Alexander Duval

Alexander Duval from Goldman Sachs asked about the assumptions for the top end of ASML's 2026 sales guidance, specifically the extent to which it assumes a meaningful decline in China revenue. He also questioned ASML's long-term capacity planning beyond 80-90 EUV tools towards 2030, and how additional capacity could be delivered, including through R&D investments to make tools more productive.

Answer

CFO Roger Dassen clarified that China is expected to be 20% of sales across the entire 2026 guidance range. He identified customer readiness, ASML's execution, and strong installed base upgrades as key drivers for the upside. For the long term, Roger explained that 2030 capacity will include both Low NA (with higher throughput due to R&D) and a meaningful number of High NA tools. CEO Christophe Fouquet emphasized ASML's flexibility and planned productivity work to meet future demand.

Alexander Duval asked about the assumptions for the top end of ASML's 2026 sales guidance, specifically regarding China's contribution. He also questioned ASML's long-term capacity planning towards 2030, asking what would be required to push beyond the previously discussed 80-90 EUV tools and if R&D investments could enhance tool productivity to meet demand.

Answer

Roger Dassen, CFO, stated that China's 20% sales share is consistent across the entire 2026 guidance range. He identified customer readiness, ASML's execution, and strong demand for upgrades as key drivers for the upside. For long-term demand, he emphasized the role of High-NA tools and continuous R&D to increase productivity of Low-NA tools. Christophe Fouquet, CEO, reiterated ASML's flexibility to react to market developments, leveraging High-NA and productivity improvements.

Alexander Duval of Goldman Sachs asked for elaboration on the trend of increasing lithography intensity in leading-edge memory and its sustainability. He also requested an update on ASML's progress toward leveraging common platforms for future tool generations.

Answer

President & CEO Christophe Fouquet confirmed a sustained trend of increased EUV layer adoption by DRAM customers on their latest nodes to simplify complex roadmaps, a dynamic he sees as very positive. On platforms, he stated that ASML will continue to improve the current EUV platform through the end of the decade, with the next-generation common platform, similar to the High-NA platform, likely becoming available for Low-NA tools early in the next decade.

Alexander Duval asked for details on the T-Mobile U.S. contract extension and inquired about the key drivers behind the growing backlog in the Network Infrastructure segment amid macro uncertainty.

Answer

President and CEO Justin Hotard described the T-Mobile agreement as a 'significant multiyear extension' of their RAN contract, reinforcing a deep partnership. He attributed the Network Infrastructure backlog growth to strong demand from hyperscalers for AI and data center connectivity, which is driving optical networking needs and validating the Infinera acquisition. He noted the book-to-bill for both NI and Optical Networks was above 1.

Alexander Duval of Goldman Sachs questioned the rationale behind Ericsson's sub-seasonal Q4 revenue guidance for the Networks segment, given the strong ramp-up of the AT&T contract in Q3, and asked about the potential impact on group margins.

Answer

Lars Sandstrom, CFO, explained that the North American ramp-up in Q2 and Q3 was more intensive than initially expected. He anticipates this pace will normalize and moderate in Q4 and into the next year, based on a collaborative rollout schedule with the customer.

Alexander Duval of Goldman Sachs inquired whether the guidance for 'normal seasonality' in top-line growth should be considered the baseline, and if the AT&T contract win represents an upside to that or is already factored in.

Answer

CFO Lars Sandstrom clarified that the Q3 seasonality guidance already incorporates the anticipated growth from North America, including the AT&T contract, which is balanced against weaker conditions in other global regions. Therefore, it should not be considered an additional upside.