Greif - Earnings Call - Q2 2025

Executive Summary

• Q2 2025 delivered resilient execution: net sales $1.386B, GAAP diluted EPS $0.82, adjusted EPS $1.19, and adjusted EBITDA $213.9M; adjusted EBITDA margin expanded ~300 bps YoY to 15.4% driven by price/cost tailwinds in Sustainable Fiber Solutions and cost optimization.
• Low-end FY2025 guidance raised: adjusted EBITDA to at least $725M and adjusted free cash flow to $280M; management cited better price/cost in fiber and disciplined cost structure; volume remains the key swing factor.
• Strategic actions continued: permanent closure of Los Angeles paperboard mill (72k tons capacity removed), progressing sale of timberland business (Soterra) with proceeds targeted to debt reduction; run-rate cost savings reached $10M exiting the quarter.
• Segment mix: Sustainable Fiber Solutions strength (price increases recognized by RISI) offset softness in Durable Metal Solutions; Customized Polymer Solutions growth aided by acquisitions and resilient end-markets (agrochemicals, food & bev, pharma, flavors & fragrances).
• Street catalyst: Guidance raise and margin expansion; additional upside if URB/containerboard pricing recognition continues and volumes recover; dividend maintained ($0.54/$0.81) supporting shareholder return.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Adjusted EBITDA up 26% YoY to $213.9M; margin expanded ~300 bps to 15.4% reflecting fiber price/cost improvements and operational discipline.
• Sustainable Fiber Solutions: adjusted EBITDA $79.5M vs $49.5M YoY; RISI recognized $40/ton containerboard and $30/ton URB increases; management targeting normalized ~20% fiber margins longer term.
• Cost optimization momentum: $10M run-rate savings achieved; management reiterated $15–$25M run-rate by FY25 exit and $100M total program, with targeted network optimization (e.g., LA mill closure).

What Went Wrong

• Durable Metal Solutions softness: net sales down $34.8M YoY on lower volumes and prices; adjusted EBITDA down slightly to $63.7M; volumes weak in North American industrial (chemicals/lubricants).
• SG&A elevated: driven by incentives, acquisitions (Ipackchem), and FX; target is <10% of sales over time via cost-out and scale recovery.
• Volume backdrop: management raised guidance but embedded bearish volume assumptions; fiber volumes down early in Q2, improved through quarter; volume remains the main variable to upside/downside.

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Greif Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising that your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the call over to your speaker today, Bill D'Onofrio, VP of Investor Relations and Corporate Development. Please begin.

Bill D'Onofrio (VP of Investor Relations and Corporate Development)

Thank you, and good day, everyone. Welcome to Greif's Fiscal Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. Today, our CEO, Ole Rosgaard, will begin with an update on our colleague and customer engagement, as well as progress on our cost optimization commitment. He will then discuss key global market trends. Our CFO, Larry Hilsheimer, will walk through second quarter financial results and 2025 guidance. Please turn to slide two. In accordance with regulation fair disclosure, please ask questions regarding topics you consider important because we are prohibited from discussing material non-public information with you on an individual basis. During today's call, we will make forward-looking statements involving plans, expectations, and beliefs related to future events. Actual results could differ materially from those discussed.

Additionally, we will be referencing certain non-GAAP financial measures and the reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP metrics that can be found in the appendix of today's presentation. I'll now hand the call over to Ole on slide three.

Ole Rosgaard (CEO)

Thank you, Bill, and good morning, everyone. I want to start by recognizing our more than 14,000 colleagues across the world. Their discipline, focus, and execution continue to drive strong performance. In Q2, we made further progress under our Built to Last strategy. Despite ongoing macroeconomic volatility, our resilient business model and emphasis on controlling what we can control give us confidence in the road ahead. That confidence is reflected in our decision to raise full-year guidance, which Larry will walk through shortly. Our culture remains a core competitive advantage. I'm proud to report that we have once again been named one of Newsweek's top 100 most loved workplaces in the world. This marks our third consecutive year on the list. In addition, we received Gallup's Exceptional Workplace Award for the second year in a row.

