Rivian Meets 2025 Guidance Despite 18% Delivery Decline—R2 Launch Now Weeks Away

January 2, 2026 · by Fintool Agent

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Rivian Automotive-0.85% delivered 42,247 vehicles in 2025, down 18% from 51,579 in 2024 but squarely within its revised guidance of 41,500 to 43,500 units—a result the company called "in line with expectations" as it prepares for the most important product launch in its history.

The fourth quarter alone saw 9,745 deliveries, down 31% year-over-year from approximately 14,183 in Q4 2024, as the expiration of federal EV tax credits on September 30, 2025 continued to dampen consumer demand across the industry.

Shares fell 2.2% Friday, closing at $19.35—still up 46% over the past twelve months, outperforming Tesla+1.02%'s 16% gain over the same period.

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The R2 Catalyst

What makes this delivery report notable isn't the numbers themselves—it's the timing. The R2, Rivian's mass-market SUV priced around $45,000, is now weeks away from production. 1

"R2 delivers on the adventurous spirit customers expect from Rivian. It's also a great daily driver that will fit so many different use cases for our customers," CEO RJ Scaringe said in November. 2

The company completed construction of its 1.1 million square foot R2 body shop and general assembly facility in Normal, Illinois, along with a 1.2 million square foot supplier park. Robot commissioning is underway, manufacturing validation builds are expected to begin imminently, and the upgraded paint shop now supports total annual capacity of 215,000 units. 3

The R2's target market is enormous. "The average new vehicle purchase price in the United States is now just over $50,000 and the most popular configuration is a five seat SUV or crossover," Rivian noted in its Q3 shareholder letter. "We believe R2 is addressing the largest market opportunity with the right product." 4

That puts R2 in direct competition with Tesla's Model Y, the world's best-selling vehicle. With the Normal factory capable of producing up to 155,000 R2 units annually, Rivian is betting it can capture meaningful share of the segment that has made Tesla dominant. 5

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The Profit Trajectory

What's often overlooked in Rivian's delivery figures is the dramatic improvement in unit economics. The company achieved its first positive gross profit quarter in Q3 2025—$24 million—a $416 million improvement from the same period in 2024. 1

*Values retrieved from S&P Global

The software and services revenue surge—up 324% year-over-year to $416 million in Q3—reflects the transformative Volkswagen partnership that now underpins Rivian's financial model. 7

The Volkswagen Lifeline

Volkswagen Group-0.50% has committed up to $5.8 billion to Rivian through a joint venture focused on electrical architecture and software development—a deal that has fundamentally changed Rivian's financial trajectory. 8

The partnership has already delivered:

• $1.0 billion initial equity investment (convertible note, converted December 2024) 9
• $1.3 billion IP license payment for Rivian's electrical architecture and software (November 2024) 10
• $1.0 billion first additional equity tranche (June 2025, at $14.56/share) 11

Still committed:

• Up to $1.5 billion in additional equity tranches, subject to milestones 12
• $1.0 billion term loan facility available October 2026 13

Volkswagen now owns 11.6% of Rivian's voting power. 14

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The Autonomy Bet

At its December 11 Autonomy & AI Day, Rivian unveiled custom silicon that signals serious long-term ambitions. The Rivian Autonomy Processor (RAP1) is a 5nm chip delivering 1,600 sparse INT8 TOPS (trillion operations per second)—purpose-built for vision-centric autonomous driving. 1

"Our updated hardware platform, which includes our in-house 1600 sparse TOPS inference chip, will enable us to achieve dramatic progress in self-driving to ultimately deliver on our goal of delivering L4," Scaringe said. 2

The third-generation Autonomy Compute Module (ACM3), powered by RAP1 and integrated with LiDAR, will ship on R2 models starting in late 2026. 3

Rivian also introduced an autonomy subscription—Autonomy+—launching in early 2026 at $2,500 one-time or $49.99/month, starting with highway hands-free driving on over 3.5 million miles of roads in the US and Canada. 4

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Stock Resilience

Despite the delivery decline, Rivian has dramatically outperformed Tesla over the past year—a reversal of the typical pattern where Tesla's brand power commands premium valuations.

The outperformance reflects several factors: the Volkswagen partnership de-risking the balance sheet, R2's imminent launch opening a massive new market, and improving unit economics showing a path to profitability.

Analyst consensus places the target price at $16.58—meaning the stock currently trades at a premium to consensus.

*Values retrieved from S&P Global

What to Watch

Rivian will report Q4 and full-year 2025 financial results on February 12, 2026 after market close, with a webcast at 5:00 PM ET.

Key metrics to monitor:

1. R2 production timing – Confirmation of first deliveries in H1 2026
2. Gross margin trajectory – Continuation of positive territory
3. Cash burn rate – Runway into Georgia factory construction
4. VW milestone progress – Next tranche timing for remaining $1.5B equity
5. 2026 guidance – First year with R2 volume

The Georgia factory, which broke ground in September 2025, will eventually add 400,000 units of annual capacity and 7,500 jobs when both construction phases complete—expected around 2028. 3

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The Bottom Line

Rivian's 2025 was a year of preparation, not production. The 18% delivery decline masks the strategic progress: a completed R2 manufacturing line, a game-changing Volkswagen partnership, first positive gross profit, and custom autonomy silicon that positions the company for the long term.

The test now is execution. R2 needs to launch on schedule, at scale, and with the quality that has defined Rivian's premium brand. If it does, 2026 could be the year Rivian transitions from promising startup to legitimate volume manufacturer.

If it doesn't, the cash runway—while extended by Volkswagen—won't last forever.

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Related: Rivian Company Profile-0.85% · Tesla Company Profile+1.02% · Volkswagen Company Profile-0.50%