capozzi (Analyst)

Hey, this is Ryan Capozzi on for Scott. Aircraft utilization has been down pretty significantly so far this year. Just curious how we should think about utilization levels into Q4 and really more so into next year.

Mark Mitchell (CFO)

Yeah. I mean, from a utilization standpoint, I mean, I think to Jimmy's point, when you look at the lead time that's needed to ramp that up, I mean, from the environment that we sit in today, the overall macro environment, I think you'll see consistency in where we've been Q3 to Q4 from a utilization standpoint. But then as both Jimmy and Barry have mentioned, as you look into 2026, we need to evaluate what that landscape looks like and how we want to move forward with utilization. Obviously, the higher you're able to drive that, that brings down unit costs. So there's positive there, but you just need to balance that with the larger macro.

Jimmy Dempsey (President)

Yeah. And just to give a little context, there's two things going on with the fleet. One is, you have a delivery order book that can provide growth, and then you can also utilize your assets more. What we've been doing in the last eight to nine months is reducing some utilization on the asset base. What you're likely to see as you progress through next year is growth more on peak days than off-peak days through new aircraft deliveries, which is healthy growth coming into the business. Whether we choose to do higher utilization or not, that's something that we have to consider going into next year to see where the competitive capacity environment looks.

Ryan Capozzi (Analyst)

Got it. Appreciate the color there. I guess on competitive capacity, I think you had mentioned two percentage points of improvement in Q4. Any sense of what level of reductions you're expecting in Q1 here?

Jimmy Dempsey (President)

Look, we haven't quantified the level of reductions that we expect. As people solidify their schedules going into Q1, we'll have more of an insight into that in the coming month or two.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Jamie Baker of JP Morgan Securities. Your line is now open.

Hey, good afternoon. This is James on for Jamie. A lot of questions about domestic capacity, maybe just a question on the international routes you guys announced and what you're seeing there, particularly in how RASM is trending into Q4 and 2026.

Barry Biffle (CEO)

Yeah. I mean, so just you're talking about the fourth quarter starts. We've been seeing some pretty good results, happy with the new routes, specifically as you brought up within the Latin America kind of VFR or Latin VFR routes that are launching sort of in the holiday, Christmas, Three Kings peak period. Pretty excited about the results that we've been seeing so far.

Okay. Got it. For my second question, we're seeing smaller regional airlines enter the market. In the past few years, are you seeing any, particularly in the routes that maybe Spirit exited, are you seeing any of those airlines come in to fill that capacity that you're now competing with?

No, we're not really seeing that. I mean, look, I think the landscape has become pretty clear. I mean, Frontier has been the one to outplay and outlast. I don't think that. I don't see a new entrant trying to come in on some of the things that we're doing.

Okay. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Tom Fitzgerald of TD Cowen. Your line is open.

Tom Fitzgerald (Analyst)

Hi, everyone. Thanks so much for the time. I'm curious on the loyalty program, if you're where you're seeing the most strength in sign-ups, whether it's just kind of any place where you have a base or a decent enough schedule density, if there's particular markets that stand out.

Barry Biffle (CEO)

Yeah. Look, it's obviously where we have bases. We've got 13 bases. And then we've got large concentrations, right, in other cities, Raleigh, Baltimore, New York, and so forth. I mean, it's where you would expect. I mean, customers, you've got to be able to earn it when you fly, and you've got to be able to use it. It kind of fits our geography. I think the big thing that's changed, I mean, obviously, to see this kind of growth when we're not actually growing the airline right now is actually really impressive.

Bobby Schroeter (Chief Commercial Officer)

Yeah. I mean, exactly what Barry said, you're going to see where there's relevance on both the network and the program and where you can. You're looking for aspirational opportunities where you can go. And then, frankly, the benefits you can get from that. And we're hitting on all those things.

Tom Fitzgerald (Analyst)

Thanks so much. That's really helpful. Then just curious on first-class seating as you kind of just keep going up market. Do you assume any time for those products to mature in the market, or do you think it hits right away? I wonder if there's any kind of, if you're upgrading a lot at the beginning to kind of entice people to get them familiar with the product, if then it shows up in the revenue, but if a lot of it is upgrades or if there's a non-cash component. Thanks again for the time.

Barry Biffle (CEO)

Yeah. Thanks. Look, I mean, we're not expecting it to go to full maturity. That can take, honestly, years. I mean, but you're going to see an immediate benefit in the product moving to first from just having Upfront Plus. It took us about a year for Upfront Plus at first. A lot of people got it for free and so forth. Our top elites will get upgraded into it, which is what helps kind of feed the loyalty asset ecosystem. You're going to mature as more people figure it out. I mean, at the end of the day, we've observed in the United States a huge change in the appetite for leisure customers to pay for first-class seats. We believe that given our cost structure, we can deliver a first-class seat cheaper than anyone.

We're going to obviously benefit from not only having a premium product, but it's going to be priced at a level that you won't see for the big guys. I mean, I wouldn't be surprised that we're going to be priced under a premium economy seat in many cases. For us, I could double the revenue we're getting per passenger. It's great for us, and I think it's going to be great for consumers, but it could take one to three years to reach full maturity. It'll be huge. I think it's going to be huge, not just for kind of our revenue on board, but also in the credit card because at the end of the day, I mean, that frustration about people getting upgraded at the big airlines, you're going to get real value with Frontier with that product. It'll take time.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Daniel McKenzie of Seaport Global. Your line is open.

