Q4 2024 Summary
Published Feb 14, 2025, 8:41 PM UTC- Honeywell is encouraged by the recovery in orders and revenue in their Industrial Automation and Building Automation segments during the fourth quarter, indicating that as short-cycle products recover, it will be massively accretive to performance.
- The Aerospace segment has a strong positive backlog in Original Equipment (OE) and expects OE to grow, which, combined with a stable aftermarket, supports sustained growth in the aerospace business.
- Margin expansion is anticipated in three out of four business segments, with acquisitions contributing to margin improvement, especially in the second half, demonstrating effective integration and cost-saving strategies to enhance profitability.
- Margin Pressure from Acquisitions and Integration Costs: Honeywell expects aerospace segment margins to decline in 2025 due to the dilutive impact of the CAES acquisition and significant integration costs, which will offset improvements in other segments. This margin pressure limits overall margin expansion potential for the company.
- Cautious Growth Outlook Amid Uncertain Demand Recovery: Honeywell's 2025 guidance does not assume a recovery in end markets and projects only 2% to 5% organic sales growth, indicating management's caution due to an uncertain macroeconomic environment and potential weakness in short-cycle products. This suggests limited earnings growth potential in the near term.
- Increased Below-the-Line Costs Impacting Earnings: Higher net interest expenses from recent M&A activity, increased repositioning costs, and reduced pension income are expected to create $0.50 of negative pressure on 2025 earnings per share compared to the previous year. These costs offset the profit contributions from acquisitions, resulting in a net neutral effect from M&A in 2025.
Metric | YoY Change | Reason |
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Total Revenue | +7% | Total Revenue reached $10,088 million in Q4 2024, up 7% YoY versus Q4 2023. This growth was driven by a continuation of the strong pricing actions, incremental acquisitions, and solid performance across key segments observed in prior periods, building on improvements seen in Q3 2024. |
Aerospace Revenue | +8.5% | Aerospace revenue increased from about $3,673 million to $3,986 million, reflecting higher organic sales in both Defense and Commercial Aviation segments as well as contributions from recent acquisitions. These gains sustain the momentum established in Q3 2024 with increased flight hours and enhanced shipment volumes. |
Honeywell Building Technologies | +19% | Revenue climbed from approximately $1,504 million to $1,798 million, primarily driven by the acquisition of Access Solutions which added $177 million, and strong organic growth in Building Solutions. This builds on earlier Q3 trends where improved pricing and project demand were already contributing to performance. |
Performance Materials & Technologies | –43% | The decline from around $3,029 million to $1,733 million reflects a significant reclassification of this segment into Industrial Automation and Energy and Sustainability Solutions. Additionally, weaker demand—such as reduced interest in gas processing projects previously seen—has negatively impacted the legacy PMT numbers compared to prior periods. |
Safety and Productivity Solutions | +109% | Revenue more than doubled from nearly $1,227 million to $2,566 million. This robust growth is attributed to a strong turnaround in order execution and likely benefits from the reorganization and reclassification of the segment, which contrasts sharply with the previous decline seen in Q3 2023. |
Operating Income | –23% | Operating Income fell by about 23%, from roughly $2,271 million to $1,745 million. The decline is mainly due to higher direct and indirect material and labor costs, incremental acquisition-related expenses, and a significant impairment charge of $125 million—factors that had also emerged in the Q3 2024 period. |
Net Income | +2% | Net Income increased modestly from $1,263 million to $1,285 million (approximately +2%), driven by cost control measures and modest revenue growth. This improvement comes despite headwinds such as rising interest expenses and prior period impairments, marking a slight recovery relative to earlier challenges seen in Q3 2024. |
Basic EPS | +3% | Basic EPS improved from $1.92 to $1.98 (roughly +3% YoY). This increase reflects higher segment profitability and favorable effects from a lower share count, helping to offset the negative impacts of impairment charges and increased interest costs noted in earlier periods. |
