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    JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK)

    Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Mar 7, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$34.82Last close (Feb 20, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$30.50Open (Feb 21, 2025)
    Price Change
    $-4.32(-12.41%)
    • Strong Financial Position and Dividend Initiation: JAKKS Pacific has initiated a quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share, reflecting their strong financial position and confidence in generating free cash flow while still retaining sufficient capital for future growth opportunities, such as acquiring new intellectual property or making potential acquisitions.
    • Increased Retail Presence Due to Broad Product Offering: The company is experiencing increased shelf space and placement in physical retailers globally, attributed to their broad array of products and three-tier development process which caters to different retail segments (mass market, secondary accounts, and value trade). This strategy has allowed JAKKS to gain significant placement compared to competitors, not just in North America but also in EMEA, Southeast Asia, and Latin America.
    • Reduced Risk from Currency Fluctuations and Strong Inventory Management: JAKKS is well insulated against currency fluctuations due to a high percentage (75-80%) of sales being U.S. dollar-denominated, and costs negotiated in USD or Hong Kong dollars. Additionally, their methodical inventory management and high percentage of FOB sales (approximately 75%) reduce risks, increase efficiency, and enhance cash flow, positioning them favorably compared to competitors.
    • The company's increasing focus on low-price point value-focused retailers, such as Five Below and similar value segments, could put pressure on profit margins due to lower price points and tighter margins.
    • Potential risks associated with tariffs may impact the company's cost structure and inventory management. While the company plans to bring in some inventory to mitigate tariffs, this may lead to higher inventory levels and associated risks if products do not sell as expected.
    • Dependence on licensed properties and blockbuster movies for sales growth may pose a risk if these movies underperform or fail to generate expected consumer interest. Although management claims to have a diversified portfolio not dependent on box office success, the timing and success of movie releases like Moana 2 and Sonic the Hedgehog 3 could still significantly impact sales.
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue

    +2.6% (from roughly $127.5M to $130.74M)

    Slight overall revenue growth was driven by a sharp increase in the Costumes segment (+45% YoY) which offset the nearly flat performance in Toys/Consumer Products; however, rising product costs contributed to margin pressures compared to prior periods.

    Toys/Consumer Products

    Nearly flat (from $118.87M to $118.22M)

    The segment maintained stable sales, reflecting balanced demand in contrast to previous periods where mixed market conditions were noted; this stability is in line with the company’s historical performance.

    Costumes

    +45% (from $8.6M to $12.48M)

    A dramatic rise in the Costumes segment, growing by 45% YoY, suggests a robust return to normal ordering patterns and stronger demand compared to previous periods which saw varied performance due to seasonal and supply chain factors.

    Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)

    +212% (from $68.87M to $215.27M)

    An explosive increase in COGS by over 212% YoY indicates that rising product costs (and perhaps changes in inventory or product mix valuation) are now a major headwind, sharply contrasting with earlier periods where improved supply chain management helped drive costs down.

    Operating Income

    Deteriorated to a loss of $34.76M from a loss of $15.34M

    The operating loss deepened as the rising COGS and increased overhead combined with only modest revenue growth, reversing earlier improvements seen in prior quarters where gross margin expansion had supported operating income.

    Net Income

    Worsened to a loss of $14.79M from a loss of $10.87M

    The net loss grew as the higher cost base (particularly the surge in COGS) and operational challenges outweighed the modest sales increases, leading to further deterioration in diluted EPS (from -$1.10 to -$1.44) compared to the previous period.

    Interest Expense

    Increased from $71K to $157K (more than doubled YoY)

    Interest expense more than doubled due to a rise in borrowing costs or changes in the company’s debt profile, which contrasts with earlier periods where debt reductions had helped lower the expense.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Gross Margin

    FY 2024

    minimum of 30% gross margins on a full‐year basis

    no guidance provided for FY 2024

    no current guidance

    MetricPeriodGuidanceActualPerformance
    Gross Margin
    FY 2024
    "Minimum of 30% gross margin on a full-year basis"
    ~27%, derived by summing Q1–Q4 2024 Revenue (90,076, 148,619, 321,606, 130,741) minus COGS (53,821, 76,599, 158,77, 215,266) and dividing by total FY 2024 Revenue (90,076+ 148,619+ 321,606+ 130,741)
    Missed
    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Financial Strength and Capital Allocation Strategy

    In Q1–Q3, discussions focused on achieving a debt‑free status, improving cash flow and liquidity, and cautiously evaluating capital allocation options (acquisitions, buybacks, or dividends) as seen in Q1 ( ), Q2 ( ), and Q3 ( ).

    Q4 emphasized an even stronger financial position with no long‑term debt, robust free cash flow, and the initiation of a quarterly dividend, reinforcing shareholder returns ( ).

    Consistent focus with enhanced capital return measures and overall positive sentiment.

    Retail Presence and Global Expansion

    Across Q1–Q3, the company highlighted securing additional retail placements, launching private label initiatives, and expanding internationally (notably in Europe and Latin America) through improved infrastructure and strategic partnerships ( , , , , ).

    In Q4, the narrative continues with an emphasis on value‑focused retailers and e‑commerce events, alongside robust Latin American growth (e.g., $38M sales with 19% growth) and further expansion of European facilities ( ).

    Continued expansion with increased emphasis on diversified channels and international market growth.

