Vulcan Materials Company - Earnings Call - Q2 2025

Executive Summary

• Q2 2025 delivered revenue of $2.10B, adjusted EBITDA of $659.5M, and adjusted diluted EPS of $2.45; year-over-year growth in margins and unit profitability, but results were below Wall Street consensus on revenue, EPS, and EBITDA. Guidance for FY 2025 adjusted EBITDA ($2.35–$2.55B) was reaffirmed. Consensus values marked with an asterisk; Values retrieved from S&P Global.
• Aggregates cash gross profit per ton rose 9% YoY to $11.88, with segment gross margin expanding to 33.9% despite 1% lower shipments due to significant rainfall in key Southeast markets.
• Capital allocation remained disciplined: Q2 capex $102M; quarterly dividend declared at $0.49 per share; net debt/TTM adjusted EBITDA 2.1x, total debt/TTM adjusted EBITDA 2.2x.
• FY 2025 capex guidance was reduced to approximately $700M (from $750–$800M) given project timing and weather, while management highlighted accelerating highway awards (+22% in Vulcan-served states), improving private non-res signs (data centers), and double-digit July shipments as back-half catalysts.
• Key stock-reaction drivers: reaffirmed EBITDA guide amid weather headwinds, visible public infrastructure tailwinds, and evidence of improving bookings/backlog; near-term narrative centers on volume catch-up and margin durability.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Pricing discipline and cost performance expanded aggregates gross margin to 33.9% and lifted cash gross profit/ton to $11.88; adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 31.4%.
• CEO: “Our second quarter results reflected another quarter of outstanding execution… pricing discipline and excellent cost performance have led to a 13 percent increase in aggregates cash gross profit per ton, a 16 percent improvement in Adjusted EBITDA…”.
• Healthy balance sheet and cash generation: TTM adjusted EBITDA $2.201B; ROIC 15.9%; leverage at 2.1x net debt/TTM adjusted EBITDA.

What Went Wrong

• Weather materially impacted volumes in the Southeast; shipments fell ~1% YoY with estimated 2–3M tons delayed, pressuring reported price mix versus mix-adjusted.
• Q2 missed Street consensus on revenue ($2.10B vs $2.20B*), EPS ($2.45 vs $2.52*), and adjusted EBITDA ($659.5M vs $695.0M*), reflecting volume/mix headwinds in the quarter. Consensus values marked with an asterisk; Values retrieved from S&P Global.
• Downstream softness in ready-mixed concrete tied to weaker private demand; management expects improvement alongside better public infrastructure and lower liquid asphalt costs in H2.

Transcript

Speaker 8

Good morning. Welcome, everyone, to the Vulcan Materials Company second quarter 2025 earnings call. My name is David, and I'll be your conference call coordinator today. Please be reminded that today's call is being recorded, and we will be available for replay later today on the company's website. All lines have been placed in a listen-only mode. After the company's prepared remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. Now, I will turn the call over to your host, Mr. Mark Warren, Vice President of Investor Relations for Vulcan Materials Company. Mr. Warren, you may begin.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Operator. With me today are Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO, and Mary Andrews Carlisle, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Today's call is accompanied by a press release and a supplemental presentation posted to our website, vulcanmaterials.com. Please be reminded that today's discussion may include forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. These risks, along with other legal disclaimers, are described in detail in the company's earnings release and in other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures are defined and reconciled in our earnings release, supplemental presentation, and other SEC filings. During the Q&A, we ask that you limit your participation to one question. This will allow us to accommodate as many as possible during the time we have available. With that, I'll turn the call over to Tom.

Speaker 4

Thank you, Mark, and thank all of you for your interest in Vulcan Materials Company. I'm very proud of how our talented teams are delivering results that exhibit their commitment to continuous improvement through consistent execution of our strategic disciplines. Most importantly, they are doing so while keeping one another safe. Both our safety and financial performance through the first half of the year have been outstanding despite a challenging operating environment. Extreme temperatures early in the year and excessive rainfall in the second quarter have all contributed to lower same-store-to-date shipments across all product lines. Nonetheless, our adjusted EBITDA has improved 16%. Margins have expanded 260 basis points, and aggregate cash gross profit per ton has grown 13%. Our two-pronged growth strategy to improve earnings through compounding profitability in our organic business and adding strategic assets to our portfolio is clearly working.

