Yihan Li

Yihan Li of Barclays asked about Novo Nordisk's confidence in its estimate of the compounding market size and questioned how much of the revised guidance was attributable to the persistence of this illicit market.

Answer

David Moore, EVP of US Operations, confirmed their estimate of the compounding market is around 30% of the total, or one million patients, based on market research. Karsten Knudsen, EVP & CFO, clarified that the revised guidance for the year does not include any potential upside from a reduction in compounding, as any positive impact would likely be delayed into 2026 and beyond.

Yihan Li from Barclays asked for Novo Nordisk's confidence in its estimate of the U.S. compounding market size and how much the persistence of this market contributed to the company's revised full-year guidance.

Answer

David Moore (EVP - US Operations) stated the company's triangulation of research still points to the compounding market being around 30% of the total market, or one million patients. Karsten Knudsen (CFO) clarified that the revised guidance does not include any potential upside from a reduction in compounding, as any positive impact would be a delayed effect felt in 2026 and beyond.

Inquired about the statistical assumptions for the NANORAY-312 trial, specifically the potential for the control arm to overperform, and sought clarification on the 'derisked' milestone included in the cash runway calculation.

Answer

The company is confident in the NANORAY-312 trial design, as the required efficacy bar is lower than what was observed in the Phase 1/2 study, and a healthier patient population is expected to benefit the treatment arm. The 'derisked' milestone is a short-term payment related to trial recruitment progress, and the cash runway extends into the mid-2025 timeframe when interim results are expected.