Our colleague engagement score places us in the 86th percentile of all manufacturing companies globally, with a remarkable 94% participation rate. These recognitions speak to the pride our teams take in their work and the environments we build where people feel empowered, valued, and connected to our purpose. That engagement drives legendary customer service. Our fiber team was recently honored with the Supplier Innovation Award from the US Postal Service. USPS joined us in 2024 and is now a key customer for our Dallas sheet feeder facility. This award is a strong validation of the long-term value and customer loyalty we create. Sustainability also sets us apart. While we view it as the right thing to do, it is also a clear business advantage. This marks our 16th consecutive year publishing sustainability report, a rare track record in our industry.

Our sustainability strategy is central to strengthening customer relationships and pursuing durable high-margin growth. Please turn to slide four. Our cost optimization efforts are progressing rapidly thanks to our team's focus and willingness to embrace change. As of quarter end, we have achieved $10 million in run rate savings toward our full-year commitment of $15 million-$25 million and $100 million total commitments compared to our 2024 baseline. A few highlights of projects on the way: a thank you to our colleagues in Warminster, ALCIP, Wellcome, and OSCOS. Our operations and engineering teams are embracing change and utilizing Six Sigma practices to advance scalable and structural change in process efficiency and scrap production across our metal and fiber production plants. Second, we made a strategic decision to close our L.A. paperboard mill, removing 72,000 tons of capacity.

While difficult, this step streamlines our network and improves long-term performance across our fiber operations. These are just two of many projects on the way. Each day, our conviction grows in our ability to achieve or exceed both our 2025 and 2027 commitments. Across the board, our strategy is working. We are sharpening our competitive edge, optimizing operations, and expanding in high-return markets that positions us well when demand accelerates. Please turn to slide five. Our portfolio continues to show resilience with especially strong performance in the areas we are investing. Polymer solutions volumes improved year-over-year with small containers and IPC both up. That impact was partially offset by lower large polymer drum volumes due to softer industrial demands. Our polymer's growth was driven by our target growth in markets of agrochemicals, food and beverage, pharma, and flavors and fragrances, which all showed year-over-year growth.

This contrasts with metals, which was down 5% year-over-year due to exposure to chemical and lubricant markets, which continues to be softer. Fiber solution volumes were down slightly compared to last year but improved each month throughout the quarter. Our corrugated business outperformed and was up high single digits per day versus an industry decline of 2%. This differentiation was driven by strong independent demand. Integrated solutions saw continued growth led by recycled fiber, while external volumes in closures, paints, linings, and adhesives held steadily as we managed our own internal needs versus external demands. It is interesting to note that last year was a leap year, giving one additional day of business as well. Demand remained stable across all regions outside North America. In North America, softness persisted due to greater exposure to industrial end markets. The key takeaway across the previous four slides is clear.

Our strategy is working. We are investing in resilient, high-growth markets, reinforcing our competitive strength and optimizing our cost base simultaneously. This all prepares us to capture even further upside when demand meaningfully rebounds. Please turn to slide six. In closing, I want to briefly touch on a topic which demonstrates the resilience of our business model: on tariffs. We are staying ahead of potential disruption. Year-to-date, we have not seen major demand shifts tied directly to tariffs, but we continue to monitor demand patterns and talk closely with customers to identify any potential impacts on our end markets. Our network of more than 250 facilities in over 40 countries allows us to buy, produce, and sell locally.

This flexibility minimizes disruption, serves our customers' needs more flexibly than competition, and allows us to obtain a fair price for the additional exceptional service and adaptability we provide our customers. Our global sourcing team continues to assess risks, and we reaffirm that our maximum direct cost exposure is less than $10 million annually, although that figure at present is even lower due to mitigation actions and tariffs currently in effect versus worst-case scenario. Meanwhile, we are capturing more value through network flexibility and pricing. We are also benefiting from pass-through mechanisms in our metals business as steel producers respond to raw material inflation. With that, I'll turn it over to Larry to walk through our Q2 financial performance on slide seven.

Larry A. Hilsheimer (EVP and CEO)

Thank you, Ole, and good morning, everyone. For the second quarter of fiscal 2025, adjusted EBITDA increased $44 million year-over-year to $214 million, and adjusted EBITDA margin was up 300 basis points to 15.4%. These results are a testament to our discipline, cost management, resilient business model, and our team's unwavering commitment to value creation. We generated $110 million of adjusted free cash flow, up from $59 million in Q2 of 2024, and adjusted EPS of $1.19 versus $0.83 in Q2 of 2024. The sale of our land management business, Satera, is on pace, and we are excited about the level and the quality of interest we've received. The proceeds from the Satera divestment, combined with our accelerating cash flow generation, will be used to reduce debt following our capital allocation framework as outlined at Investor Day.