In the quarter, we generated $660 million of adjusted EBITDA, a 9% improvement over the prior year despite lower aggregate shipments. Rainfall in the Southeast notched 10-year records in many key Vulcan states, namely Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, and the Carolinas, disrupting both our aggregate and asphalt businesses in these markets. Aggregate shipments were impacted by an estimate of 2 to 3 million tons in our most profitable markets. Still, our reported cash gross profit per ton expanded an impressive 9%. Our teams executed particularly well on our Vulcan-web operating disciplines to navigate the challenging operating environment, drive plant efficiencies, and tightly control operating costs. Freight-adjusted unit cash cost of sales increased only 1.5% while remaining lower on a year-to-date basis. Price improvements were geographically widespread, and freight-adjusted average selling prices improved 5%. On a mix-adjusted basis, average selling prices improved 8%.

The difference was the anticipated impact of recent acquisitions and an unfavorable geographic mix due to weather-impacted shipments in our attractive Southeast markets. Consistent pricing discipline, coupled with operating execution, are yielding attractive unit profitability growth as we move into the back half of the year. Let me share a few other thoughts about the second half. Residential construction activity, which accounts for about 20% of our shipments, remains weak with persistent affordability challenges across most of the U.S. Markets. Starts and permits for single-family housing continue to accelerate. However, multifamily starts are showing signs of improvement, with over half of our markets having turned positive on a trending three-month basis. This improvement should begin to help offset the weakness in single-family activity. In private non-residential construction, higher rates for longer and macro uncertainty have been weighing on construction activity. We are beginning to see several signs of recovery.

With growth in data center activity and moderating declines in warehouse and other private non-residential categories, trending three-month starts have turned positive. This is an encouraging sign that private non-residential demand will soon begin to grow. Data centers remain a bright spot. We are currently serving a number of data center projects and actively discussing green-lit projects totaling over $35 billion. We're beginning to hear discussions of supporting power generation projects in areas with a heavy exposure to data centers. Nearly 80% of data center activity in the planning stage is within 30 miles of Vulcan operation. On the public side, trailing 12-month highway contract awards in Vulcan markets have accelerated meaningfully. They were modestly down a year ago and were up over 20% at the end of June. IIJA funding is continuing to benefit both highways and other public infrastructure activity.

We still have over 60% of the dollars yet to be spent. Importantly, the improvements we're beginning to see in both private and public demand environments are translating into accelerating bookings and growing backlogs to support volume growth in the back half of this year and into 2026. Therefore, we continue to expect to deliver between $2.35 billion and $2.55 billion of adjusted EBITDA. Now, I'll turn the call over to Mary Andrews for some additional commentary on our results and the revised outlook. Mary Andrews?

Speaker 2

Thanks, Tom, and good morning. Over the last six months, our year-over-year, trailing 12 months' aggregate freight-adjusted unit cash cost of sales has improved nearly 600 basis points, from 10% to 4%. The focus of our operating teams on utilizing our process intelligence system and other Vulcan-web operating tools to drive plant efficiencies is contributing to the attractive expansion in our aggregate cash gross profit per ton, even in a lower volume environment. The solid operating performance through the first six months of this year drove a 58% improvement in operating cash flow, and free cash flow on a trailing 12-month basis surpassed $1 billion. This attractive cash generation, coupled with our consistent, disciplined capital allocation, will enable us to continue to drive long-term value creation for shareholders.