    Licensed IP Portfolio and Blockbuster Dependence

    Q1 through Q3 discussions mixed blockbuster‐tied product launches with efforts to build an evergreen, diversified IP portfolio, balancing the impact of major films with stable, non‑blockbuster offerings ( , , , ).

    Q4 underlined a diversified licensed IP portfolio that lessens the company’s reliance on blockbuster successes, showcasing a broader strategic approach ( ).

    Shift toward broader diversification and reduced blockbuster reliance while balancing growth drivers.

    Gross Margin Performance and Pricing Pressure

    In Q1, margin pressures were noted due to promotions and lower sales volume ( , ), while Q2 and Q3 showed gradual improvements with Q3 maintaining strong margins over 33% and effective pricing points ( , , ).

    Q4 reported a 70‐basis-point improvement in gross margin—despite challenges such as inventory obsolescence—while continuing to focus on affordable price points to manage cost pressures ( ).

    Gradual margin improvement with cautious pricing management amid rising cost pressures.

    Inventory Management and Supply Chain Efficiency

    From Q1 to Q3, the focus was on lean inventory practices (using a predominantly FOB model), reducing inventory levels, and investing in European hub‑and‑spoke systems to boost efficiency ( , , , ).

    Q4 maintained the disciplined approach by sustaining high FOB percentages and launching new distribution centers in the EMEA region, further enhancing supply chain efficiency ( , , ).

    Consistent, disciplined approach with incremental enhancements in European supply chain capabilities.

    Currency and Tariff Risk Management

    Not mentioned in Q1, Q2, or Q3 earnings calls.

    Q4 introduced proactive management of currency risk by leveraging a high percentage of USD‑denominated sales and reviewing tariff impacts to maintain cost competitiveness ( , ).

    Emerging topic with a proactive risk mitigation approach not previously discussed.

    Competitor Dynamics and Market Share Vulnerability

    Q3 provided detailed commentary on competitor challenges and opportunities to capture additional shelf space, while Q1 and Q2 were minimal on this issue ( , , , ).

    Q4 briefly touched on market share in the U.S. costumes segment and opportunities arising from competitors’ financial struggles, but overall, competitor analysis was less emphasized ( ).

    Decreased emphasis on competitor dynamics as focus shifts more inward to internal growth strategies.

    Expansion into New Markets and ABG Initiatives

    Throughout Q1–Q3, there was a consistent focus on international expansion (e.g., Europe and Latin America) and launching new product lines via ABG partnerships and private label initiatives ( , , , , , , , ).

    Q4 continued to stress expansion into new markets with diversified retail channels and bolstered private label initiatives, reinforcing the company’s commitment to global diversification ( , , ).

    Steady progression with reinforced commitment to global market diversification and strategic ABG collaborations.

    Liquidity and Capital Return Concerns

    Q1 discussions addressed liquidity challenges following a preferred share redemption ( , , ), while Q2 and Q3 showcased improvements with debt‑free status and strong liquidity positions as part of capital allocation deliberations ( , , , , ).

    In Q4, the company announced a quarterly dividend along with robust free cash flow generation and maintained liquidity, emphasizing a carefully balanced capital allocation strategy ( , , , ).

    Progressively strengthening liquidity with enhanced capital return policies and a clear focus on shareholder value.

    1. Capital Allocation and Acquisition Flexibility
      Q: Can you pursue acquisitions despite paying dividends?
      A: Yes, we have ample cash and free cash flow despite initiating a $1 per share annual dividend. We've thought deeply about capital allocation and are comfortable with our liquidity to acquire new IP or pursue opportunistic initiatives without handcuffing the company.

    2. Inventory Management and FOB Levels
      Q: Can FOB levels increase further amid tariffs and risks?
      A: Our inventory is methodically managed, currently at a high 75% FOB basis, likely unmatched in the industry. While bringing in some evergreen inventory, we're cautious with risks and manage inventory tightly to preserve cash for opportunities like the dividend and new initiatives.

    3. Impact of Movie Releases on Sales
      Q: How do movie releases affect sales flow?
      A: Historically, movies like Frozen, Moana, and Sonic 3 create initial excitement and long tails, especially when followed by streaming releases. Music-driven content enhances momentum, and we continue to benefit from strong IP with ongoing sales from properties like Encanto and Frozen.

    4. FX Exposure and Hedging
      Q: How exposed are you to currency fluctuations?
      A: Our FX exposure is minimal since over 75% of our sales are USD-denominated on an FOB basis, and our costs are negotiated in USD or Hong Kong dollars. This insulates us reasonably well from currency movements.

    5. Increased Retail Placement
      Q: Are you seeing more shelf space in physical retailers?
      A: Yes, we're gaining more placement globally due to our evergreen products and strong IP across diverse categories. Retailers consider our offerings lower risk, leading to increased shelf space not just in North America but also in regions like EMEA, Southeast Asia, and Latin America.

    6. Sales to Value-Focused Retailers
      Q: How are you approaching low price point retailers?
      A: We're expanding in value channels by offering three-tiered product lines tailored for mass retail, secondary accounts, and value trade. This strategy allows us to gain more distribution and shelf space based on value opportunities worldwide.

    7. E-commerce Sales Events Opportunities
      Q: What do frequent e-commerce sales events mean for you?
      A: Sales events like multiple Amazon Prime Days present opportunities. We plan for these events, offering special initiatives that capitalize on increased consumer spending during these periods, enhancing our sales not just in North America but globally.