Our decision to close our L.A. paperboard mill, while extremely difficult due to the impact on our colleagues, is a prime example of the next stage of optimization for growth. At our December Investor Day, we discussed how we've executed on the vast majority of opportunities in the lowest quartile of our quadrant analysis. We are now focused on moving from good operators to great operators across our global footprint of 250+ facilities. We are digging deeper to identify untapped opportunities to increase our return on invested capital within facilities in each quadrant. This may lead to strategic investment or closure, as was the case of L.A., but our actions will remain focused on deriving the highest long-term return on capital. Please turn to slide eight for a segment overview.

In our customized polymer solutions segment, adjusted EBITDA increased $19 million year-over-year to $53 million, driven by a combination of volume growth, favorable product mix, and continued discipline on value over volume pricing. Our polymer segment is performing well given the demand environment as our target growth end markets continue to be more resilient than other areas of our business. Durable metal solutions sales were lower year-over-year due to the softness of the industrial end markets Ole mentioned earlier. A core focus for us is capitalizing on operating leverage in metals when industrial end markets recover. Encouraging gross margins were up year-over-year through value over volume focus. Sustainable fiber solutions posted $80 million of adjusted EBITDA relative to $50 million in the prior year. EBITDA margins also improved to 13.3% from 8.5% in the prior year.

As a reminder, in February, RISI recognized $40 a ton of containerboard price increase, which contributed to this quarter's results. While we are certainly pleased with the improvement in price cost in our fiber business, we consider the market to be out of balance. The $30 a ton URB price increase recently recognized by RISI will continue to improve margins, but we have conviction that the demand we are seeing warrants recognition of the full $50-$70 a ton we announced in March. Those price increases will continue to push our fiber business towards normalized margins near 20% and get us closer to achieving our objective of greater than 18% margins for the enterprise. Integrated solutions delivered $17 million in adjusted EBITDA, up slightly from prior year.

While volumes were strong in Q2, the overall product mix was incrementally heavier on recycled fiber, which led to lower sales mix resulting in modest growth year-over-year. Sales were still up year-over-year in closures as we continue to grow that business. However, paints, linings, and adhesives had lower external volumes in the quarter. Please turn to slide nine to discuss guidance. We are raising low-end fiscal 2025 guidance. Adjusted EBITDA is now expected to be at least $725 million, up from $710 million, and adjusted free cash flow guidance is increased to $280 million from $245 million due to the increased EBITDA and improving operating working capital management. This phrase reflects the impact of better price cost performance in Q2 and revised higher price cost expectations for the second half.

Given this is low-end guidance, we reduce that impact with a more bearish volume assumption than in our previous guidance, as well as for the negative EBITDA impact of higher incentives due to our improved performance. The largest variable, which could provide upside to this low-end guidance, is volume. We are not yet providing a range due to the continuously evolving trading dynamics, but have high conviction in our raised low-end. This increase is not based on optimism. It is grounded in our demonstrated ability to execute. We've proven that Greif can deliver performance even in a challenging industrial economy. Price cost performance, especially in fiber, is improving. Polymers continue to grow, and our disciplined cost structure is enabling margin expansion. We're raising guidance because our actions are driving results, and we're confident in our ability to sustain this performance through the balance of the year.

With that, I'll turn it back to Ole on slide 10.

Ole Rosgaard (CEO)

Thanks, Larry. Let me close by underscoring what this quarter confirms. Our strategy is working. We are expanding margins, growing EBITDA, and generating strong free cash flow even in challenging macro environments. We set ambitious cost optimization commitments at our Investor Day, and we are delivering exactly as planned. Our commitment to achieving $1 billion in EBITDA and $500 million in free cash flow by 2027 is unwavering. As we have consistently done with every commitment we have given in the past, we are also delivering on these commitments. We remain focused on what we can control. The culture we have built, centered on high engagement, agility, and disciplined execution, continues to be a powerful competitive advantage to us. I have never been more confident in our team or more optimistic about Greif's future.

We are building a stronger company and doing it the right way for our customers, for our colleagues, and for our shareholders. Thank you for joining us today. Operator, will you please open the line for questions?

Operator (participant)

Yes. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. One moment for our first question. Our first question will be coming from Ghansham Panjabi of Baird. Your line is open.