Through the first six months, we reinvested $207 million in maintenance and growth capital expenditures, returned $169 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, and retired $400 million of debt. Our return on invested capital at June 30 was 15.9%. At quarter-end, we reclassified $550 million of commercial paper borrowing from long-term to short-term debt, reflecting the likelihood that we will use some of the discretionary cash generation in the second half to repay those balances. Doing so will reduce our interest expense while maintaining the flexibility to reissue at any time to opportunistically capitalize on growth opportunities. At June 30, net debt to trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA leverage was 2.1 times.

Given the cold and wet start to the year that slowed spending timelines on some projects, we now expect full-year maintenance and growth capital expenditures of approximately $700 million, with an acceleration of spending in the second half of the year. Our trailing 12-month SG&A expenses of $550 million were flat to the prior year and 10 basis points lower as a percentage of revenue. Year-to-date expenses of $283 million were in line with our expectations. As Tom said, we are reaffirming our full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance of $2.35 to $2.55 billion. Double-digit year-over-year shipments thus far in July, the exceptional execution of our teams in the first half of the year, and the improving private and public demand backdrop all give us confidence in an accelerating second half of the year. I'll now turn the call back over to Tom to provide a few closing remarks.

Speaker 4

Thank you, Mary Andrews Carlisle, and thank you to my Vulcan teammates who delivered a strong first half of 2025. Our trailing 12-month aggregate cash gross profit of $11.25 per ton is now over 50% higher than just three years ago when we communicated a goal of $11.12 per ton. This clearly depicts the durability of our aggregate-led business and our commitment to controlling what we can control to deliver consistent earnings growth for our shareholders, regardless of the demand backdrop. Mary Andrews Carlisle and I will be happy to take your questions.

Speaker 8

At this time, if you'd like to ask a question, please press the star and one keys on your telephone keypad. Keep in mind you may remove yourself from the question queue at any time by pressing star and two. Again, in the interest of time, we ask that you limit yourself to one question. If you have any follow-up questions, you may re-enter the queue. As a reminder, it is star and one to ask a question. We'll take our first question from Trey Grooms with Stephens Inc. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 5

Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. You all faced a heavily weather-impacted first half of the year, which clearly impacted your volume and I'm sure had to hurt profitability as well to some degree. What are you seeing or what gives you the confidence going into the second half to reaffirm your EBITDA guide for the year despite this kind of tough first half that we've been having to deal with, especially due to weather?

Speaker 4

Thanks for the question, Trey. I think, Trey, ex-rain, I was very pleased with the quarter and the first half of the year. You know, volumes were down 1% in Q2 and in the first half, without acquisitions, down 5%. As we've been talking about, of course, saw significant rainfall in the Southeast. With our outsized performance in the Southeast, we were probably impacted more than most. That's the tough news. For me, the good news is that even with the wet weather in Q2, the cold weather in Q1, volumes down, and the most impacted region being that Southeast, which houses probably, you know, our highest prices and margins, we still saw first-half prices up 6% and unit margins up 13%. For me, that's really quality earnings in some tough conditions and one I think our people should be very proud of, of their performance in the first half.

It gives us a lot of confidence for the second half because, you know, a bit of good weather in the Southeast, like we saw in July, will really help improve what I thought was already a really good performance. When it's dry, we're shipping strong. July had what I call normal weather patterns, and we saw very strong shipments. They were, as Mary Andrews Carlisle said, they were up double-digit in July, and that's a little bit of catch-up probably and probably some easy comps. Importantly, what we know is that our backlogs and our booking pace and our shipping pace are all up and would support, you know, our full-year guidance of that 3% to 5%, which will have significant catch-up in the second half. We always said this will be second-half loaded from a volume perspective.

I think the other thing that gives me confidence in it is that the underlying demand is there and it is improving. I think that we're starting to be on the edge of a turn for the private side.

Speaker 8

Perfect. Okay, thanks, Tom. That's encouraging. I'll keep it to one question and pass it on. Thank you very much.

Speaker 4

Thanks, Trey. Talk to you later.

Speaker 8

See you. We'll take our next question from Anthony Pettinari with Citigroup Global Markets. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 0

Hi, Anthony.

