Frontier Group Holdings - Earnings Call - Q4 2024

Executive Summary

• Record quarterly revenue and a cleaner P&L: Q4 revenue reached $1.002B (+12% YoY) with GAAP pre-tax margin 5.1% and net income $54M ($0.23 diluted EPS), aided by disciplined capacity deployment and fuel at $2.48/gal.
• Unit revenue inflected strongly: RASM rose 15% YoY to 10.23¢ on lower capacity (-2% YoY) as Frontier focused flying on peak days and matured its base network; total revenue per passenger rose 6% to $117.
• Cost and efficiency: CASM was 9.78¢ (vs 8.93¢ LY) with adjusted CASM ex-fuel SLA 1,000 at 6.95¢ (+21% YoY), reflecting deliberately lower utilization (-15%) and higher airport costs, partly offset by cost-savings; fuel efficiency hit a company record 106 ASMs/gal.
• Guidance reset and catalysts: 2025 adjusted diluted EPS guided to at least $1.00; Q1 2025 guided to breakeven to $0.07 on assumed fuel of ~$2.60/gal. Management targets double‑digit adjusted pre‑tax margins in summer 2025; CFO narrowed guidance to EPS, capex and PDP—an investor-friendly simplification. Street consensus (S&P Global) was unavailable to benchmark Q4; however, Q4 pre‑tax margin materially exceeded prior Q4 guidance of 0–2% (given on 10/29/24).
• Stock setup: An analyst noted “good to see the stock up today” on the call; key near-term stock catalysts include the at least $1.00 FY25 EPS target, summer double‑digit margin aspiration, and loyalty/premium initiatives ramping through 2025.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Material unit revenue improvement: RASM +15% YoY to 10.23¢ on reduced capacity and peak-day focus—management said changes “set us on a trajectory for significant year-over-year RASM growth in 2025”.
• Operational reliability and efficiency: 99.4% completion factor in December; record fuel efficiency of 106 ASMs/gal supports the “America’s Greenest Airline” positioning.
• Strategic revenue levers gaining traction: UpFront Plus achieved >70% sold load factors in Q4; premium first-class product and app/loyalty upgrades expected to bolster mix and engagement in 2025–2026.

What Went Wrong

• Higher non-fuel unit costs: Adjusted CASM ex‑fuel SLA 1,000 rose 21% YoY to 6.95¢ on lower utilization (–15%) and higher airport costs; management argues the trade‑off improved margins by avoiding money‑losing off‑peak flying.
• Load factor remains pressured by day‑of‑week dynamics: Flown LF was ~78% amid structurally weaker Tue/Wed/Sat demand; management is concentrating capacity on peak days until mid‑week demand normalizes.
• Estimates benchmarking unavailable: S&P Global consensus (EPS/revenue) could not be retrieved in this session, limiting beat/miss assessment vs Street; however, ULCC clearly beat its own prior Q4 pre‑tax margin guidance (0–2% guided vs 5.1% actual).

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Frontier Group Holdings Inc. Q4 and full year 2024 earnings call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, David Erdman, Senior Director, Investor Relations.

David Erdman (Senior Director of Investor Relations)

Thank you, and good morning. Welcome to our fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings call. On the call this morning are Barry Biffle, Chief Executive Officer, Jimmy Dempsey, President, Mark Mitchell, Chief Financial Officer, and Bobby Schroeter, Chief Commercial Officer. Each will deliver brief, prepared remarks, but before they do, let me recite the customary safe harbor provisions. During the call, we will be making forward-looking statements which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those predicted in these forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning risk factors which could cause such differences are outlined in the announcement we released earlier, along with reports we file with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We will also discuss non-GAAP financial measures, actual results of which are reconciled to the nearest comparable GAAP measure in the appendix of this morning's earnings announcement.

I'll now yield the floor to Barry to begin his prepared remarks. Barry.

Barry Biffle (CEO)

Thanks, David, and good morning, everyone. Our fourth quarter results demonstrate the momentum of our commercial initiatives, placing us on a trajectory for meaningful rise in growth and margin expansion this year, including our target of double-digit pre-tax margins in the summer. Our fourth quarter adjusted pre-tax margin was 5.1%, significantly higher than the original guidance, resulting from the culmination of our revenue and network optimization initiatives and our longstanding commitment to cost discipline. I'd like to thank Team Frontier for their contributions to achieving solid margins in the quarter and for our operational performance during the busy holiday travel season. While operating our busiest ever schedule in December, Frontier ranked second among U.S. carriers in completion factor. We expect our industry-leading costs, combined with our continued progress on our commercial initiatives, will support significant margin expansion in 2025.

Our cost advantage extended to 48% in 2024 compared to 41% in 2023 and just 39% in 2019, and we will continue to leverage this advantage to stimulate demand and generate profitable growth. I'll now turn the call over to Jimmy for a commercial review. Jimmy.

Jimmy Dempsey (President)

Thanks, Barry, and good morning, everyone. Briefly recapping results, total operating revenue in the fourth quarter increased 12% versus the prior year quarter to a record $1 billion on 2% lower capacity. RASM was $0.1023, 15% higher, with stronger-than-expected demand in December. Departures increased 3% on an 8% shorter average stage. Total revenue per passenger was $117, up 6% versus the prior year quarter, due to a 26% increase in fare revenue partly offset by slightly lower ancillary revenue per passenger. We completed 2024 with a record 33 million passengers traveling with Frontier, 10% higher than 2023. We launched 22 new routes in December, spanning coast to coast. Over two-thirds of these routes were launched from one of our 13 crew bases as we leverage our investments in these stations to build scale and reliability to our simplified network.