Josh Vesely (Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, everyone. This is actually Josh Vesely for Ghansham. Thanks for taking my questions. Ole, you provided some good commentary on tariffs, and it seems like demand fluctuation was relatively minimal, but I'm just curious what those conversations with customers look like as it relates to kind of what they're seeing in that market demand and how they're thinking about that on a go-forward basis.

Ole Rosgaard (CEO)

Yeah. I mean, generally, the sentiment is really unchanged. If you look at housing, for instance, housing sales of existing housing is at its lowest since 1995, and auto builds at its lowest in three years. The tariffs that we keep talking about, they're just reoccurring themes. All this really has an impact, especially on our chemical customers. Until we see an improvement of existing house sales, which is linked to the interest rates, we don't really believe, and our customers don't really believe they'll see any demand improvement either. Did that answer your question?

Josh Vesely (Equity Research Analyst)

Great. Sorry. Yeah. No, that's great color. Thank you. Maybe just for my follow-up, just wanted to clarify on some of the raw material inflation that you were talking about that was tariff-related. Just any more color on what you guys are seeing there and what the near-term impact on EBITDA margins might be for the year?

Ole Rosgaard (CEO)

As I said, the maximum, the worst-case impact for us is around $10 million, but we're not even close to that. Our team have done a great job in minimizing that impact, and we are much, much lower than that at the moment. It is really non-material.

Larry A. Hilsheimer (EVP and CEO)

Yeah. Josh, the other element of that, obviously, is we've already seen steel producers in the U.S. push up cost or price. That then implies against our lower base inventory and provides some lift in margin that, while temporary until things catch up, will provide additional spread. This increase in tariffs to the 50% level would probably end up being helpful above our low-end guidance.

Ole Rosgaard (CEO)

It could actually end up being a tailwind for us, Josh. I just want to remind that we operate 250 facilities in over 40 countries. Most of our business is done locally. We source raw materials locally. We manufacture locally. We sell locally, which obviously means that tariffs do not come into play.

Josh Vesely (Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. Great. Thanks, guys. I'll turn it over.

Operator (participant)

One moment for our next question. Our next question will be coming from Michael Roxland of Truist Securities. Your line is open, Mike.

Michael Roxland (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Yeah. Thank you, Ole, Larry, Bill, and Dan for taking my questions and congrats on all the progress. The first question I have just on SG&A, which we believe remains elevated. I think there was a slight decline sequentially in SG&A as a percentage of revenue, but it's still above the average for last year. I'm just curious as to what's driving the elevated SG&A and what level of SG&A as a percent of sales are you targeting and over what time?

Larry A. Hilsheimer (EVP and CEO)

Yeah. You have got a couple of factors going in. I mentioned in my commentary somewhat an increase in incentives because your team's performing well. That has a little bit of impact. You have got the entry of the sort of full quarter of IPACKCHEM, and then you have got currency impacts, which on the bottom line are actually a lift, but on SG&A, it is increasing it. Yeah, we agree with you. Our SG&A is higher than what we view it to need to or should be over a long period of time. As part of our cost optimization efforts, we would like to see as the volume recovers and our revenue goes back, we expect our SG&A to be below 10%.

Now, it gets somewhat inflated when you're doing acquisitions because you end up with depreciation related to tangibles that flows in there, but that, as a general rule, is what our target is longer term, Michael.

Michael Roxland (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Very helpful. Just to put a bow on that, it's largely there are some factors in terms of incentive comp and IPACKCHEM and MuleLeaf facts, but really you're expecting accelerating revenue to bring down that ratio. It's more market-related in terms of driving that ratio.

Larry A. Hilsheimer (EVP and CEO)

No, it's a combination. Yeah, I mean, ultimately, we do obviously, there'd be an impact to the ratio related to the recovery of volumes. Our cost optimization is one of our key focuses, obviously. We announced a $100 million cost optimization. I'd call it business optimization over our entire platform. Some of that relates into business operations. Some of it's SG&A, but it's over our 24 levels. Yeah, it's a combination, but I just was trying to give you the long-term impact. We try to get down below that 10%, which would be a combination of some revenue recovery, but a lot of it's still cost out.

Michael Roxland (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Got it. No, I appreciate all the color. Just my second question. You mentioned strong URB demand. Would you believe you'll warrant the full price increase of $50-$70 a ton? If you get that incremental $20-$40 a ton in URB pricing, all else equal, what type of incremental EBITDA should we expect you generate? What type of margin would you have in sustainable fiber as a result of that? Quickly, just lastly, do you see the potential for further rationalization in CRB and maybe just becoming solely focused on URB and containerboard? Thanks very much.