Hi, good morning.

Hey, last quarter, I think you mentioned maybe delays in bids translating to bookings as something that maybe you were seeing a little bit more, and maybe we've seen some of that in national data. I'm just curious if that's accurate. Are you seeing project timelines stretch out? You know, customer confidence improved? I'm just kind of curious how that bid, the booking timeline has trended.

Speaker 4

Yeah, good question and an important one because it's turned. We are seeing them, they are seeing them get green-lit. They're going. That's what's also building our booking pace and our backlogs. I think we've seen the turn in that.

Speaker 0

Okay. Is that specific to private commercial or public, or are you seeing it across end markets?

Speaker 4

I think you're seeing it across all end markets. The one I would call out that we're not seeing it across would be single-family. As we talked about, the backlogs and booking pace and starts on the public side is very strong, and it continues to improve on the private side in all sectors except for single-family.

Speaker 0

Okay, that's very helpful. I'll turn it over.

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Speaker 8

We'll take our next question from Kathryn Thompson with Thompson Research Group. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hi, Katherine.

Speaker 3

Good morning, and thank you for taking my question this morning. Just tagging on the infrastructure question, you talked about the acceleration of dollars flowing out. How much of this, when you look, there are certain key states like Florida with the Moving Florida Forward initiative, which is $4 billion, and then Tennessee’s Modernization Act, which added another $3.3 billion to DOT funding. Is it these types of states that have these big initiatives and you're starting to see dollars flow through, or is it other types of projects that are more related to IIJA and just seeing a more delay from those? Or is it a combination of all the above?

Speaker 4

Yeah, it's all of the above. You know, the capital spending, as you pointed out, in all of our Southeastern states, in fact, all of our biggest states are up and up considerably. That is coupled with IIJA funding. I think you're seeing both of them come together along with some local funding that's been increasing over the last three or four years. I think what we're seeing in the highway work is demand is very strong and getting better. We're seeing this in lettings, bookings, and backlogs. You know, remember a year ago, the contract awards were down 2%. Now contract awards are up 22%. We're also seeing this in our shipments. I mean, we saw it in July. We really feel the impact in 2026. This kind of growth in public demand should be a strong catalyst for 2026 pricing because it's so visible.

That gives you that visibility of future work, which really helps pricing.

Speaker 3

Okay. Lisa said that contract awards are up 22%. Is that for Vulcan-served states, or is that more a national?

Speaker 4

That is Vulcan-served. Yeah, that is highway for Vulcan-served states.

Speaker 2

You know, and Kathryn, I think one of the things we're pleased to see is that that shift from, as Tom commented, down a year ago to significantly up is distinctly different in Vulcan states versus other states where the awards have actually decelerated some.

Speaker 3

Okay, great. Thank you so much. I appreciate it.

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Speaker 3

Best of luck.

Speaker 4

Thanks.

Speaker 8

We'll take our next question from Brian Brophy with Stifel. Please go ahead.

Hello, this is Andrew Maser from Brian. Thank you for taking my question. I just had a question on CapEx. It looks like it took a step down in the quarter. I'm wondering if there's any particular drivers of that, and then are there any changes to how you're thinking about CapEx for the full year?

Speaker 2

Yeah, so the CapEx in the first half, you know, being lighter than what we anticipate for the full year, was really due to the slow start with the weather. It was just harder to get project timelines going. We do expect now that CapEx for the full year will be about $700 million, which is a bit lower than our original guide of $750 to $800 million.

Thank you.

Speaker 8

We'll take our next question from Steven Fisher with UBS. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hi, Steve.

Hi. Thanks for taking the question. Obviously, good cost performance in the quarter, and I'm just curious what your visibility is to the increases in the second half of the year and maybe what you experienced in July with the real kind of question around, do you think you'll be able to be back growing cash gross profit per ton by double digits in Q3?