The largest launch was from our Tampa base, where we added service to Boston, Dulles, Chicago O'Hare, Portland, and Burlington, and we added four routes from Chicago to Fort Myers, Tampa, Palm Beach, and Sarasota. We also continued to expand at LAX, adding service to Houston, Salt Lake City, Portland, and Seattle. Moreover, we launched new service to key leisure destinations Palm Springs and Vail Eagle, both accessible from our Denver crew base and other key stations, including DFW and San Francisco. Looking ahead, our pivot to a more balanced capacity deployment is expected to enable Frontier to outperform domestic carriers on our RASM recovery. We invested heavily in adjusting our network throughout 2024 by initially reducing exposure to oversupplied markets, followed by managing our day-of-week capacity deployment to match demand patterns.

This change, in addition to helping improve the margin performance of the business, has created a resilient network that enables speedy operational recovery from irregular operations. The setup of a more disciplined industry capacity deployment this year provides a positive backdrop for unit revenue improvements that meet our targets. Building on 2024, we have shaped our monthly capacity deployments to be at our highest in the peak travel periods. Capacity growth in the first quarter is expected to be up mid-single digits versus the prior year quarter. Average stage length this year will be marginally higher compared to 2024. As we finalize our schedules into the second half of the year, our expectation is that we will manage capacity to align with demand, and we'll provide more details as the year progresses.

I want to congratulate our network and operations teams for all the great work that's been done establishing our 13-base network over the past 18 months. We are seeing the benefit of our maturing base network benefiting our revenue performance and, importantly, the operations performance of the airline. As Barry noted, we finished second in the industry in completion factor in December, inclusive of the busy holiday period. I'll now hand it over to Bobby to provide a brief overview of the next chapter of the new Frontier and the innovative ways we're enhancing our customers' travel experience.

Bobby Schroeter (CCO)

Thanks, Jimmy, and good morning, everyone. Beyond the operational improvements that Jimmy highlighted, we are also focused on enhancing additional parts of the customer experience in ways that drive demand, strengthen engagement, and create long-term financial value. As part of the new Frontier, we are making targeted investments that improve how customers interact with Frontier at every stage of their journey. Premium seating is a key focus, providing customers with more choice while driving revenue growth. UpFront Plus, introduced last year, has performed very well, attracting customers willing to pay for added comfort. Building on this success, we will launch a two-by-two first-class product at an affordable price point in late 2025. This will enhance the experience for customers seeking more space while attracting higher-yielding travelers who typically book premium products on other airlines. We are also making significant upgrades to the digital experience.

With more than 80% of customers using our app for check-in and airport services, we are launching a redesigned, more intuitive version to improve how customers interact with Frontier. The Android app will launch very shortly, followed by iOS, with a redesigned website coming later this year. This stronger focus on customer experience, coupled with our low fares, will naturally foster loyalty, and we are building on that foundation with strengthening Frontier Miles to drive greater engagement and long-term value. Over the past year, we introduced free checked bags for cardholders and simplified the path to elite status, making the program more competitive. We recently announced plans to expand mileage redemption beyond airfare to include ancillary purchases. We also introduced complimentary premium seat upgrades for elite members and announced upcoming free unlimited companion travel for Platinum and Diamond members, both of which further enhance the appeal of elite status.

Since launching free checked bags in August and rolling out our latest program updates, we've seen strong early results. Co-brand card acquisitions are up 35%, and spend for cardholder increased 11% year-over-year in fourth quarter. Loyalty remains a significant financial opportunity. Today, our co-brand revenue per passenger is under $3, compared to over $30 at legacy and other low-cost carriers. Even capturing a fraction of the legacy and low-cost carrier levels represents a meaningful and achievable growth opportunity over the next few years. All of these efforts, operational improvements, premium product expansion, digital enhancements, and a more rewarding frequent flyer program, work together to create a smoother, more enjoyable travel experience while diversifying revenue and strengthening Frontier's financial position.

By offering more choice, improving the travel experience, and increasing reliability, we are deepening customer engagement, strengthening our brand, and driving both near and long-term value for our customers and the company. With that, I'll turn it over to Mark for the financial update.

Mark Mitchell (CFO)

Thanks, Bobby, and good morning, everyone. Briefly recapping the quarter, total revenue was just over $1 billion, 12% higher than the 2023 quarter. Fuel expense totaled $229 million, 24% lower than the 2023 quarter, driven by a 22% decrease in the average fuel cost, which was $2.48 per gallon for the quarter. We also generated a record 106 ASMs per gallon during the quarter, a 1% fuel efficiency improvement over the prior year. Adjusted non-fuel operating expenses were $728 million. Within guidance, we're $0.0695 per ASM on a stage-adjusted basis to 1,000 miles.

