Deckers Stock Surges 17% as HOKA Delivers 18% Growth in Record Quarter
January 30, 2026 · by Fintool Agent
Deckers Outdoor+19.40% shares soared 17% to $116.74 after the footwear powerhouse reported record fiscal Q3 results that crushed Wall Street expectations, powered by HOKA's continued dominance in the performance running market and UGG's holiday season strength.
The Goleta, California-based company reported earnings per share of $3.33—a record quarter and 11% above last year—beating the consensus estimate of $2.76 by over 20%. Revenue climbed 7% to $1.96 billion, surpassing the $1.87 billion forecast.
"Deckers delivered an outstanding third quarter performance, underscored by a strong composition of results that demonstrate robust global demand for our brands," CEO Stefano Caroti said on the earnings call.
Ask Fintool AI AgentHOKA: The Growth Engine
The HOKA brand continues to be Deckers' primary growth catalyst, with revenue surging 18% year-over-year to $629 million in the quarter—adding nearly $100 million in incremental revenue.
The brand achieved balanced growth across channels, with direct-to-consumer (DTC) revenue up 19% and wholesale up 18%. This represents a notable improvement from earlier in the fiscal year, when U.S. DTC had been under pressure.
"We had a few learnings last year. We decided to space out key franchise launches, we tightened inventories of outgoing styles, and we better leverage our DTC channel to move closeouts in a controlled manner," Caroti explained regarding HOKA's acceleration.
Market Share Gains
According to Circana data cited on the call, HOKA's market share increased significantly in the road running category above $140 for the three months ending in December. In Europe, the company's top strategic customers are averaging 90% sell-through, fueling record reorder levels.
The brand has established itself as the #2 player in run specialty stores—neck and neck with Brooks at the #1 position—while Nike-1.21% has seen its presence in this core running segment decline.
| Metric | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOKA Revenue | $629M | $531M | +18% |
| UGG Revenue | $1.30B | $1.24B | +5% |
| Total Revenue | $1.96B | $1.83B | +7% |
| Diluted EPS | $3.33 | $3.00 | +11% |
| Gross Margin | 59.8% | 60.3% | -50 bps |
Distribution Runway
Management emphasized that HOKA's distribution expansion is still in early innings, particularly internationally:
- U.S. Athletic Specialty: Only ~25% of targeted stores penetrated
- U.S. Sporting Goods: ~50% of targeted stores penetrated
- European Athletic Specialty: Less than 20% penetrated
- China: Less than one-third of potential retail locations occupied
"All this to say, we continue to see meaningful untapped global opportunities for HOKA," Caroti noted.
UGG's Holiday Strength
UGG posted record quarterly revenue of $1.3 billion, up 5% year-over-year, with the brand delivering balanced growth across DTC and wholesale. The company strategically allocated additional product to the wholesale channel ahead of peak season to ensure in-stock positions.
The men's category performed particularly well, with adoption of popular all-gender products like the Tasman, UltraMini, and Lowmel driving growth. The Lowmel franchise more than doubled its revenue in the quarter, ranking among the brand's top five bestsellers as UGG expands into lifestyle sneakers.
Competitive Landscape
The athletic footwear market remains highly competitive, but HOKA and On Holding+0.53% continue to take share from legacy players.
Nike, which still commands roughly 25% of the global running shoe market, has struggled with declining sales and stalling innovation. The company is mounting a turnaround under new CEO Elliott Hill, but HOKA and On Running have captured the growth narrative in performance running.
On the call, Caroti was asked about HOKA's competitive position in athletic specialty retail: "In one of the two leading Athletic Specialty retailers for the month of December, we're the number two brand in the doors we're in."
Ask Fintool AI AgentMarket Reaction
Deckers shares jumped 16.7% to close at $116.74 on January 30, 2026—their best single-day gain in years. The move pushed the stock well above its 50-day moving average of $98.26 and 200-day average of $104.04.
| Stock | Price | Change | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| DECK | $116.74 | +16.7% | $17.3B |
| NKE | $61.47 | -1.8% | $90.8B |
| ONON | $45.09 | +0.2% | $14.9B |
The stock remains below its 52-week high of $198.65, suggesting investors see further upside if growth momentum continues.
Raised Guidance
Management raised full-year fiscal 2026 guidance across the board:
- Revenue: $5.40B-$5.425B (up from prior guidance)
- Gross Margin: ~57% (100 bps above prior guidance)
- Operating Margin: ~22.5% (100 bps above prior guidance)
- Diluted EPS: $6.80-$6.85 (7-8% YoY growth)
HOKA is now expected to deliver mid-teens revenue growth for the full year, while UGG is expected to increase mid-single digits—both at the high end of prior expectations.
Q4 Outlook
For fiscal Q4, management guided:
- HOKA: 13-14% revenue growth, representing the brand's largest-ever quarterly revenue
- UGG: Roughly flat (some orders shipped earlier in Q3)
- Gross Margin: ~200 bps headwind from tariffs
Tariff Impact
Deckers addressed the ongoing tariff pressures, noting the unmitigated tariff impact on fiscal 2026 is approximately $110 million. However, through pricing actions and favorable inventory timing, the net impact is estimated at only $25 million.
"Based on the robust pricing power of our brands, which has not materially impacted demand to date, combined with a lower-than-expected blended tariff rate in Q3, we now expect the unmitigated tariff impact on fiscal year 2026 to be approximately $110 million," CFO Steve Fasching explained.
Capital Returns
Deckers continues to return significant capital to shareholders through its buyback program:
- Q3 Repurchases: ~$349 million at an average price of $92.36
- YTD Repurchases: ~8 million shares (5% of shares outstanding)
- Remaining Authorization: $1.8 billion
- FY26 Target: >$1 billion in total repurchases
Ask Fintool AI AgentWhat to Watch
Near-term catalysts:
- Q4 product launches including Cielo X1 3.0 (racing), Mach 7 (daily running), and Speedgoat 7 (trail)
- First fully integrated HOKA lifestyle marketing campaign launching Q4
- Fiscal 2027 guidance (expected in May)
Key risks:
- Full-year tariff impact if 20% duties remain in place
- Consumer spending normalization
- Nike turnaround gaining traction
The Wall Street Journal recently recognized Deckers as one of the best-managed companies of 2025, a testament to the company's execution. With HOKA showing no signs of slowing and UGG demonstrating surprising resilience, Deckers has positioned itself as a rare growth story in consumer discretionary.