Yeah, so I've got a little bit of cost. We would call it trending towards or guided towards the low end of our guidance. You know, the cost in the first half was down 1%, up 1% in Q2. I thought that was a really excellent operating performance. That's really hard to do when you have that kind of rain. Great performance by my operators. Their safety record was also record-setting. So, you know, thanks and congratulations to all of them. What they're really doing is, to your point, is helping us take that price to the bottom line. To that point, our gross margins for aggregates was up 200 basis points, and it was up to 42.7% in Q2.

Again, in spite of rain-reduced volumes in the Southeast and extremely wet quarter, I thought our folks should be very proud of not only the cost performance, but the unit margin performance. What it's telling me is that the Vulcan way of operating is making a difference. We got a long ways to go on that, but we should see that improving. Also, to your point, we're just able to take all the price to the bottom line.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I mean, if you look at the quarter, you know, with our price being up over $1 per ton, $1.11, and being able to take $0.95 of that to the bottom line and cash gross profit per ton was just a great performance. We think that we'll carry that momentum into the back half.

Speaker 4

Yeah, remember, this is in reduced volumes. The volume leverage that we're, as the volumes go up, will really help us with that and really help push those unit margins up.

Terrific. Thank you.

Thank you.

Speaker 8

We'll take our next question from Keith Hughes with Truist Securities. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Thank you.

Speaker 4

Thanks for taking the questions. I guess on the non-residential comments, some of the more bullish that I've heard. What do you think that would turn into volumes for you? Is that a 2026 story or what's the view? You know, we'll feel a little bit of it in the second half. I think it is probably more of a 2026 volume just because you got a delay in those projects. I mean, I think we're starting to see that. We are definitely seeing our backlogs, and we're starting to see a little bit of it in shipments, but I think it's more of a 2026 play, 2027 play. You know, we've been anticipating a recovery in non-res. Now I think we're starting to see signs of the turn. The data centers are accelerating quickly.

We're seeing some green shoots in warehouses, and we're seeing some green shoots in traditional light non-res, which we think is at the bottom. Our backlogs in non-res are up and support that. Are encouraging comments. I think we're encouraged about it. Let's hope that momentum continues, but it sure appears it is going to.

The final question in the guide, what are you thinking about second half for aggregate pricing?

I think that we keep on with the momentum. I think we'll be impacted some because the highway sector is so strong right now, which has a larger portion of base, which is a cheaper product, but it's also a cheaper product to make. I would point you to, I feel good about the unit margins, and I feel good about the momentum in pricing, but that sequential will be a little bit less than prior year because of product mix because of the heavy highway sector.

Okay, thank you.

Yeah, one of the things I would tell you, I add to that was I thought when it came to pricing, we were really strong in the acquisitions, both on the East Coast and the West Coast. We got all we had planned in January, and I think we got all we were planned in mid-year, which will help us because, as you can see, the mix has been a drag on us.

Yeah, right. Okay, thanks very much.

Thanks.

Speaker 8

We'll take our next question from Ivan Yee with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Yes, hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. First, roughly what % of your aggregates move on the rails? I guess I just want to get your initial thoughts on the proposed Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern merger. What impact would this have? Would you support or oppose the transaction? Thank you.

Speaker 4

I don't know that it has any impact on us. We're customers of both those railroads, but the way aggregate shipments move, you're not going to commingle those. I don't see much of an impact for us. In other words, what we ship now, we're not a long hauler, so we're shipping to a market, which is within each one of those railroads, not changing carriers.

Speaker 9

Great. Thank you.

Speaker 4

Sure.

Speaker 8

We'll take our next question from Angel Castillo with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 4

Hi, Angel.

Hi, good morning.

Speaker 9

Good morning.

Hi, how's it going? Thank you for taking my question. This is a bit of a multi-part one, but just wanted to get a better sense of, you mentioned the bid-to-bookings conversions starting to improve here, and it sounds like, you know, some of that is just, again, an inflection point. Curious, what are you seeing change here? Is it just market confidence? Is it the tax bill? As you kind of respond to that, I guess, just curious, it sounds like you're also still seeing some deferrals and delays. Are those also still at maybe a little bit elevated levels, or are you seeing inflection there where those are no longer kind of occurring?

