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    Kennametal Inc (KMT)

    Q2 2024 Summary

    Published Feb 5, 2025, 6:38 PM UTC
    Initial Price$24.84September 30, 2023
    Final Price$25.79December 30, 2023
    Price Change$0.95
    % Change+3.82%
    • The company's modernization efforts have led to market share gains in key segments such as Aerospace and Electric Vehicles due to improved quality, delivery, and technological differentiation, positioning it for growth when market conditions improve.
    • Kennametal is accelerating its cost-saving initiatives, increasing restructuring savings to approximately $35 million by the end of fiscal year '24, which will enhance margins and provide cost tailwinds going into fiscal '25.
    • The company anticipates significant margin improvement in Q4 due to favorable price/raw material timing, particularly as tungsten costs shift from a headwind to a tailwind, and expects a volume uptick in Infrastructure during its strongest quarter, supporting profitability growth.
    • Despite initiatives to drive growth, Kennametal's volumes are still down about 15% from 2019 levels, indicating challenges in achieving meaningful market share gains.
    • The company anticipates only modest margin improvements, with Infrastructure margins expected to be at breakeven levels in the near term, suggesting ongoing profitability challenges in key segments.
    • Management acknowledges uncertainty about the timing and strength of market recovery, indicating that the current downturn may persist longer than expected, potentially hampering future performance. ,
    1. Cost Savings for FY '25
      Q: What are the expected cost tailwinds for fiscal '25?
      A: Patrick Watson noted they aim to reach a run rate of $35 million in cost savings by the end of the fiscal year. They achieved $5 million in savings in Q2 and expect further upticks in Q3 and Q4, totaling about $4 million more. These savings from the restructuring program will carry over into fiscal '25.

    2. Operating Margin Guidance
      Q: How will operating margins improve in Q4 versus Q3?
      A: The company expects a significant margin improvement in Q4 due to positive shifts in price/raw material timing, especially in Infrastructure. They anticipate exiting the year with an operating margin of around 9.5% in Infrastructure, compared to a modest improvement from Q2 to Q3. Additionally, Q4 is typically the strongest quarter for Infrastructure, with a notable volume uptick.

    3. Inventory and Working Capital Management
      Q: Why isn't weaker volume leading to lower working capital?
      A: Patrick Watson explained that while they have initiatives to reduce working capital and inventory, the elongated supply chain delays adjustments. The softening seen in December requires time to align inventory with expected demand, causing a temporary pause in inventory reduction. However, this doesn't deter their long-term objective to improve net working capital.

    4. Aerospace Growth Outlook
      Q: Is the lower growth in Aerospace temporary or structural?
      A: Christopher Rossi believes the risk is temporary due to supply chain constraints affecting OEM production levels, which are still below pre-pandemic levels. He views the current quality issues as short-term and is confident in their ability to gain market share by adding new customers, including Tier 1 to Tier 3 suppliers.

    5. Pricing Power and Competitiveness
      Q: How does your pricing compare to competitors?
      A: The company strives to price for value and believes it is competitively positioned. Over the past few years, competitors have made similar price increases. They focus on value rather than competing solely on price, especially in the Metal Cutting segment.

    6. Inventory Actions Amid Soft Markets
      Q: Will you reduce production due to softer markets?
      A: They plan to constrain production in the back half of the year, resulting in some under absorption. This is factored into their outlook, aiming to keep inventory levels flat as they move through the rest of the fiscal year.

    7. Order Trends in December and January
      Q: How did order patterns in January compare to December?
      A: The lower order pattern observed in December continued into January without much change. The decline leveled off sequentially, serving as an indicator for their reassessed second-half outlook.

    8. Market Share Gains Amid Flat Sales
      Q: How are you gaining share despite flat top-line growth?
      A: Christopher Rossi cited improvements due to simplification, modernization, and innovation efforts. They have gained share in Aerospace, growing faster than market changes. However, market headwinds can mask these gains, with volumes still down about 15% from 2019 levels.

    9. Capital Allocation Strategy
      Q: Why prioritize share buybacks over M&A or cost cuts?
      A: The company believes their capital allocation strategy is appropriate. They are pursuing a $100 million cost reduction project without being limited by cash. While looking for growth opportunities within their core competencies, they also focus on improving cash flow and support share repurchases as appropriate.

    10. Cyclical Outlook and Recovery Expectations
      Q: How does the current cycle compare to past downturns?
      A: The current mild downturn is different, with a gradual volume decline rather than a steep drop. The decline has been extended due to supply chain backlogs. They anticipate industrial production to improve in the second half of calendar year '24, potentially leading to a slow improvement or a snapback.

    11. Bridging FY '24 Guidance to FY '23
      Q: What's impacting the EPS guidance from '23 to '24?
      A: Factors include price realization offsetting inflation, raw material headwinds turning positive, and expected restructuring savings of $20 million to $25 million. Unfavorable volumes and some decrementals from managing production and inventory are also considered.

    12. Regional Demand Trends
      Q: Which regions are showing demand changes?
      A: Most of the slowdown was in the Americas. China did not recover as expected and is likely to struggle through the rest of the year. EMEA performed as anticipated but might take longer to improve.

    13. Future Demand Indicators
      Q: Do improving PMIs signal future demand pickup?
      A: The leveling of orders in January and some uptick in forecasts are encouraging. Industrial companies project slower first-half growth in calendar year '24 with expectations for increased business in the second half.

    14. Impact of Road Milling Price Sensitivity
      Q: Are you seeing negative pricing in Earthworks?
      A: In the U.S. road milling segment, they are holding prices but observing increased price sensitivity. This is driven by customers wanting to lock in projects amid budget concerns, affecting pricing dynamics more than expected.

    15. Inventory Destocking vs. Weak Demand
      Q: Is weak outlook due to destocking or end markets?
      A: Christopher Rossi believes it's more due to economic uncertainty rather than destocking. Distributors hadn't significantly restocked previously, so current reductions are not major destocking events. In Infrastructure, particularly oil and gas, inventories are being worked down with expectations of continued slow business in North America.