The increase from the prior year quarter is mainly due to a 15% reduction in average daily aircraft utilization, resulting from our disciplined capacity deployment that has proven to be margin accretive. An increase in airport costs due in part to a larger proportion of high-revenue pull stations in our mix, partly offset by our cost savings program launched in the third quarter of 2023. The 2023 quarter also includes a $36 million reduction in fleet-related costs driven by the extension of four aircraft leases. On a full-year basis for 2024, adjusted CASM, excluding fuel, stage-adjusted to 1,000 miles, was down 1.2% versus the prior year, consistent with guidance. Fourth quarter pre-tax income was $51 million, yielding a 5.1% margin, and net income was $54 million, or $0.23 per diluted share.

Net income includes a $3 million income tax benefit resulting from the release of the valuation allowance related to our net operating loss deferred tax asset in conjunction with the pre-tax earnings generated during the quarter, along with the impact of share-based compensation activity. We ended the year with $935 million of total liquidity, comprised of unrestricted cash and cash equivalents of $730 million and $205 million of availability from our undrawn revolving line of credit. Our total liquidity represents approximately 25% of trailing 12-month revenue, a significant increase compared to 21% at the end of September and 17% at the end of 2023.

The increase versus the prior quarter is driven by the $64 million of EBITDA generated in the fourth quarter, $40 million of proceeds received from the legal settlement we disclosed previously, other working capital benefits, and PDP-related activity, partly offset by approximately $30 million of capital expenditures. We had 159 aircraft in our fleet at quarter end after taking delivery of six A321neo aircraft during the fourth quarter, all financed with sale-leaseback transactions. We expect to take delivery of four A321neos in the first quarter, all of which have committed sale-leaseback financing. To recap our fleet plan for the remainder of the year, we expect to take delivery of another four A321neo aircraft in the second quarter and two in the third quarter, while the 11 deliveries expected in the fourth quarter will be split by type: three A321neos and eight A320neos.

These expected deliveries also have committed sale-leaseback financing. Our first quarter and full-year guidance was published in the earnings announcement we issued this morning. We made the decision this quarter to narrow our guidance metrics to EPS, CAPEX, and PDP in order to more closely align expectations with our focus on delivering bottom-line results. With that, our adjusted diluted earnings per share for the first quarter is estimated to be in the range of break-even to $0.07 per share, a significant improvement from the loss per share of $0.12 per share in the comparable prior year quarter, driven by the continued strength expected from our revenue and network initiatives. We expect full-year 2025 adjusted diluted EPS to be at least $1 per share based on the blended jet fuel curve on February 4th, 2025.

We expect to maintain a cost advantage of over 40% this year based on peer consensus in our internal forecast. Capital spending, including capitalized heavy maintenance, is expected to be $175 million-$235 million, and pre-delivery payments, net of refunds, is expected to be $10 million-$45 million. With that, I'll turn the call back to Barry for closing remarks.

Barry Biffle (CEO)

Thanks, Mark. The transformational changes we've implemented during 2024 are creating a strong foundation for margin expansion in 2025, with double-digit pre-tax margins expected this summer. I'm proud of Team Frontier for their contributions to this improved outlook, and I'm excited to be working alongside them as we deliver an exceptional customer experience and the best overall value in air travel. Before we turn to Q&A, I wanted to make a brief statement to address our proposal from Frontier with Spirit that we disclosed last week. Our proposal offers more value than Spirit's standalone plan. This includes substantial value for equity holders who will otherwise receive nothing through Spirit's plan with the bankruptcy court. As a combined airline, we would be positioned to provide more options and deeper savings, as well as enhanced travel experience and service for consumers.

We would also be able to provide better career opportunities for team members. We stand ready to engage with Spirit regarding our proposal and note their disclosure yesterday to extend the tender deadline for their equity rights offering by a week. We obviously know Spirit very well and are prepared to move quickly to engage to make this compelling opportunity happen. With that said, today, we're here to discuss our 2024 financial results and go forward guidance. We ask that you please keep your questions focused on these topics. Thanks again for joining us this morning. Operator, we're ready to begin the Q&A segment.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. One moment for questions. Our first question comes from Brandon Oglenski with Barclays. You may proceed.

Brandon Oglenski (Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

Hey, good morning, everyone, and thanks for taking the question. And Barry, good to see the stock up today. Your guidance didn't provide a lot of details on the metrics, and I guess in some sense, that's actually refreshing. But can you give us a sense of where you're seeing some of your unit trends on revenue and cost and how you think that's going to play out in 2025 within the context of the guidance range?

Barry Biffle (CEO)

Look, I mean, you can see very clearly that our revenue trends are really performing well on the heels of what we've done to the network, which was mainly started last year, kind of in the May, June timeframe. So we'll kind of annualize that by the time we get there. So there's still a lot kind of in the tank, if you will, just from the network initiatives. And we're really just getting started kind of on the new frontier. So we made the merchandising changes, but all of the premium focus that Bobby mentioned with the seating, the first class doesn't even begin until the end of this year, and the loyalty, there's just a lot of tailwinds still to come on the revenue side.

On the cost side, as Mark mentioned, we're planning to continue to maintain over 40% cost advantage, which will be up versus 2019. So we have pretty much ensured that our place, even including potential labor contracts in the future, will ensure that we continue to maintain our cost advantage versus our peers.

Brandon Oglenski (Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

Appreciate that, Barry, and then maybe can you elaborate a little bit more because you've had so many changes on the commercial side? What initiatives are gaining traction right now? Because I know first class isn't going to be for another year, right? But are you seeing traction with some of the premium options you've already put in the market and the bundled fares that you launched last year?

