Q3 2024 Earnings Summary
- Significant Growth Expected from New Customers in 2025: Westrock has onboarded numerous new customers who will begin commercial volume purchases in early 2025. Notably, half of their top 25 customers are brand new and did no business with them in 2024. This influx of new business is expected to more than double the EBITDA of their existing business , indicating strong future revenue and earnings growth.
- Ready-to-Drink (RTD) Can Lines Sold Out, Ensuring High Capacity Utilization: The first RTD can line is sold out, and the second can line is largely sold out as well, beginning production in the second half of 2025. This high demand is expected to result in a steep ramp-up in sales volume throughout the year, contributing significantly to the company's earnings.
- Potential Significant Increase in Single-Serve Cup Volumes: Westrock anticipates a 60% to 80% increase in single-serve cup volumes next year due to winning more distribution centers from current customers and gaining new customers. This rebound is expected to enhance the earnings power of their single-serve platform in 2025.
- Declining volumes in the Single-Serve Cups segment due to changes in consumer behavior, with volumes down 10-12% as consumers are shopping down in packaging size, which could negatively impact revenue growth.
- Delays in ramping up production at the Conway extract and RTD facility, including pushing back major customer production from 2024 to 2025, may postpone expected revenue and EBITDA growth.
- Reliance on securing new customer volume commitments and successful product acceptance processes introduces uncertainty in meeting future growth projections if anticipated business does not materialize as planned.
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EBITDA Growth Drivers
Q: Clarify EBITDA growth drivers; what's secured for next year?
A: Management highlighted that they've onboarded new roast and ground retail customers in the latter part of this year, positively impacting the P&L and expecting a full-year benefit next year. They also have new volume from existing single-serve customers starting early next year and anticipate a new contract win that will increase volume. They expect a return to normal single-serve cup volumes, which had been soft but are improving in the fourth quarter. -
Single-Serve Volume Rebound
Q: Is single-serve volume returning to growth or just plateauing?
A: The single-serve cup volumes are starting to firm up. Management is looking at being up 60% to 80% in cup volumes next year if all goes as planned. They're on the verge of a significant scale-up in the single-serve platform as more customers come on board. -
EBITDA Doubling and Earnings Power
Q: How does Conway double EBITDA; is the $150–$180 million earnings power achievable?
A: If all customers started on January 1 and operated throughout the year, EBITDA guidance would be higher than the current $80–$100 million. Due to staggered starts and ramp-ups, including a glass line coming online in the third quarter, they arrive at the $80–$100 million guidance. If everything were fully operational from the start, EBITDA would be closer to $150 million. -
2025 Exit Run Rate
Q: Can you provide color on the 2025 exit run rate?
A: Management expects the exit run rate to be around $125–$150 million, possibly on the higher end. Notably, 12 of their top 25 customers for next year are entirely new, starting in 2025, which is a significant shift for the business. -
Single-Serve Volume Declines
Q: Why are single-serve volumes down 20%?
A: The decline is due to consumers buying smaller pack sizes and stretching out purchases, leading to a 10–12% drop in cup volumes. Additionally, they lost some distribution centers at the beginning of the year, contributing to the volume drop. However, they've recently won new distribution centers that will come online early next year. -
Impact of RTD Market Slowdown
Q: How does the RTD coffee slowdown affect your outlook?
A: Regardless of the market growing or shrinking by 8%, the key is gaining share. They've been taking share, enough to double, triple, or quadruple earnings in the coming years. In single-serve, while the market may grow 2%, they expect to grow 60% next year through share gains. -
Revenue Ramp Guarantees
Q: What ensures the revenue ramp in 2025 amid potential client delays?
A: The prior client pushout was rare and related to contract timing. In the Conway ready-to-drink and extract business, contracts include take-or-pay terms or increased pricing for lower volumes, providing more certainty. They've coordinated with customers to start in 2025, allowing for immediate absorption and full capacity run rates from the first quarter. -
Commercialization Timeline
Q: Will production start straight into commercialization in 2025?
A: New products require acceptance processes, and the company will integrate these as needed. However, their projections reflect commercial production of products already approved in 2024. -
Can Line Utilization
Q: Does delaying production for a large customer affect others or the can line?
A: The delay doesn't impact other customers. They're completing commercialization so that in 2025, they can ramp up sales volume steeply on the can line. The first can line is sold out, and as it ramps in the first half, the second can line will start in the second half to handle increasing volumes.
Research analysts covering Westrock Coffee.