Daniel McKenzie (Analyst)

Oh, hey, good afternoon, guys. Thanks for the time here. I just have two house cleaning questions and then one other question just following up on Dwayne's. The house cleaning questions, it looks like full-time equivalents are down 6% year-over-year, but unit labor costs are up 10%. I'm just wondering if you can square that dynamic. I guess what I'm really wondering here is if it's just the beginning of sort of unit cost de-risking for future labor deals. The second house cleaning question is what percent of the network do you expect will be premiumized, so to speak, by year in 2026?

Barry Biffle (CEO)

There are several things going on on the salary, wage, and benefits. I mean, we stopped hiring flight attendants. What happens when you're looking at in your numbers, we actually were largely kind of right-sized, I guess, in the flight attendants, but we carried a lot, hundreds and hundreds of extra pilots. I think it's a little, I think it's just a mathematical nuance. As we get back to hiring flight attendants, as an example, I think you'll see the numerator and denominator change. I'm sorry, what was the second question?

Daniel McKenzie (Analyst)

Just the percent of the network that will be premiumized by year in 2026.

Barry Biffle (CEO)

Okay. 100% of the fleet will actually have the first-class product. Look, it's eight seats. We've got 202, give or take. I mean, it's going to be 4% of your seats. It's pretty rough. It's pretty simple math, right? If you take 4% of your seats and we end up getting paid close to double what we were getting on the others, once this is rolling out, this is a material jump in your RASM.

Daniel McKenzie (Analyst)

Yeah. Second question here, just following up on Dwayne's question, some of Spirit's creditors are pushing their management team for a merger, and Frontier is one of the most logical airlines, of course. I guess just to kind of push on that a little bit further, has that ship sailed as far as Frontier is concerned, just given the network overlap? Or is that, I guess my question really is, if that were to become a possibility at some point in the future, is that network overlap manageable, say, with carve-outs or gate give-backs?

Barry Biffle (CEO)

I'm not going to comment on merger. We spent a lot of time on this in the past. I've spoken about it a lot. We're not going to comment on it. I'll go back to we see significant opportunity for Frontier focusing on our business, and what we see is pretty significant tailwinds to our business due to competitive capacity. We don't see that changing. We've not seen anything that's going to change that opinion. Again, every day it seems to get better for us. I mean, they just closed another five cities or announced closing another five cities today, including Phoenix, St. Louis, Milwaukee. These are all key cities for Frontier. We see pretty good upside, but we're not talking about a merger.

Daniel McKenzie (Analyst)

Yep. Understood. Thanks so much.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Christopher Stathoulopoulos of SIG. Your line is open.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos (Analyst)

Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. Barry, I wanted to ask for an update on the revenue initiatives because there's a lot going on here. I heard $7.50 per passenger in the third quarter. The comment you made two questions ago, I think it was first-class priced. I think you gave a price point or you quantified a certain percentage below a basic economy seat or what I took to be an entry-level product versus, I'm assuming, network peers.

Barry Biffle (CEO)

I said premium economy on one of the big airlines, not basic.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos (Analyst)

Okay. Maybe I think that's an interesting point. If you could speak to, is that in select markets? I think you said that's going to take two to three years to mature. I think that's an important point and one that I hope you could give some more comment on.

Barry Biffle (CEO)

I think we'll get somewhere between 60%-80% of the benefit within the first year, right? I think for fully mature, it will take you a few years. But it will be additive, incremental. It will be positive ROI within months. I mean, and so when you think about the pricing, I'll just go back to the pricing. I mean, I think if you look where we fly today, it's not uncommon for us to have a $49 fare. Maybe the Legacy's got a $69, $79 basic economy, but then they're $400 or $500 for first class. And so I think you could see us easily being in that $200-$250 range for first class. And it's going to be a smacking deal for anybody that wants to fly first class, but it's going to be a huge improvement. I mean, we're going to take.

Four seats off the plane that were actually the lowest fares that we were selling, and they're now going to become the highest fares we're selling. That's a huge move on your RASM when you do something like that. This will be a massive improvement to us. I mean, look, the pricing is going to be dynamic by route, by day, and depending upon the situation.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos (Analyst)

Okay. Great. Thank you. The comment on the down to competitive capacity for the fourth quarter, I'm guessing that's your system or select routes. If there are any markets where you're seeing, I guess, better or worse in so far as additions or deletions from competitors. Thanks.

Barry Biffle (CEO)

Yeah. I mean, there's a number of routes where, I mean, Jimmy spoke about this in his prepared remarks, but. Jimmy, I don't know if you want to remind them of the numbers there.

Jimmy Dempsey (President)

Yeah. We've seen a significant change in two areas. One is where they've exited markets. We've seen them exit about 36 routes that overlap with us. We've also seen a significant reduction in frequencies, about 30% across 41 other markets. It is a considerable change in overlap capacity between us and Spirit. It is across the system in a lot of cases.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos (Analyst)

Okay. Thank you.

Jimmy Dempsey (President)

A predominance, particularly in the west.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos (Analyst)

Great. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. I am showing no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn it back to the Chief Executive Officer, Barry Biffle, for closing remarks.

Barry Biffle (CEO)

Hey, I want to thank everybody for calling in. We're really excited about the future, and things have really kind of turned around from a foundational perspective. I look forward to updating you again and talking to you again in the new year.

Operator (participant)

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.