Jimmy Dempsey (President)

Yeah, Brandon, it's Jimmy here. Look, we've spent the last about 18 months trying to adjust our network to meet the demand patterns that exist in today's environment as you move beyond the COVID recovery period and into normalized kind of growth in the industry, and also reflecting on overcapacity that we saw in certain markets that we flew to kind of at the back end of 2023 and into 2024. And so what we've done is really shape the week in a better way where we focus a lot of our flying on peak days. It goes to the expense of off-peak days of the week. And so we're obviously seeing an improved unit revenue performance as a result of that network shaping.

But we've also launched over that period quite a dramatic change in the way we operate our business with an out-and-back network from 13 bases across the United States. And we suffered from immaturity throughout last year as we established that network. One of the things that you're seeing from a revenue perspective is some maturity coming into that business where bases that were launched in March, April, May last year, even though they're still in their first year of operation, they're starting to mature and mature relatively quickly. And we saw that in the peak period in December where we outperformed our own expectations in terms of revenue performance. And we're seeing really strong demand patterns across that network, particularly focused on that peak days of the week.

I'll hand it over to Bobby to talk about some of the diverse products that we're launching and progressing through this year to build a stronger, more diversified revenue base, which will be foundational for the business for the next three or four years.

Bobby Schroeter (CCO)

Yeah. So you talk about the New Frontier, and we're using that as generally an umbrella statement around a variety of different topics, some of those of which have customer experience benefits and have near and long-term revenue benefits. So, of course, we've talked before about the premium seating that we've put in place. We're seeing revenue benefit right now from what we implemented last year with UpFront Plus, very good load factors within that, still some upside opportunity that exists there, and upside opportunity that exists when we think about how do we make that more flexible within the cabin as well when we introduce what's coming later in the year with the two-by-two first-class product. So quite a bit of opportunity there just in terms of direct sales.

But some of the things that we've started tying these experiences into, and really with a big focus on us in the near term in terms of transforming, but something that we think is a very large level of value, but will take some time to achieve that value, is the loyalty program. And so we made a variety of changes within the loyalty program over the past year. And more recently, some of the big things that we introduced there are tying into some of these premium products. So we think about this as this ecosystem that we can play into and utilize to provide a better experience, create more appeal around the elite side. And frankly, with that better experience overall, that'll create more loyalty that'll want people to engage more on the loyalty program itself. So we saw recent benefits.

I already talked about that in the initial comments, but we anticipate that growing as we move through and people start to understand and see those benefits. Other carriers, one of the things that they have are a tremendous amount of folks who have status but aren't able to actually capture value within that status. We're going to be able to provide value to folks like that. So we're excited about what that is. Like I said, we're under $3, frankly, per passenger. Other carriers are $30 and over. We're not sitting there saying that we're going to absolutely get to that level, but even a fraction of that is a massive opportunity for us that we're moving towards very quickly, and we anticipate, again, seeing some near-term value, but the biggest amount of value is going to come over the course of a few years within that.

Brandon Oglenski (Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

Appreciate the detailed response. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael Linenberg with Deutsche Bank. You may proceed.

Michael Linenberg (Research Analyst)

Yeah. Hey, good morning, everybody. Can you talk about the month of December looked exceptionally strong from a RASM perspective, and I get the sense that that's going to carry through into the first quarter. But then how much of an Easter effect is going to impact you, if anything?

Barry Biffle (CEO)

Yeah, Michael, I can start. Look, I think December was very strong. We finally got a lot of our changes in, kind of the day-of-week changes, as well as we're starting to see a little bit of the maturity start to come into the markets, as Jimmy mentioned. The Easter effect is going to be a drag on Q1. It's always difficult to tell, and I don't think we've had it quite this late kind of post-pandemic in this full recovery, but it's at least one to two points on the quarter, and we see pretty strong March as a result. Generally speaking, and we've talked about this a lot and looked back, it's generally good for the front half, even though it's a drag on Q1, right?

So even if you get it up to two-point hit, your overall for the first half will actually be better because Q2 is going to be that much stronger.

Bobby Schroeter (CCO)

Yeah. And I'll just add, I mean, on the spring break period, which obviously goes into that, seeing good demand there. Some of the big bases we have actually for spring break have the spring break in the March time period. And our network planning team, of course, considers that when we're thinking about capacity planning. So there is a drag in that regard. There's also, from a spring break period perspective, some of that actually cuts into March itself.

Jimmy Dempsey (President)

Yeah. And just to add to what the guys have said, Michael, you look at this closely, right, in terms of the capacity deployment by month across the industry. If you look at our capacity deployment within the month for March and April, you'll see that there's significantly more capacity deployed in the peak travel weeks of March and the peak weeks that we see in April. And so that's one of the things that we're doing that's a little bit different than what we previously did when we deployed capacity. We're trying to match as best we can the assets that we have in the business, like pilots and obviously aircraft, to outperform in peak weeks of the year and then manage the business through the off-peak periods. And I think that's one big change that's happened in the business in the last 12 months.

You can see has been quite positive in terms of the performance in the fourth quarter, which really was the first full quarter that we deployed this network of managing off-peak days and peak days of the week and off-peak periods and peak periods of the quarter in a better fashion.

