Q3 2024 Earnings Summary
- WEX has successfully implemented pricing increases in its Mobility segment, resulting in a significant revenue impact of $40 million to $50 million this year. These pricing initiatives are expected to contribute an additional $10 million to $20 million next year as the effects are annualized, and the company continues to explore further pricing opportunities.
- The interchange rate in the Mobility segment has increased due to sustainable pricing adjustments. This improvement is expected to be maintained going forward, potentially enhancing revenue and profitability.
- WEX has aggressively repurchased shares, reducing outstanding shares by 12% since Q1 2022, with the share count now at its lowest level in a decade. The Board has recently increased the share repurchase authorization by $1 billion, reflecting confidence in WEX's long-term intrinsic value and making share repurchases an attractive use of capital.
- WEX experienced an unexpected decline in same-store sales volume in its Mobility segment starting in August, which continued into September and has not further deteriorated in October, indicating potential ongoing softness that may impact future revenues. ,
- The Mobility segment had an unplanned $10 million charge related to finance fee revenue due to operational issues identified while optimizing pricing structures, suggesting weaknesses in operational controls and potential for future unexpected charges. , ,
- Lower fuel prices have had a significant negative impact on WEX's earnings, reducing EPS by approximately $0.23, and the company remains sensitive to fuel price fluctuations, which could continue to pressure margins if fuel prices stay low. ,
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Mobility Segment Softness
Q: Is the decline in Mobility a sign of broader macro weakness?
A: Melissa Smith noted that the Mobility segment experienced a decline in same-store sales across 7 of 8 top industry groups, with decreases of 3% to 5% year-over-year. This softness began in August, accelerated in September, and leveled off in October. Customers cited reduced needs, possibly due to uncertainty around elections and interest rates. While it's too early to call it a macro indicator, they are assuming the same level of activity in Q4. -
Corporate Payments Impact from Large OTA Transition
Q: How is the large OTA customer transition affecting Corporate Payments?
A: The large online travel agency is continuing to transition volume to a new model, which is expected to grow further in Q4 and reach new levels next year, resulting in about a 1% impact to 2025 revenue. This migration significantly impacts the segment over the next 3 to 4 quarters. Excluding this impact, Corporate Payments grew 6%. WEX expects the travel business to normalize and is focused on growing outside of travel. -
Fuel Price Impact on EPS
Q: What is the effect of lower fuel prices on earnings?
A: Fuel prices have been a macro headwind, with a $0.30 average fuel price decline in Q4 versus previous assumptions. The EPS impact of this decline is about $0.23, in line with prior guidance that a $0.10 decrease in fuel prices leads to a $0.20 impact on EPS. -
Credit Losses Outlook
Q: Are credit losses expected to increase in Q4?
A: Credit losses came in better than expected in Q3, but guidance implies a material step-up in Q4. Jagtar Narula explained that while they had strong performance in charge-offs this quarter, they are now factoring in higher receivable balances and do not expect to repeat the reserve benefits seen in Q3. There are no specific items driving this increase. -
Share Buybacks
Q: Any changes to share buyback plans given stock levels?
A: Melissa Smith stated that share repurchases are an attractive use of capital, with outstanding shares down 12% from Q1 2022, reaching the lowest point in a decade. The Board increased the authorization, reflecting confidence in WEX's long-term intrinsic value. -
Benefits Segment Revenue Delays
Q: How are delays affecting the Benefits segment revenue?
A: Some contracts in the Benefits segment were deferred in terms of implementation timing, delaying expected revenue. The delayed revenue will flow into Q1 next year. Despite this, bookings have been higher year-over-year, and they expect to beat the market HSA growth rate of 5% projected by Devenir. -
Mobility Pricing Impact and Sustainability
Q: Is the high interchange rate in Mobility sustainable?
A: The high interchange rate was driven by fuel prices and pricing increases. Pricing increases are sustainable, contributing approximately $40 million to $50 million this year, with $10 million to $20 million expected to roll forward into next year. Fuel prices may vary, but if they remain stable, rates should stay comparable. -
Outlook for Corporate Payments Growth Rate
Q: Should long-term growth expectations for Corporate Payments change?
A: Melissa Smith reaffirmed that they view Corporate Payments as a 10% to 15% long-term grower. The travel customer base grew 7% in the quarter, but there was some softness outside of travel. They are focused on growing outside of travel at a higher rate to meet growth targets. -
Same-Store Sales Softness Assumptions
Q: Are you assuming further weakness in same-store sales?
A: Jagtar Narula stated that they are taking the levels observed in September and assuming stability for the fourth quarter, not projecting further weakness or acceleration. -
No Major OTA Renewals Expected
Q: Any concerns about other OTA renewals impacting revenue?
A: Melissa Smith indicated that while they have customers renewing all the time, there are no major renewals that are a concern at this point. They continue to focus on working with existing customers and exploring new areas of spend within those customers.
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