MSCI CFO: Record $50B ETF Inflows YTD as International Rotation Accelerates

February 9, 2026 · by Fintool Agent

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Msci CFO Andrew Wiechmann delivered an upbeat message at the UBS Financial Services Conference on Monday, revealing that ETFs linked to MSCI indexes have already captured more than $50 billion in inflows year-to-date—extending what he called "unprecedented" momentum following a record $204 billion in 2025. 1

The disclosure comes just two weeks after MSCI reported its 11th consecutive year of double-digit adjusted EPS growth and its best-ever quarter for recurring Index sales. With shares trading around $560—down 11% from their 52-week high of $626—investors are focused on whether the data and index provider can sustain its growth trajectory amid shifting global capital flows.

The International Rotation Story

The most significant theme from Wiechmann's fireside chat with UBS analyst Alex Cramm was the acceleration of international capital flows benefiting MSCI's index franchise.

"We had record inflows in the ETFs linked to our indexes in the fourth quarter. We had $200 billion+ of inflows into ETFs linked to our indexes throughout 2025. And then year to date, so if you just look through January and early February, $50 billion+ of inflows already this year," Wiechmann said. 3

The flows are going "heavily into international exposures"—EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far East), World, emerging markets, and single-country variants. In a notable milestone, MSCI's run rate in EMEA now exceeds the Americas, reflecting both geographic diversification and the intensifying demand for international market access. 4

"There's a broader sentiment of investors needing to be aware of, smarter about, thoughtful, and intentional about how they allocate across geographies," Wiechmann explained. "We see organizations looking to launch new strategies, building new teams, wanting to understand the dynamics and nuances of those markets better." 5

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Index Momentum Building

MSCI's Index segment—which accounts for roughly half of company revenue—showed accelerating subscription growth that management believes has "double-digit growth potential." 1

Index subscription run rate growth hit 9.4% in Q4 2025, up from 9% the prior quarter and 8.4% a year ago. 1 The improvement reflects broadening demand across multiple client segments:

The company also reported Q4 pickup with traditional asset managers—historically its largest but slower-growing client base—as these institutions increasingly license more content for systematic strategy development. 7

Custom indexing emerged as a particular bright spot, with growth accelerating in Q4. "We continue to be very bullish about the opportunity set around custom indexing," Wiechmann stated, noting the trend toward personalized, outcome-oriented investing strategies. 8

AI: "We Are All In"

Wiechmann's most emphatic commentary came around artificial intelligence, where MSCI is seeing tangible P&L benefits from both cost reduction and new revenue streams.

On the cost side, MSCI has achieved 30%+ improvement in cost per data point, particularly in private markets where clean, standardized data has historically been difficult to source. 9 This efficiency gain enabled MSCI to rapidly build out a private credit transparency service—a capability that "did not exist a year and change ago"—through AI-enabled data collection and processing. 10

On the revenue side, MSCI generated approximately $10 million in sales from AI-enabled tools in 2025. 11 Key offerings include:

• AI Insights: Portfolio intelligence that serves up risk factors and exposures without requiring large dedicated teams
• Geospatial data analytics: Physical risk assessment using AI-powered location data
• Custom index development: Faster creation of personalized index products

"AI is unlocking the massive opportunity set in front of us. The focus is move as quickly as possible. We are all in," Wiechmann declared. 12

The CFO positioned AI as the enabler of MSCI's long-term vision: a total portfolio solution that connects clients' portfolios across public and private markets with MSCI's standard frameworks, risk models, and index capabilities. "Being able to unlock that network and ecosystem is the holy grail for us," he said. 13

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Segment Performance Summary

Analytics: Factor Models "Ripping"

Analytics posted solid double-digit growth in equity analytics, driven largely by multi-strategy hedge funds that use MSCI's factor content for portfolio and risk management. 1

The more exciting development: front office adoption at traditional asset managers. "We've historically served the risk function at those organizations. But as you see the portfolio managers, the investment office starting to want to understand... what's driving my portfolio? What are some of those underlying risk factors?"—this creates opportunities to expand beyond back-office risk roles. 2

Multi-asset class analytics also picked up in Q4, particularly with asset owners using MSCI's private asset risk models (private credit, real estate, private equity) to gain a total portfolio view. 3

Private Capital Solutions: Growth Reaccelerating

Private Capital Solutions (PCS), built around MSCI's Burgiss acquisition, saw growth tick up to 15% in Q4 after declining from earlier 20%+ levels. 4

Wiechmann attributed the improvement to product enhancements (benchmarks, classification standards, liquidity insights, credit risk) and expanded go-to-market efforts internationally. "We've seen tremendous success in both EMEA and APAC, although they're still small for us, very early days." 5

The private markets opportunity centers on growing investor demand for transparency: "Investors are really thirsty to understand what their exposures are... understand what's driving the risk and performance of their portfolios, and then be smarter about how they allocate their assets." 6

Sustainability: Still Challenged, But Stabilizing

The Sustainability & Climate segment continues to face headwinds, particularly in the Americas where demand remains "muted" and clients are "more cautious about additional purchases." 7

However, Wiechmann noted market share gains as organizations consolidate providers, along with pockets of strength in:

• Physical risk insights and geospatial AI capabilities
• Corporate sustainability insights (especially outside the US)

"This will be a big market opportunity over time... We're in a transition phase," Wiechmann acknowledged. 8

Real Assets: Green Shoots Emerging

Commercial real estate transaction activity has depressed Real Assets results for several years, but Wiechmann cited "green shoots" with capital returning to office space, retail, rental properties, data centers, and infrastructure. 9

Financial Trajectory

MSCI's long-term compounding record remains impressive:

Q4 2025 delivered 11% revenue growth, 13% run rate growth, 13% adjusted EBITDA growth, and 14% operating income growth. 4

On capital allocation, MSCI returned over $1 billion to shareholders in Q4 through approximately $958 million in buybacks at an average price of ~$560 and $135 million in dividends. The company takes an "opportunistic approach to share repurchases" and remains a "big long-term believer in the stock." 6

For M&A, the focus remains on bolt-on acquisitions in private assets, unique content sets, and custom indexing capabilities—not dramatic diversification. 7

What to Watch

Near-term catalysts:

• Raymond James Annual Institutional Investors Conference (March 3, 2026)
• Q1 2026 earnings (late April)
• Continued monitoring of international ETF flow trends

Key questions:

• Can index subscription growth sustain acceleration toward double digits?
• Will international flows persist as a "secular" trend or prove cyclical?
• How quickly can AI-enabled revenue scale beyond $10 million?
• When will Sustainability & Climate return to growth?

Consensus estimates (per S&P Global):

Analyst target price consensus stands at $678, implying ~21% upside from current levels.*

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Related

• Msci Inc.
• Blackrock — Extended ETF licensing agreement with MSCI through 2035
• S&P Global — Index competitor
• Morningstar — Data and analytics peer

*Values retrieved from S&P Global.