Michael Linenberg (Research Analyst)

Great. Thanks. And just my follow-up, I guess to Mark, when we think about where you're headed from a profitability perspective, we're going to start seeing taxes feature more prominently. And yet we could see that in this quarter, you're getting benefits. How should we think about your NOL position, which I think is actually pretty sizable? And from a cash taxpayer perspective, are we not going to see you paying any cash taxes until maybe late this decade? How should we think about it as we're modeling your cash flows out over the next few years? Thanks for taking my questions.

Mark Mitchell (CFO)

Yeah, no problem, Michael. Yeah. So from a high level, when you look at number one, from a rate perspective, the valuation allowance that is remaining, that as that valuation allowance is released, as we generate earnings, will impact our rate. There's roughly $19 million of that allowance remaining as you look into this year. And then when you think about the cash tax opportunity, so beyond the shield that is tied to that valuation allowance, there's another roughly $30 million or so of cash opportunity. And so based upon the earnings we expect to generate this year, we certainly think we'll be able to take advantage of that NOL benefit. But this isn't going to be a multi-year item.

Michael Linenberg (Research Analyst)

Okay. Thanks for the clarifying.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Duane Pfennigwerth with Evercore ISI. You may proceed.

Jake Gunning (Equity Research Senior Associate)

Hey, good morning. This is Jake Gunning on for Duane. Just given all the network changes that you had in 2024, I know you're keeping it high level. Can you just maybe speak to the network priorities for 2025?

Jimmy Dempsey (President)

I mean, it's really to build on the structural change that we made in the business in 2024. I mean, as the airline grows in the next two, three years, you'd expect to see us advance from 13 bases to more bases. I'm not going to pre-announce where they are, but as we see a benefit both from a revenue and commercial perspective, but importantly also from an operational perspective, bases or airports performing well for the business, we'll move to have more than 13 bases as we deliver the aircraft from Airbus and grow the airline. We like the shape of the 13 bases across this year. We may seed some bases going into 2026 and 2027 that advances the network, but it'll be similar to what we've done in the last year and a half, just maybe not as aggressively as we changed through 2024.

So more modest immaturity in the business and getting the benefit then of maturity coming into the business from stabilization in these base airports and also the airports that we fly to from those locations. And look, our maturity profile in our business is far, far stronger, particularly in Q2 and Q3 this year than it was in Q2 and Q3 last year where we tried to push the airline back to a full utilization basis and grow seat capacity quite aggressively. That led to quite an immature network that is lapping now, which is a good thing. And you're starting to see that in the results of the business.

Jake Gunning (Equity Research Senior Associate)

Okay. And then just to clarify on the cost advantage spread to competitors, is that total CASM plus net interest? And then you're targeting 40% on that, but are there any quarters in the year where you would expect that to expand or contract, just given any lumpiness in your costs?

Mark Mitchell (CFO)

Yeah. So first of all, that is the total CASM plus net interest. So I mean, as we think about cost, it's important to us that we're looking at cost overall. So anytime we've given that metric, we're looking at it in total. And we've got a footnote in the release that speaks to the specific calculation. But then beyond that, we're not getting into specifics for the quarter. I mean, we have worked very hard to remain cost-disciplined. Obviously, we have increased that advantage. And as we progress through this year, what we think is important is that we remain committed to being cost-disciplined, and we remain committed to having that advantage be over 40%.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Savi Syth with Raymond James. You may proceed.

Savanthi Syth (Managing Director)

Hey, good morning, everyone. If I look at yours kind of taking a step back, if I look at one first quarter, it looks like you're seeing three to five points of yearly improvement in margin, and to get to kind of double digits by the summer, that kind of requires 7 to 10 points, so maybe you're halfway there. I'm guessing most of that kind of comes from the revenue side, but I was wondering if you can talk a little bit about how much of that comes from maybe your market maturity being higher than it is today or maybe the premium products doing better than today. Just trying to understand what drives that kind of incremental three to five points of margin improvement versus what you're already seeing in the first quarter.

Barry Biffle (CEO)

Yeah. Oh, you go.

Yeah. Thanks, Savvy. So I think first, remember that 3 to 5 points is kind of including Easter. So it's really more like five to seven, I think. So then the bridge, then just seasonality alone pretty much should get you to your 10 points by summer. But in addition to that, you've got the market maturity that we've talked about coming in as well as the other revenue initiatives. So you just look at those kind of trajectory. It's becoming pretty clear to us. And I think the other thing you can do is you can just look historically kind of relationships, just look at the sequential 4Q to 1Q minus Easter seasonality. I think you just get there. But yeah, on top of just seasonality, you've got plenty coming in from network maturity and from revenue initiatives.

Savanthi Syth (Managing Director)

And I know you mentioned just giving further color on capacity later on. I'm just wondering if you could kind of help guardrail that for us and to kind of add a final point to the maturity comment. Where are you in terms of and I'm guessing that applies to percentage of new markets. How do you see that progressing over the next few quarters? And where is it today, and how do you see it progressing?

Barry Biffle (CEO)

We have flexibility in our capacity. So as you can see, I mean, we just closed the near term, but we don't see a whole lot of growth in the first half for sure. We're looking at the second half, and we're monitoring it. We're not going to commit to a capacity growth number until we see where things are at. We have flexibility with utilization and other things we can do. We're committed to an earnings number. So if we see the RASM not coming in, we're going to dial back capacity. If we see getting significantly ahead, we have the opportunity to play with several points there in capacity. We're not going to commit to that yet until we see how the summer starts to shape up. We'll know that probably in the next few months.