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sales | Q1 2025 | no prior guidance | $9.5B to $9.7B (flat to up 2% organic) | no prior guidance |
Effective Tax Rate | Q1 2025 | no prior guidance | 22% | no prior guidance |
Sales | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | $39.6B to $40.6B (2% to 5% organic growth) | no prior guidance |
Segment Margin | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | Up 60 to 100 basis points | no prior guidance |
Free Cash Flow | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | $5.4B to $5.8B (down 2% to up 5% excl. Bombardier) | no prior guidance |
Adjusted EPS | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | $11.10 to $11.50 (up 2% to 6% year-over-year) | no prior guidance |
Price Growth | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | Expected to be above 2% | no prior guidance |
Effective Tax Rate | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | 20% | no prior guidance |
Average Shares | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | Decline from ~655M to ~649M shares outstanding | no prior guidance |
Metric | Period | Guidance | Actual | Performance |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sales | Q4 2024 | $10.2B to $10.4B | $10.088B | Missed |
Sales | FY 2024 | $38.6B to $38.8B | $38.498B (sum of Q1 2024: 9,105+ Q2 2024: 9,577+ Q3 2024: 9,728+ Q4 2024: 10,088) | Missed |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
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Aerospace growth | Consistently noted as a key growth driver with strong organic sales and robust aftermarket demand. Growth in both commercial and defense segments, with record backlogs supporting future revenue. | Remains the predominant top-line driver with mid- to high-single-digit organic growth expected. Commercial Aftermarket still solid but may decelerate slightly. OE growth outpacing aftermarket. | Continues to be a major focus; sentiment remains positive but includes caution on slight aftermarket deceleration. |
Aerospace backlog | Cited as record-level backlog across Q1–Q3 with 10%-plus year-over-year growth, supporting future quarters. Includes long-term agreements like Bombardier. | Reached $35.3B in Q4, up 11% year-over-year. Excluding acquisitions, up 6% YoY and 1% sequentially. | Continues at record levels, providing multi-year tailwinds. |
Aerospace margin shifts | Previous quarters noted mix pressure from OE vs. aftermarket, with acquisitions (CAES) creating short-term dilution. Margins generally in the 23-27% range, driven by volume leverage vs. integration costs. | Flat core margins ~27%, but 100 bps decline expected in 2025 from CAES integration. Acquisition is short-term dilutive but accretive long term. | Ongoing margin pressure from new acquisitions; guidance remains cautiously optimistic on long-term profitability. |
Industrial automation | Faced short-cycle demand softness, declining organic sales in Q1–Q3, especially in warehouse & workflow. Some sequential improvement expected in the back half of the year. | 5-point sequential improvement from Q3 to Q4 in organic growth , but sales projected down low single digits in 2025. | Demand remains tepid, though slight sequential improvement is noted; cautious outlook continues. |
Building automation | Overall steady growth but mixed performance in short-cycle vs. long-cycle solutions. Increasing project wins in data centers, airports, hospitality. Margins generally in mid-20% range. | 5-point sequential improvement in Q4. 2025 outlook sees low- to mid-single-digit growth, with stronger BA margins from productivity actions and acquisitions. | Stable growth with improved margins expected; sentiment remains constructive due to backlog and projects. |
Short-cycle product recovery | Discussed as slower-than-expected in Q1–Q3, especially affecting Industrial Automation and warehouse automation. Considered massively accretive if it fully returns. | Muted demand persists; no recovery assumed in 2025 guidance, but could be “massively accretive” if demand rebounds. | Continued caution as recovery has not materialized; significant upside potential remains. |
Emerging markets (India, ME, China) | India & Middle East seen as growth tailwinds. China noted with flat to slight contraction in automation, strong in aerospace/energy. Saudi included in Middle East growth. | India & Middle East remain growth drivers; China under demand pressure for automation. No significant improvement assumed in 2025. | Persistent regional divergence with India & Middle East strong, China weaker; unchanged cautious stance. |