Speaker 4

I missed the second half of your question. I'm sorry.

Yeah, just curious, as we think about that change in the bid-to-kind-of-bookings, it sounds like you are still seeing some deferrals and delays of projects that maybe make the volume inflection more of a 2026 story. Just curious, is that also improving in terms of the number of kind of deferrals or delays? As we think about the speed at which we can see these awards start to turn to real volumes.

I don't think we're seeing the, I think the deferrals and delays have come to pass. We're seeing those jobs start. I think while that will build for 2026, just because our backlogs are building, we're going to feel that in the second half. Now, where is that? As I said, pretty broad spread. The highway and infrastructure work is very good. All that money, the IIJA and state funding and local funding, is going to work. We will definitely feel that in the second half of 2025 and into 2026. Data centers are good and growing. We're shipping a number of them right now and, as I said, there's $35 billion of greenlit projects that haven't, you know, they're going to go, but we're not feeling them at this point. Those are heavily in our markets on, as I said, on non-res. Warehouses, we think, are turning.

That'll help us. Like-res, we think, is bottom. That'll help us. Interestingly, we haven't talked about, but on multifamily residential, we've gone into growth mode in 2023, month starts. I think we're up 17%. The only one we're struggling with right now is single-family, not overbuilt. At some point in time, it'll turn, but we haven't seen signs of that at this point.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I think, Angel, overall, there was just a bit of a post-Liberation Day lull that we seem to really be past now. Trailing three-month contract awards in private non-res, you know, have turned positive. That, to us, is encouraging that we've moved past some of that uncertainty.

That's very helpful. Thank you.

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Speaker 8

We'll take our next question from Phil Ng with Jefferies. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Hey, guys. Tom, you sounded pretty bullish on the pace of the infrastructure side of things. I think coming into the year, there was probably an expectation for infrastructure to call it beyond mid-single digits. Now, given what you're seeing, is that still a good way to think about it? Does that rate of growth perhaps even accelerate more in 2026 and beyond?

Speaker 4

I would tell you what, as I said, what we're seeing is just that money going to work. The DOT's ability to get more work out, I think, is maturing. I do think that. As I said, we see the upswing in 2025. I think we see it grow even more into 2026. It wouldn't surprise me to see it grow more into 2027.

Okay. That's helpful. In your downstream business, I appreciate it's a smaller part of your business. It was a little softer than I would have thought. How much of that is weather-related, dynamic, and ready mix, I would imagine, is more tied to housing perspective. Has your outlook in terms of your profitability in your downstream business changed from the start of the year?

Speaker 2

Phil, you're right. The first half was impacted really by the weather in our asphalt business in Tennessee and Alabama. The softer private demand did weigh on ready-mixed concrete. Overall, in asphalt, we still saw price improvement, and the lower liquid helped offset the lower volumes in the quarter. I think a pretty solid performance there. The good news is we've seen a good recovery already in July shipments where we were weather impacted. I think the accelerating public infrastructure demand and a little bit lower liquid level versus what we'd initially anticipated all bode well for the back half in asphalt. In ready-mixed concrete, we certainly have some ground to make up. We saw price improvement and unit margin improvement, even with the lower volumes. Some of that is in part due to the quality of that recent Southern California acquisition.

We're encouraged in ready-mixed concrete by some of the positive signs on the private side that Tom was just talking about, and still think we have a shot at some improvement in the back half.

Okay. Helpful color. Thank you.

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Speaker 8

We'll take our next question from Garik Shmois with Loop Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Great. Thanks. I had a question on aggregates pricing. How should we think about mid-year increases this year? Tom just spoke a little bit to traction on acquired markets. I'm just wondering how widespread the mid-years were. Also, on the mix side, I appreciate the product mix headwinds with more base. I'm wondering about geographic mix, especially with the Southeast snaps back here as it has in July. How does that impact pricing in the second half of the year?