Savanthi Syth (Managing Director)

On the maturity side, I'm sorry, just how many what's the percentage of new markets today versus where it will be in the next couple of quarters?

Barry Biffle (CEO)

It will continue to go down as a result of the maturity. Yeah. I would say we get.

Jimmy Dempsey (President)

Go ahead.

Bobby Schroeter (CCO)

Yeah. We'd get closer to more historical norms. I mean, it's been high, of course, as you've seen over the past really six months plus. So that'll shrink, as Barry said, as we progress through.

Jimmy Dempsey (President)

I mean, to put numbers on it, Savi, we had immature markets of well over 20% last year. I mean, that's at least half of that, if not less than that in certain periods of the year. And so you're seeing that maturity. And these are still relatively young in terms of haven't actually performed for more than a year yet, but they are maturing and maturing relatively quickly. And so I think the network team has deployed the aircraft in a way that allows us to manage the business this year without carrying a significant portion of immaturity. And so having less than half the immature network that we had last year is really helpful to us.

Savanthi Syth (Managing Director)

All very helpful color. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley. You may proceed.

Ravi Shanker (Equity Research Analyst)

Great. Thanks. So great to see the improvement kind of as you had said last year, kind of actually coming through with double-digit margins, etc. So over $1 of earnings in 2025, kind of how do you think about that kind of in terms of a normalized EPS and the outlook here? Kind of where's the ultimate destination here? Obviously, not asking you for 2026 guidance, but kind of what do you think you can achieve kind of when this is fully normalized?

Barry Biffle (CEO)

Look, I think if we get to 10% margins, you can kind of do the math. I mean, we're trending to call it $5 billion airline by next year. We've actually got some filings out there as you could go look where we think this is headed, so.

Ravi Shanker (Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. And just in terms of the premium traction here, kind of I think there's some debate as to kind of ultra-low-cost carriers putting in premium products on their planes and kind of what the reception is going to be. So have you guys commissioned the customer surveys? Kind of what's the initial reaction on the customer feedback to the potential for you guys putting in a first-class product and a co-brand and kind of trying to launch somewhat of a more premium product here?

Barry Biffle (CEO)

I'm glad you asked that. So the feedback was good. We surveyed, but we got something better than that. We actually launched our UpFront Plus product, which is just a blocked middle seat European-style business class. And we achieved over 70% sold load factors in the fourth quarter. And that's within six months of launching it. So we're pretty jazzed about our customers looking for a premium experience. And we're not stealing share or anything. This is just customers that were already on board willing to pay for a better experience. So they're telling us, yes, that they want first class, but we're focused on the data. And the data says that the consumers have changed, and they're willing to pay for a premium product. And we're excited to deliver it to them.

Bobby Schroeter (CCO)

Yeah, and I just add, I mean, look, we can deliver this at a lower cost than others, so when you talk about the affordability of these products, that to us, combined with the survey and the data we have from UpFront Plus, says that this is a really good product for us that should be accretive.

Ravi Shanker (Equity Research Analyst)

Understood. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Scott Group with Wolfe Research. You may proceed.

Ryan Capozzi (Senior Associate)

Hey, good morning. This is Ryan Capozzi on for Scott. So last year on about 5% capacity growth, load factors were down four and a half points, but yields were up double digits. Just curious how you see this load factor yield dynamic playing out this year given another year of, call it, roughly mid-single-digit growth.

Barry Biffle (CEO)

Yeah. Well, one thing I would point out is that we report flown, not booked. So we tend to trend between 7% to 9% no-show, which is up significantly since pre-COVID. So I think you need to add a few points to kind of normalize. But the biggest issue has been we continue to see it. Tuesday, Wednesday, Saturdays are just not in demand like they were pre-COVID. And that's why we've reshaped the capacity to that demand. And so I think you're going to see load factors improve because of that shaping as we get through the year. Now, if work from home were to go back and kind of shift and people go back to more normal patterns, then I think Tuesday, Wednesday might improve again. But right now, we're not making that change to increase utilization on Tuesday, Wednesday until we see it.

I know there's a lot of discussion now recently about how much more people going back to the office will start to improve the Tuesday, Wednesday for the industry. But I think that's going to be something that ourselves and I would suspect the whole industry will watch this year, and I think it's probably a benefit to 2026 and beyond, but not yet.

Ryan Capozzi (Senior Associate)

Got it. Helpful color. And then just within revenue last year, average fares were up modestly, but ancillary revenue per passenger was down high single digits. Just curious how you see these two segments sort of unfolding this year and maybe even into next year.

Jimmy Dempsey (President)

Yeah. Don't underestimate the impact that stage has on unit per pass or unit revenue performance or unit per passenger performance. I mean, we shrunk the stage quite dramatically last year as we deployed the new network. And so it drives more sectors per day per aircraft, more passengers, but slightly less revenue on a unit basis from an ancillary perspective in the business. We like the shape of the network. You can see the results that are coming. And so we've got to balance the way we've shortened the stage a little bit with the unit performance of ancillary products. I mean, we're really focused, if you can listen to what everybody is saying on this call, we're very focused on the bottom line and performance to hit the bottom line.

We feel a shorter stage with more departures per aircraft per day is a good place for the airline to be in today's environment. That drives a metric like you're seeing in terms of non-ticket being slightly down.