Strategic acquisitions (CAES) | Frequent mentions in Q1–Q3 about CAES and other deals (Access Solutions, Civitanavi). Short-term dilution but long-term accretive growth. Integration costs also highlighted as an EPS headwind. | CAES creates ~100 bps aerospace margin headwind in 2025 but grows at accretive rates. Overall acquisitions add ~$2B in sales in 2025. | Continued emphasis on integration; near-term margin pressure but positive long-term contribution. |
Margin expansion vs. margin pressure | Mixed across Q1–Q3: Aerospace with some pressure from OE mix and acquisitions, IA & BA with modest expansions from productivity, ESS generally expanding from catalysts. | Aerospace margins pressured by CAES , while IA, BA, ESS are expected to drive margin expansion in 2025. | Continuing margin tension in aerospace balanced by improvements in other segments. |
Uncertain demand & cautious guidance | Q1–Q3 calls highlighted slower short-cycle rebound and macroeconomic concerns, leading to tightened or lowered guidance. | No short-cycle recovery assumed; guidance remains conservative for 2025 due to macroeconomic & geopolitical uncertainties. | Continued caution with prudent baseline outlook, though potential upside if demand recovers. |
Warehouse automation | Mentioned in Q1–Q3 with weak near-term demand; big capital requirements slowed adoption. Aftermarket portion growing. | No direct mention in Q4 2024 call. | Topic dropped in Q4; remains implied under short-cycle softness. |
Energy & sustainability solutions | Referenced in Q1–Q3 with steady growth in catalysts, advanced materials, moderate segment margin expansion. | Mentioned as facing quarterly lumpiness but contributing to record backlog; margins impacted by timing of large projects. | Ongoing but less spotlight; remains part of long-cycle growth. |
Below-the-line costs (interest etc.) | Discussed in Q1–Q3 as EPS headwind from interest, repositioning, pension. | ~$0.50 EPS pressure in 2025 from integration costs, higher interest, reduced pension income. | Growing impact on reported EPS; integration & interest remain key drags. |
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Separation Costs and Free Cash Flow
Q: Can you provide details on stranded costs and free cash flow conversion for Aerospace and Automation?
A: Management expects both Aerospace and Automation businesses to achieve around 100% free cash flow conversion this year and next. One-time separation costs are estimated at $1.5 billion to $2 billion, depending on structuring. Stranded costs are not yet specified, but they aim to eliminate them within 18 to 24 months post spin. -
Free Cash Flow Conversion and RemainCo
Q: How will you reach 100% free cash flow conversion from current 83%? Which business will be RemainCo?
A: They are guiding to $5.4 to $5.8 billion in free cash flow, aiming to reach 100% conversion over the next 24 months. The key is reducing working capital, particularly WIP and finished goods inventory in Aerospace. The specific structuring—whether Aerospace or Automation will be the RemainCo—is yet to be determined. -
Operating Margin Outlook
Q: Will you pursue more aggressive cost reductions in 2025 given flattish margin guidance?
A: They plan to increase repositioning costs by about $100 million year-over-year to fund margin expansion. While three segments (excluding Aerospace) will expand margins, Aerospace margins are pressured due to the CASE acquisition, which is initially dilutive but expected to be accretive to segment profit growth in 2025 and beyond. -
Impact of M&A and Below-the-Line Items
Q: Is the $0.52 of below-the-line items mainly higher interest expense from M&A?
A: Yes, $0.33 of the $0.52 is interest expense, primarily from M&A. There is also $0.10 of incremental repositioning costs, $0.04 of corporate costs, and reduced pension income due to a European pension plan curtailment. M&A is expected to be net neutral in 2025, with 1% to 2% accretion still anticipated. -
Leadership Post-Separation
Q: When will you announce management teams for the separated businesses? External search for Aerospace?
A: Management teams will be announced over time, with the current Honeywell leadership expected to continue. The Board will decide on leadership for Honeywell and Honeywell Aerospace, with more details in the next 12 to 18 months.