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Montrose Environmental Group, Inc. (MEG)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Record Q4 results with revenue of $189.1M (+14.1% YoY) and Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA of $27.2M (14.4% margin); GAAP net loss of $(28.2)M reflects a one-time $18.0M SARs cancellation plus higher taxes and interest .
  • 2025 guidance introduced: revenue $735–$785M and Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA $101–$108M; organic growth reiterated at 7–9% per year; ER revenue expected $50–$70M; operating cash flow conversion targeted at >50% .
  • Balance sheet and liquidity strengthened via new $500M credit facility (Term Loan $200M + Revolver $300M) maturing 2030; pro forma liquidity ~$296.7M at year-end; leverage ratio 2.1x .
  • Management actions aimed at transparency and earnings power: executive SARs canceled (removing ~$10M noncash expense annually in 2025–2026), and Board strengthened with addition of Vincent Colman; independent reviews found no material issues from short seller claims .
  • Catalysts flagged by management include cross-selling momentum (53% of revenue), 96% revenue retention, PFAS/methane tailwinds, and preferred stock redemption plan ($60M in April, $62M by year-end) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Delivered highest-ever quarterly revenue ($189.1M) and record Q4 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA ($27.2M; +55.8% YoY), with margin expansion to 14.4% .
  • Measurement & Analysis segment outperformed: Q4 revenue +21.3% to $65.5M and segment Adjusted EBITDA +88.7% to $18.3M; margin up ~1,000 bps to 27.9% on operating leverage and acquisitions .
  • Matrix Canada turnaround: exited Q4 at annualized mid- to high-teen EBITDA run rate, validating acquisition and integration playbook; management reiterated multi-segment operating leverage and innovation benefits .
  • Quote: “We remain confident and optimistic in our growth trajectory… focus on continued margin expansion and significantly improved operating cash flow” .

What Went Wrong

  • GAAP net loss widened to $(28.2)M in Q4 (LPS $(0.90)), driven by $18.0M one-time SARs cancellation and higher tax (+$7.3M) and interest (+$2.2M) expenses YoY; ER revenue declined by $8.4M and treatment technology revenue was lower .
  • Operating cash flow for FY24 decreased to $22.2M (from $56.0M), pressured by AR increases tied to Q4 revenue growth and delayed collections on a large U.S. government-related project (City of Tustin, ~$13.5M receivable outstanding at release) .
  • AP&R segment Q4 margin compressed to 15.6% (from 18.3%) due to ER revenue decline; treatment technology softness tempered Remediation & Reuse mix despite acquisition contribution .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$173.3 $178.7 $189.1
Net Loss Per Share (GAAP LPS) ($)$(0.39) $(0.39) $(0.90)
Diluted Adjusted EPS ($)$0.20 $0.41 $0.29
Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$23.3 $28.3 $27.2
Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)13.5% 15.8% 14.4%
Segment Revenues ($USD Millions)Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Assessment, Permitting & Response (AP&R)$53.4 $52.0 $50.8
Measurement & Analysis$54.8 $58.6 $65.5
Remediation & Reuse$65.1 $68.1 $72.8
Segment Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
AP&R$12.6 $11.2 $7.9
Measurement & Analysis$12.4 $13.4 $18.3
Remediation & Reuse$8.9 $11.7 $12.7
KPIs and Balance SheetValue
FY24 organic revenue growth8.3%
Cross-selling contribution to revenue (FY24)53%
Revenue retention (FY24)96%
Leverage ratio (12/31/24)2.1x
Pro forma liquidity (12/31/24)$296.7M (Cash $12.9M; Revolver availability $283.8M)
City of Tustin outstanding receivable (approx.)$13.5M

Note: No 8-K Item 2.02 filing was listed for Q4 2024; the company issued an earnings press release and held a call which are the primary sources above .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue ($USD Millions)FY 2024$690–$740 N/AMaintained (FY24)
Revenue ($USD Millions)FY 2025N/A$735–$785 Introduced, higher vs FY24 midpoint
Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)FY 2024$95–$100 N/AMaintained (FY24)
Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)FY 2025N/A$101–$108 Introduced; margin enhancement expected
Organic Revenue GrowthLong-term7–9% 7–9% reiterated Maintained
ER Revenue ($USD Millions)FY 2025N/A$50–$70 Introduced
Operating Cash Flow ConversionFY 2025N/A>50% Introduced
Balance Sheet Actions2025N/ARedeem Series A-2 pref: $60M in Apr, $62M by YE New detail