Ryan Capozzi (Senior Associate)

Great. Thanks, guys.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Christopher Stathoulopoulos with Susquehanna International Group. You may proceed.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos (Senior Investment Analyst)

Morning. Thanks for taking my question. So Barry, just wanted a lot of detail given on capacity or how we should think about it, different data points here. So your selling schedule, as I see it now, is 5% in Q1, 3% in Q2. I guess that's still maturing. You said you don't see a lot of growth in the first half. New markets are lower. If you could better understand the composition here of capacity for the year, right, because not all capacity is created equal, etc., but maybe if you could speak to how you're thinking about frequencies, peak versus off-peak, stage, gauge, and then markets where we would expect to see meaningful growth versus deceleration. Just want to kind of tie up all the points here you've given us on capacity for this year. Thanks.

Barry Biffle (CEO)

Yeah. We've brought back our growth dramatically, and we've said that we will continue to moderate growth until capacity and demand come in balance, and we're solidly back to double-digit margins, and that's going to mean that we continue to focus on peak periods, as Jimmy mentioned earlier, but most importantly, peak days a week, and so we are looking to run maximum utilization on your kind of Thursday, Friday, Sunday, Monday, and do more maintenance and get the fleet back ready on those other days, and so I think that's where you're going to see us concentrate. We're going to fly on the days and periods people want to go, and we're not going to chase utilization. What we've seen looking across the industry, and I think this is globally, the aircraft rent is important, but the variable costs are real.

And you've seen some of your largest variable increases as a percentage term on the airport side, as well as fuel is considerably higher versus, say, 2018, 2019. So you have to be very conscious of kind of that last seat. It may impact your CASM negatively. But as you've seen, we're doing lower utilization, higher CASM, higher margin as a result. And as I always joke, the best way to stop losing money is stop doing things that lose money. And last year, flying on Tuesday, Wednesdays was losing money. And so we're fixing that by reducing the capacity. And we expect to continue to do that. And we remain fluid on kind of the future kind of second half.

We will continue to focus on kind of the. You'll see a lot more of the first half if things don't change, if they were to improve a little bit, if we saw a little bit Tuesday, Wednesday. There's the ability to add some more. But we're not planning on it at this moment.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos (Senior Investment Analyst)

Okay. That's it for me. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Jamie Baker with J.P. Morgan. You may proceed.

Hey, good morning. This is James on for Jamie. Appreciate the fleet comments and the parent remarks. Is there any reason to think that the level of sale-leaseback premiums realized in 2025 will deviate materially from the ones realized in 2024?

Mark Mitchell (CFO)

Yeah. I mean, from a sale-leaseback perspective, so the key change year-over-year is just tied to the number of inductions. So we had 23 in 2024. We'll have 21, as we highlighted, for 2025. And not only the number, so it's down to, but then the mix. It was all 321s in 2024. And you'll have eight of the 21 in 2025 that are 320s. But relative to the premium tied to each of those, there's no issue. But there will be a difference tied to the number and the mix.

Got it. That's helpful. And for our second question, there's been a lot of calls for air traffic control reform in the recent days. And I think you guys have been vocal on that in previous quarters. Have you ever done internal modeling in terms of how much incremental capacity successful ATC reform could generate for you guys, holding pilots and aircraft consistent?

Barry Biffle (CEO)

Yeah. So yes, I've been vocal, and I know, I guess, it was repeated again in some of the things I've said last year here recently. Look, first, our hearts go out to those folks that were impacted. That was a horrible incident, and hopefully, we can stop any of that kind of thing happening in the future, but the truth is that we are understaffed, and there's some pretty long lead times to training someone new. I was excited to hear last night the Secretary of Transportation talking about some things that we've talked about for a while, which is potentially extending the age from 56 to higher. As I understand it, there's a significant amount of trained, capable folks, very seasoned, that I think could be added quickly so you could increase the supply and get us back staffed pretty quickly by increasing the age.

I mean, quite honestly, we allow you to fly as a pilot to 65, but we cap you at 56 for an air traffic controller. Which one of these numbers is wrong? And I would argue that in a kind of an ATC environment, there's likely someone down the chain. If you're worried about a health issue, there's probably someone who could step in a lot quicker than if you're at 36,000 feet. So I think that is a practical approach that's really exciting to me to hear them talking about that. And I'm really excited for them to be focused on safety and getting the numbers there. The second part of your question, though, with regard to modernization, I've seen a lot of different studies on this. We don't necessarily have the capacity ourselves to model this, but I've seen multiple studies.

It ranges somewhere between 18 and 22 minutes I've seen in terms of savings per flight in the United States. That would come from kind of two areas. One is just more efficient flight planning solutions, but also what happens on IROP days, all of the different holds and so forth. That's a significant amount of savings in terms of flying, fuel, and so forth. I think it's two-part. The pre-planned flight part could add incremental utilization and actually save consumers more money because there could be more flights, etc. The second piece is that it would improve the overall experience because you simply would be able to get rid of inefficiencies related to IROP events. I think you'd get a little bit of efficiency, but you would also get better experience for consumers.

Quite honestly, above all, getting back to the original component, which is safety, I think you'd have a much safer system. I'm really excited about them getting the staffing fixed and, secondly, working on the modernization of air traffic control. It's been far too long. I'm glad that this is now finally a focus.