Speaker 4

Yeah. On mid-years, I'd call it some products in some markets, which is not that unusual. Everybody wants it to have an impact on the same year. As we'll say, it will have a little bit of impact on 2025, but it's really a 2026 play. It's really trying to set you up for your 2026 price increases. It's more tailwind for 2026. As I said, I was very pleased with the pricing we got in both North Carolina and in California on the acquisitions. They're behind, and we'll quickly get them up to the open standards, but that's going to take a little while. As you saw in the mix, that was a big part of the difference in reported and mix. The other part, to your point, was the Southeast, where our volumes were hit hard with record rainfall in a number of our key states.

I think that the fact that we performed as well as we did in the first half based on mix and based on challenging conditions gives me a lot of confidence with the second half, where I think we'll see better volumes and that we can continue that momentum and we carry a lot of that into 2026. I think while we've had a challenge from outside forces, I thought our internal performance was quite disciplined and done quite well.

Speaker 2

Yeah. Garik, I think we will see some modest sequential growth, but it really will just come down to geographic mix and product mix and where those land. You know, what's important to us mostly is just the underlying pricing momentum with the 8% mix adjusted in the quarter and how strong that remains.

Speaker 4

Yeah. The one thing you brought up, base, that I would point out, while, you know, people tend to, I guess, kind of look down on base, it is a really important product for us. It has great margins, and it balances our plants, and, you know, will help our costs. While flexible base is lower priced, it's still really good margins and really important. I'm, you know, for me, as an operator, I think the base volumes look fantastic.

That's encouraging. Thank you.

Thank you.

Speaker 8

We'll take our next question from Michael Dudas with Vertical Research Partners. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 7

Mary Andrews Carlisle. Mark Warren, Tom Hill.

Speaker 4

Hey.

Speaker 2

Good morning.

Speaker 7

Tom, I'm going to share your thoughts on big, beautiful bill legislation and how that may be from your clients or how you assess it from a Vulcan standpoint. Maybe to follow on to that, what are you hearing your thoughts on IIJA 2.0?

Speaker 2

I'll start first maybe with the recent tax legislation. There are certainly some benefits in there for us. Those will mainly come from 100% bonus depreciation and the expensing of domestic research costs. We currently estimate a cash tax benefit of over $40 million for June year-to-date activity, and we would expect the full year benefit could approach $100 million. We don't expect any material impacts to our effective tax rate, but definitely a cash tax benefit for 2025 and going forward.

Speaker 4

Yeah. On a new highway bill, I think the good news, what I'm encouraged about, is that Congress is already working on one. They're already trying to pin it. They are aggressively pursuing it. I think, you know, to tell you what the magnitude is for IIJA, it's probably too early to call. It will be bigger. Now, whether that's 5% or 20%, I don't, we don't know yet. We're voting for 20%, but I'd take 5%. I think importantly, remembering IIJA funding is a comment, we've only spent 60% of that funding. You know, we're a year and a half away from the bill expiring. There will be a tail to this, and we'll have substantial highway work based on IIJA dollars that will go past the expiration of IIJA.

We got kind of what I call an insurance policy or a timeline that will protect us on trying to get that new bill. We'll get one, and it'll be at higher funding.

Speaker 7

Let's settle for 12.5%, Tom. We'll call it a day. Thank you.

Speaker 4

Okay.

Speaker 8

We'll take our next question from David MacGregor with Longbow Research. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Yeah. Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking the questions. Tom, you talked about 2 to 3 million tons that were lost in the quarter. How much incremental tons do you think you'll ship in 3Q that was of that 2 to 3 million? How much can you recover? I guess also on that question, I appreciate all the conversation and discussion around the backlogs. I know normally you don't open that up and get into a lot of detail, but given we seem to be at a fairly important inflection point in terms of what you're seeing there, I wonder if you could maybe just dig in a little further on the backlog and share with us a little more detail. Maybe, you know, growth numbers year over year versus last quarter, anything you can say about pricing growth in the backlog. I think anything there would be helpful.