Larry A. Hilsheimer (EVP and CEO)

Let me answer the last piece first and then come back to the incremental impact on pricing. The remaining CRB machine we have is actually a swing machine. We can swing between URB and CRB depending on the market demand. Right now, we're a niche little player in our space. We're happy with the operations there, and we don't really have any plan to make it full-time URB, or we're just taking advantage of whatever we can get in the market. Relative to the impact of pricing, about a $10 a ton change in URB pricing is about $530,000 a month for us. Hopefully, that gives you something to work with.

Ole Rosgaard (CEO)

Mike, just an added comment to what Larry said. On the CRB, we will continue to optimize paper grades by highest return. If we swing a machine to URB from CRB, that's what we will do if that's what it provides us.

Michael Roxland (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Got it. Thank you very much again.

Operator (participant)

One moment for our next question. Our next question will be coming from Matt Roberts of Raymond James. Your line is open, Matt.

Matt Roberts (Research Analyst)

Hey. Ole, Larry, good morning. First question. On the volume, I believe you said not giving a range, but maybe could you just help me understand what underpins the 725 guide and related to tariff impacts on volumes? I know you noted no demand shifts, but in light of Liberation Day in early April, could you provide some incremental color into demand in April, whether there was any front-running ahead of that or how trends have progressed in April and May? Seems like more recently, there's a window open in the tariffs. I'm wondering if you've seen any spike more recently there.

Larry A. Hilsheimer (EVP and CEO)

Yeah. Ole can supplement what I say, but we haven't seen really any trends specifically tied to tariffs, even in indications with customers. It really, particularly in the U.S., has a whole lot more to do with interest rates and home building and the demand impact that's having on the chemicals industry and even auto production being down, which perhaps that's indirectly tied to tariffs. What we saw is if I go from our prior low-end guidance of $710 million-$725 million, we got about $53 million, roughly, price-cost benefit in that, which metal solutions is up $17 million, polymer solutions is up $17 million, fiber solutions is up $26 million, and integrated with the OCC cost coming down is down $8 million.

If you go on the volume side, we're down about $5 million in metal solutions, about $5 million in polymer solutions, and down $30 million in fiber solutions just relative to just an overall impact relative to where we were previously.

Ole Rosgaard (CEO)

Hey, Matt, just on tariffs. Directly, impact, that's something we can control. There is no direct impact on us. One thing we cannot control, that's the indirect impacts. When tariffs affect the overall demands in the markets, that obviously has an effect on all of us, which is something we can't control. We do have the flexibility to adapt production for customers, and we will price for it. All ranges of these outcomes, they are considered in Larry's revised guidance.

Matt Roberts (Research Analyst)

Thank you very much for that incremental color there. For my follow-up, specifically in polymer, you noted business wins and market-driven growth in target end markets. I think if you'll elaborate on what you're expecting in those target end markets for the rest of the year and more specifically on those new business wins, what areas were they in, and what do you attribute those to? Is it greater scale, or are you starting to realize cost-saving benefits following acquisitions? Is it customer service tools providing a benefit as Rife Plus is rolled out further? Just any incremental color there on those new market wins. Thanks again for taking the questions.

Ole Rosgaard (CEO)

Let me just zoom out and then go back to we often reference Invest Today, but that's where we presented our whole strategy. Our growth strategy hinges around the following end segments, and it's agrochemical, food and bev, flavor and fragrances, and pharma. Those end segments, they grow faster than GDP. That's why we have picked them to really focus on them. The products that service those segments, they are polymer products. That's why we are focusing on polymer in our strategy. What we have seen here in the quarter is exactly that, that those end segments have proven to be more resilient than other end markets, exactly as we planned and expected. Also, we have grown year-over-year in those end segments. The overall growth in our polymer has been 1.5% year-over-year.

Our legacy polymer business, which is large polymer drums, especially in North America, that market serves the chemical industry, the industrial side of it, and that market's down. Even with that, we still have seen overall growth in the polymer markets.

Matt Roberts (Research Analyst)

Good to see. Thank you, Ole.

Operator (participant)

One moment for our next question. Our next question will be coming from George Stafford of Bank of America Securities. Your line is open, George.