Notes: Guidance excludes future M&A contributions . Management provided quarterly cadence for 1H/2H 2025 similar to 2024 and indicated Q1 EBITDA ~1/3 of 1H EBITDA .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ2 2024 (Previous Mentions)Q3 2024 (Previous Mentions)Q4 2024 (Current Period)Trend
Organic growthStrong across segments; reaffirm 10–12% FY24 organic expectation ~7% YTD; reiterated strong organic drivers FY24 organic +8.3%; 7–9% reiterated for 2025 Stable to strong
Margin trajectoryConsolidated adj EBITDA margin +20 bps YoY; Matrix improving Margin up 190 bps YoY; back-half margin stronger 14.4% in Q4; midpoint FY25 implies steady, with accretion in R&R and corporate Gradual improvement
Emergency response (ER)Down YoY in Q2; full-year expected $50–$70M Lower in Q3; full-year $50–$70M Outlook steady at $50–$70M; no outsized projects currently Stable
PFAS momentumEPA rules (NPDWR; CERCLA) catalyzing demand; labs/testing growth Continued tailwinds; PFAS revenue growth across segments Narrative unchanged; broader contaminants drive ~85% of business Consistent
Methane regulation$850M EPA funding supports monitoring/reduction Stable thesis despite macro/political shifts State-level regs drive ~2/3 of methane revenue; 9 states cited Expanding state-led
Capital structureEquity raise; M&A pipeline robust Deemphasize near-term M&A; redeem preferred New $500M facility; full preferred redemption planned Optimization
Cash flow conversionBack-half ramp; target >50% long-term Improved in Q3; expected to increase in Q4 FY24 conversion below target due to timing; expect rebound in 2025 Recovering
International mix~20% of revenue ex-U.S.; strong tailwinds ~20%; Canada/Australia/Europe strong ~20% continues; mix to remain predominantly North America Stable

Management Commentary

  • “We are pleased to report another record year and record quarter… driven by continued demand for our uniquely integrated environmental expertise and technology” .
  • “The executive team voluntarily canceled all outstanding executive stock appreciation rights… This eliminates approximately $10 million in noncash expenses from our P&L annually in 2025 and 2026” .
  • “We are introducing guidance of $735 million to $785 million in revenue and $101 million to $108 million in consolidated adjusted EBITDA… reiterate 7% to 9% expected annual organic growth and 50% plus operating cash flow conversion” .
  • “Pro forma… approximately $300 million of liquidity… leverage ratio as of December 31, 2024, was 2.1x” .
  • “Independent third-party reports… did not identify any material issues… no amendment or restatement… needed” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Margin trajectory: At FY25 guidance midpoint, EBITDA margins are essentially flat YoY; management expects continued accretion, especially in Remediation & Reuse and corporate leverage over a multi-year view .
  • Cash flow conversion: FY24 below 50% due to timing (Q4 growth working capital and Tustin payments); collections subsequent to year-end; expect to rebound to >50% in 2025 .
  • Project timelines and macro: No changes in timelines seen; private sector activity normalizing post-election; federal revenue <3% reduces sensitivity to administration shifts .
  • Cross-selling traction: Deepening relationships with clients buying 2+ service lines; cross-selling now 53% of revenue, reinforcing organic growth outlook .
  • ER revenue and international mix: ER steady at $50–$70M; international ~20% to remain stable, with Australia/Europe demand influenced by water treatment .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global/Capital IQ Wall Street consensus estimates for Q4 2024 and FY 2025 were unavailable due to request limits at the time of analysis; therefore, we cannot quantify beats/misses vs consensus in this report. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Near-term estimate revisions may reflect: Q4 margin outperformance vs prior year, one-time SARs impact on GAAP EPS, and higher FY25 revenue/EBITDA guidance ranges .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Q4 underscores momentum: revenue and EBITDA records, with Measurement & Analysis driving margin mix; watch for sustained operating leverage in 2025 .
  • Balance sheet actions are a near-term catalyst: new $500M facility and full redemption of preferred stock should simplify capital structure and highlight underlying cash generation .
  • Organic growth durability: 7–9% reiterated, backed by 53% cross-selling and 96% revenue retention; diversified end-markets and state-level regulatory drivers reduce federal policy risk .
  • ER revenue normalization and treatment technology cadence matter for quarter-to-quarter variability; full-year ER expected $50–$70M; treatment demand building in Australia/EU and U.S. .
  • Matrix integration is a case study: margin uplift to mid/high teens run rate supports continued margin accretion in Remediation & Reuse .
  • Cash flow conversion expected to rebound (>50%) as Q4 AR unwinds (including Tustin); monitor collections trend through 1H 2025 .
  • With consensus unavailable, investors should update models using company guidance and segment mix signals; focus on Measurement & Analysis margin trajectory and FY25 cadence commentary .