Thanks.

Speaker 4

Yeah. On the weather-related, it will be spread out in the second half. You just don't get a big slug of that. We probably saw the slug we saw in July. That probably helped that double-digit number, but most of it will be spread out over the quarter. I think we catch that up and do fine with it and move ahead. If I look at our backlogs, I would call them up in all sectors except for single-family. They're kind of what I call flat, maybe down a little bit in single-family. The one that's non-res is up and highways is up substantially. I think that gives us a lot of confidence in continuing our guide to the 3 or 5, but also gives us confidence that we're going to start 2026 off on the right foot.

Thanks very much.

Thank you.

Speaker 8

We will take our last question today from Michael Feniger with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hey, Michael.

Speaker 2

Morning.

Morning, guys. Thanks for squeezing me in. Tom, you mentioned with the second half, the product mix with the highways kind of weighs on the sequential pricing. It sounds like a mixed impact. Is there anything we should keep in mind for 2026 if growth is led more by highways and data centers? Does that headline pricing number look a little bit more modest, but the price versus cost spread is still the same in terms of, you know, 60% incrementals, kind of double-digit gross profit per ton? Just kind of wondering, as the mix and your end markets kind of evolve, do we have to think about differently if it impacts the pricing or the profitability metrics at all?

Speaker 4

Over the last couple of years, we've got a lot of headwinds on the private side, and we've been slow getting growth on the highways about where we thought. What's encouraging me about pricing '26 is two things. Number one, the highways are so strong, and you've got a lot of visibility to come and work in highways. It's not just what we have in our backlogs, but what's the funding and the capital spending levels for our states. Couple that with the IIJA funding maturing and the DOTs being able to get that work out. All those are really impactors. Remember, highway work, once they say it's going to go, it's going to go. It's not going to get paused. It's not going to get pushed back unless you have a permitting issue. It's a lot of clarity to what's going on with that.

If you layer on top of that, if we're making the turn on the private side, then that gives us a lot of tailwinds for people to have a confidence in more work to come and taking risk on pricing going forward. That's what's given me a better feeling than maybe what I had three or four, six months ago when we were at a little bit of a lull on the private side and the public side did not kick in as strong.

Great. Thanks, Tom. Just lastly, from a second question. You guys are looking, we're looking like $1 billion of free cash flow. Is that the new baseline for you guys going forward, rebasing the free cash flow to this $1 billion number and moving that higher? If that is the case, this is your new baseline, which would be a record for the company. Does that change at all how you're thinking of capital allocation? I appreciate that I think you're at, you know, two times leverage. I'm just kind of curious, that new baseline, does that kind of change or how aggressive you'll be on the capital allocation side? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yeah. I would tell you, you know, our capital allocation priorities don't change. I think the level to which we can allocate capital to each of those priorities does change. Even as you think about the back half of the year, given the current balance sheet profile and the strong cash generation, I think returning cash to shareholders is likely. That level will be dependent upon how the M&A discussions that we've been having continue to develop.

Speaker 4

Yeah. I thought we were, you know, we were very pleased with the two acquisitions we got. We closed on at the end of 2025. We're pleased with our integration, particularly on the pricing side. You know, M&A was a bit slow in the first months of the year. We're starting to have some conversations now that hopefully will be meaningful to us. I'm encouraged. I'm more encouraged about the M&A than maybe I was four or five months ago. Also, like I said, once you buy one, you better execute. I'm pleased with the execution of what we've done with who we closed with in the last year.

Thank you.

Thank you.

Speaker 8

There are no further questions on the line at this time. We'll turn the program back to Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO, for any closing or remaining remarks.

Speaker 4

Again, thank you for your interest in Vulcan Materials Company. We appreciate your time. We look forward to talking to you throughout the quarter, and we hope you stay safe and your family stays safe. Thank you.

Speaker 8

This does conclude today's program. Thank you again for your participation, and you may now disconnect.