George Stafford (Analyst)

Thanks so much. Hi, everyone. Good morning. Hope you can hear me okay. Thanks for the details.

How are you?

My questions to start, I know we have two questions here, is on paperboard broadly. When we consider the L.A. closure and also Austell, what will that do ultimately to your blended cost per ton and/or margin as you see it normalized for the business? Given the closures, will it require you to adjust operations or inventory management since you'll have fewer facilities to produce from, and therefore, you might need to keep more buffer stock or do other things from an operating standpoint? Cost per ton given the closures and then operating adjustments that you might need given the closures. I had a follow-on.

Larry A. Hilsheimer (EVP and CEO)

Yeah. George, I don't have the answer for you on what the cost per ton impact is. What I can tell you is that with the closures of Pittsburgh and L.A. and Austell, after we get through the transitionary costs that sort of offset that stuff, that'll be an annual bottom line, even a cost impact of a +$10 million a year to the bottom line. As we said, on each of those facilities, the end customer mix, we've shifted what made sense to being served out of our existing mill footprint. Obviously, that all factors in to drive a lower average cost per ton and higher margin that drives to that bottom line $10 million impact for that. Yeah, we haven't looked at what the average cost per ton impact is, unfortunately.

George Stafford (Analyst)

Just on the operations, aside from sort of optimizing your production relative to your target end markets, anything else that you would relate to us that we'll be able to discern, watch, monitor in your financials?

Larry A. Hilsheimer (EVP and CEO)

Yeah. I mean, obviously, it's all part of, as you noted, our cost optimization, our cost-out program. I would just add to that $10 million on the bottom line for fiscal 2026 and forward.

George Stafford (Analyst)

Okay. That's fine, Larry. I was getting more into sort of how you run the business, but I'll leave it there. I guess on the cost-out program and the progress you're making towards the goal of on the high end, $25 million this year and the $10 million I think you've got through 2Q, are the categories of benefit the same throughout the year? Do they evolve? If they do evolve over the course of the next couple of quarters, what does that mean in terms of the business and the margin both the rest of the year and into 2026? I'll turn it over there. I'll come back if I can.

Larry A. Hilsheimer (EVP and CEO)

Ole may add some color too, but basically, what we've got so far is a combination of operational cost out and some SG&A cost reductions. To reemphasize, the $10 million is what it'd be run rate, what we know will be run rate this year. $5 million is what we'll actually realize this year. The $10 million I mentioned from those three mill closures does not impact this year. We've effectively locked up against our long-term objective, already $20 million of the $100 million kind of thing. This whole program goes against the broad cost structure and revenue opportunities of our business, whether it's manufacturing cost or SG&A. We're very pleased with the progress to date. We've even enhanced our confidence of getting to our billion-dollar-plus commitment for going into 2028 with every month that we go further.

Ole Rosgaard (CEO)

Josh, just to give you some color, you'll remember that last year, we reorganized the business, which was really the planned precursor for doing the business optimization. The business optimization, we have more than 70 work streams in motion at the moment. They are SG&A rationalization, network optimization, operating efficiency gains, and so on. In terms of the millions we talk about, we're playing on the whole piano, and we will continue to do that. There's things that's in flight that we can't talk about on the earnings call. I can just mention again that we have over 70 work streams in flight.

George Stafford (Analyst)

Very good. I'll turn it over. I'll have one more question when we come back in queue if we get there. Thanks.

Operator (participant)

As a reminder to ask a question, please press star one one from your touch-tone telephone. Our next question will be coming from Gabe Hajde of Wells Fargo. Gabe, your line is open.

Gabe Hajde (Research Analyst)

Ole, Larry, Bill, good morning.

Ole Rosgaard (CEO)

Good morning.

Gabe Hajde (Research Analyst)

I wanted to ask about slide eight. You referenced some price and volume impacts in the metals business. I'm just curious if you're specifically calling anything out from a competitive standpoint or if this is in relation to steel. Maybe revisiting the question that Matt Roberts was asking about on slide six, it seems like there's sort of two discrete items. You've got an identified up to $10 million impact, and it's not clear if that's volume-related or cost-related. Maybe if you can clarify that. I think two bullet points down, you say there's a potential positive head or tailwind from, I'm assuming, rising steel. If you didn't, can you quantify that for us, or was that included in the $17 million of favorable price cost that you called out, Larry, in response to another question?