Got it. Thanks for the call, Barry.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Thomas Wadewitz with UBS. You may proceed.

Atul Maheswari (Equity Research Analyst)

Good morning. This is Atul Maheswari on for Tom Wadewitz. Thanks a lot for taking our questions. So just circling back on the new market maturity topic, can you provide some perspective on how much are RASM or profit margins in those immature markets below that of the mature ones? Just any color there that can help us dimensionalize what's possible as those markets mature.

Barry Biffle (CEO)

Yeah. Look, so when you put in new capacity, you're going to take a 30%-35% hit on RASM versus the average in the first year, and so if you just do the math, right, if you had 20% incremental growth versus kind of your baseline from before, 20% times 30%-35%, that's 6%-7% on the system, and so it's just mechanical, the maturity that takes place once you get to year-over-year. That's why when you say where we're at now, you just tend to take Q4 and kind of roll that forward both seasonally as well as just market maturity. You solidly get into the double-digit margins by summer.

Jimmy Dempsey (President)

And just to add to what Barry said, we're pretty aggressive in how we manage the network. You've seen that over the last few years. If we're not seeing a route mature and move beyond like 70% of what the RASM should be on that route and start to creep up to 100% over time, we will cut it. And so part of our immaturity in our business is replacing immature routes that are not performing with new routes in addition to immature activity that comes from aircraft deliveries and growth in the business. And so we are very, very focused on that in here. We watch the performance of the immature markets and are not shy to remove them if they're not performing. We don't hold on to things for very long.

So you can take comfort in the fact that the stuff that we're holding on year-over-year is performing and is heading on a trajectory to get to either a network average or above the network average. And then the stuff that's taken out may not have worked for us for a variety of different reasons. We're not going to hang on to it. And so that's a good component of how we manage the network here. And you saw that actually quite aggressively throughout last year as we redeployed assets. And now you're starting to see that redeployment work and some maturity develop as a result of that.

Atul Maheswari (Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. That's very helpful. And as my follow-up, just for this year, it would seem like there are some cost pressures in the business, either from maybe lower sale-leaseback gains, higher rent, or other cost pressures. But next year, that is 2026, will that be a cleaner cost year? Or does a potential pilot deal mean 2026 is going to be an inflationary year as well?

Mark Mitchell (CFO)

Yeah. So I mean, as we've continued to prove, I mean, we are very focused on cost, remain cost-disciplined. We've grown our cost advantage, and so that will continue to be a focus. As you look at 2025, as we've mentioned, you've got a number of commercial initiatives that are going to drive some movement in the CASM. But any of those decisions are tied to discipline, capacity deployment, driving the maximum margin. And then beyond that, we touched on the fleet impact, but you also have the full-year benefit of the cost savings program we talked about. So there are a number of pieces and parts. But at the end of the day, we're focused on driving the lowest cost number possible. And as you look to 2026 and think about a potential labor deal, what we highlighted is being over 40%. That's inclusive of a deal.

I mean, we're very focused on keeping that above 40% cost advantage.

Michael Linenberg (Research Analyst)

Great. Thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Tom Fitzgerald with TD Cowen. You may proceed.

Tom Fitzgerald (VP)

Hi. Thanks so much for the time. Jimmy, just on your last answer, how many months of data do you need to see before determining if a route is working or if you need to cut it? Is that like a six-month thing, a little bit less, a little bit longer?

Jimmy Dempsey (President)

I mean, typically six to 12 months. But I mean, we also watch how it's performing in the run-in to operating the route. So between announcing it and actually the first departure, we can see the trends that are coming. And obviously, we have a significant history of growth and managing immaturity in our business. But typically, nine, 12 months is the point with which you're very confident that it's maturing in a very strong fashion. But it can happen at any point after you put it on sale where you actually see the actual activity that's happening in the business. And so we have cut routes relatively shortly after launching them because the market isn't there that we thought maybe was there. Or you see a competitive dynamic that crops up that we want to deploy the capacity somewhere else.

An opportunity exists somewhere else, and we move it because of an underperforming immature market. It's very fluid. It's the best way to put it.

Tom Fitzgerald (VP)

Yeah, yeah, yeah. That's very helpful. And then just as a follow-up, would you mind just providing an update on your customer demographics, just given all the changes in the business and all the product changes you're announcing, both within the cabin and on the loyalty side? I'd just love to hear what you're seeing by age cohort and then income cohort. Thanks again for the time.

Bobby Schroeter (CCO)

Yeah. So some of the changes that we've completed over the past year have created benefit in terms of what we're seeing on the demographic side. We've seen an increase actually on the business side in terms of the travelers there. Incomes have gone up. Specifically, I talked earlier about credit card applications and the things that we're seeing as it pertains to the frequent flyer program. Those, in terms of incomes and FICO scores, have gone up fairly dramatically. So the things that we're doing, we're excited about the folks that we're providing premium products to. These are the demographics are moving in the right direction that'll be able to purchase that and engage with that. So overall, good movement we've seen there.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. I would now like to turn the call back over to Barry Biffle for any closing remarks.

Barry Biffle (CEO)

Yes. I want to thank everybody for joining. We're really excited about 2025 and what we have in store. All the hard work that our team has done in 2024 is really paying off. And we're excited about the future. Thanks again for joining. And we'll talk to you next week.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. This concludes the conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.