Larry A. Hilsheimer (EVP and CEO)

Yeah. It is included in there, Gabe. What we are referencing relative to the metals business is the fact that in the U.S., cost index have risen, causing our price adjustment mechanisms to kick in against lower-cost inventory. Now, what we have not tried to build in, because it is speculative right now, is is there going to be incremental to that because of this newly announced increase to the 50% level on tariffs? We have built nothing in for that. Your first question on page eight, can you repeat that?

Gabe Hajde (Research Analyst)

Yeah. I mean, it just says in the metal segment, sales were impacted by both price and volume. I didn't know if that was competitive price or if you're talking about the positive price impact.

Larry A. Hilsheimer (EVP and CEO)

No, talk about the positive price development. Yeah, the price-cost mix was positive. The volume was negative.

Ole Rosgaard (CEO)

The negative volume was mainly attributed to North America, which relies on the industrial sectors of chemical.

Gabe Hajde (Research Analyst)

Yep. Okay. Maybe what George was trying to get at was integration in the URB business. I mean, I think if I did my math right, you're around 650,000 tons now of URB capacity. Is the goal there to be fully integrated, or are you there already? If not.

Larry A. Hilsheimer (EVP and CEO)

No, this goes back, Gabe. We've said this all along. Integration is not that important in that business because of the breadth of customers that there are out there, the numbers of them and the small number. Integration value just becomes much less important in that space than it is in the containerboard space. Bill, do you know what our integration level even is on URB?

Ole Rosgaard (CEO)

It's over 50%.

Gabe Hajde (Research Analyst)

Yeah. Okay.

Larry A. Hilsheimer (EVP and CEO)

So yeah. So we're happy with it. If there were really high-margin opportunities to acquire integration, we'd do it. I mean, sort of like the ColePak acquisition we did. We've talked about that's a joint venture we have, and we're thrilled with it because really nice high-margin business on the beverage divider business. But it's not something that we need to seek out because of the just general structure of that industry.

Gabe Hajde (Research Analyst)

Perfect. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question will be a follow-up from George Stafford of Bank of America Securities. Your line is open.

George Stafford (Analyst)

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. Larry, I seem to remember in the discussion that you said on the increase in the guidance in the low end, you were still building in some, I guess, additional volume downside. That might not have been your phrasing, but nonetheless, in the worst-case scenario, if I got that correctly, can you tell us a little bit about where you are sort of baking in a little bit worst-case on volume? Thank you very much, and good luck in the quarter.

Larry A. Hilsheimer (EVP and CEO)

Yeah. I mean, yeah, we did have a walk, and I gave the numbers on the volume element of that that shows a volume impact of a -40. A lot of that within the fiber business already happened in the second quarter. Like we said, each month it got better through the second quarter. I was just giving it relative to where we were in Q1. We already talked about metals being less, and also we build in some on polymers. Again, we build in sort of worst-case scenario in giving our low-end guidance. What we've provided is low-end, and we have extreme confidence in delivering it. Those are the factors that I gave you, George. Current demand pretty much was expected, a little slower start to fiber in Q2, got improved.

Backlogs are really now about as high as they've been in two years. And then cautionary stuff.

George Stafford (Analyst)

Understood. On pricing, you mentioned ultimately that you still think $50-$70 per ton was, and again, this is my phrasing, not yours, appropriate relative to the tension in the URB market. With that, if that's correctly sort of phrased, are you still attempting to get a full price hike in the market, or have you at this juncture stopped and you've taken what you've taken? Thanks again, and good luck in the quarter.

Larry A. Hilsheimer (EVP and CEO)

No, no, no. We're obviously still working that price increase in the market where we're not on index-tight contracts.

Ole Rosgaard (CEO)

Just call that our backlogs are actually stronger than in 2+ years at the moment.

George Stafford (Analyst)

Understood. Thank you, guys.

Operator (participant)

I would now like to turn the conference back to Ole Rosgaard for closing remarks.

Ole Rosgaard (CEO)

Thank you. I want to say thank you for your time today and also for your continued interest and investment in Greif. We remain committed to continue delivering exceptional results and are focused on accelerating our performance towards our 2027 target of $1 billion EBITDA and $500 million in free cash flow. We are confident that our relentless pursuit of operational excellence and customer-centric growth will create enduring value for all our stakeholders. Thanks again for joining us today.

Operator (participant)

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.