Union Pacific - Earnings Call - Q1 2025
April 24, 2025
Executive Summary
- Q1 2025 results were broadly in line but slightly below consensus: revenue $6.027B (flat YoY), diluted EPS $2.70 (flat YoY), operating income $2.371B, operating ratio 60.7%; management highlighted a 90 bps OR headwind and ~$0.19 EPS headwind from fuel and leap year.
- Volumes rose 7% with robust core pricing; freight revenue excluding fuel surcharges grew 4%, while mix and lower fuel surcharge revenue offset gains, keeping total operating revenue flat.
- 2025 outlook affirmed: EPS growth consistent with achieving the 3-year CAGR target (high single to low double digit), pricing accretive to OR, capital plan $3.4B, share repurchases $4.0–$4.5B; CFO added other revenue run-rate guidance of ~$325M per quarter.
- Near-term narrative drivers: intermodal/tariff volatility, coal demand strength tied to natural gas prices, and mix normalization; management emphasized agility and strong service/productivity as catalysts for margin improvement as fuel/mix headwinds moderate.
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Record first-quarter operating performance metrics: freight car velocity 215 (+6%), workforce productivity 1,091 (+9%), and improved fuel consumption rate (1.107) supporting service reliability and operating leverage.
- Strong volume (+7%) and core pricing (highest absolute quarterly level in 10 years), with pricing dollars net of inflation accretive to OR; management reiterated a disciplined pricing mindset tied to service quality.
- Coal demand strength and agile operations enabled double-digit sequential coal set additions; business development wins (e.g., Hyundai Steel, Dow Poly 7) bolster medium-term volume pipeline.
Management quote: “Our strongest carload growth of the Class 1s… record first quarter operating performance… we are positioned to deliver.” – CEO Jim Vena.
What Went Wrong
- Mix and lower fuel surcharge revenue created a 250 bps drag on freight revenue despite robust pricing; other revenue declined 19% YoY due to lapping one-time items and weaker subsidiary/accessorial revenue.
- Intermodal average revenue per car fell 7% YoY amid increased international intermodal mix and lower fuel surcharges; segment mix diluted overall margins despite pricing strength.
- Macro/tariff uncertainty and potential back-half intermodal headwinds elevate risk to volume trajectory; management refrained from issuing precise 2025 EPS targets beyond the affirmed CAGR framework.
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Greetings. Welcome to Union Pacific's first quarter 2025 earnings call. At this time, I'll just enter in listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone today should require operator assistance, please press star zero from your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded, and the slides for today's presentation are available on Union Pacific's website. At this time, it is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mr. Jim Vena, Chief Executive Officer for Union Pacific. Mr. Vena, you may now begin.
Jim Vena (CEO)
Good morning, Rob, and thank you. Good morning, and thank you for joining us today to discuss Union Pacific's first quarter results. I'm joined in Omaha by our Chief Financial Officer, Jennifer Hamann, our Executive Vice President of Marketing and Sales, Kenny Rocker, and our Executive Vice President of Operations, Eric Gehringer. As you'll hear from the team, we had a solid start to the year. Our reported operating ratio was 60.7, flat compared to last year, even with a 90 basis point headwind from fuel and leap year. We delivered record first quarter operating performance. Further, we had the strongest carload growth of the class ones as we worked closely with our customers to meet their needs in an uncertain environment. Now, let's discuss first quarter results starting on slide three.
This morning, Union Pacific reported 2025 first quarter earnings per share of $2.70, which reflects a $0.19 or 7% headwind from fuel and leap year. Our reported 2025 first quarter net income of $1.6 billion was essentially flat versus last year. Reported first quarter 2025 operating income was flat, as 7% volume growth, robust core pricing gains, and strong productivity were offset by business mix, fuel, and the leap year. Freight revenue grew 1% versus last year, and if you exclude the impact from fuel surcharge, freight revenue increased 4%, both first quarter records. Looking to the rest of 2025, we will continue to execute our strategy that emphasizes safety, service, and operational excellence. Building on the strong foundation with our record first quarter operating performance, we are positioned to deliver.I'll let the team walk you through the quarter in more detail and then come back and wrap it up before we go to Q&A. With that, Jennifer, first quarter financials.
Jennifer Hamann (CFO)
All right. Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin with a walkdown of our first quarter income statement on slide five. Our operating revenue of $6 billion matched last year's level, even with lower quarterly fuel surcharge revenue, a reduction in other revenue, and the leap year comparison. Freight revenue of $5.7 billion increased 1% despite the roughly $70 million impact of having one less day in the quarter. Digging into the freight revenue drivers further, our strong volume growth in the quarter added 650 basis points to freight revenue. Fuel surcharge revenue of $565 million declined $100 million as the impact of lower year-over-year fuel prices more than offset the higher volume, reducing freight revenue 275 basis points. Core pricing was very strong and reached the highest quarterly level in the past 10 years. Further, pricing dollars net of inflation were accretive to our operating ratio.
Despite these robust results, quarterly business mix combined with price for a 250 basis point drag on freight revenue. In addition to volume growth in our lower average revenue per car business lines, such as intermodal and coal, we had the additional dynamic of lower volumes in our higher businesses like petroleum, soda ash, and finished vehicles. Wrapping up the top line, other revenue declined 19% to $336 million. Included in the year-over-year change are several items, including some that we have discussed previously, such as last year's intermodal equipment sale and the metro transfer. Quarterly results were also challenged by reduced auto parts shipments at a subsidiary and lower assessed oil revenue. Finally, you'll recall that first quarter 2024 included a one-time favorable contract settlement of $25 million.
Switching to expenses, operating expense of $3.7 billion equaled last year as solid productivity gains and lower fuel costs offset volume-related costs, inflation, and depreciation. Digging deeper into a few of the expense lines, compensation and benefits expense improved 1% versus last year as reduced workforce levels were partially offset by wage inflation. Record quarterly workforce productivity enabled us to limit first quarter costs per employee to only a 2% increase. First quarter fuel expense declined 8% on an 11% decrease in fuel prices from $2.81 to $2.51 per gallon. We also improved our fuel consumption rate 1% during the quarter as we continue to leverage optimization tools such as energy management systems on our locomotive fleet, enhancing train handling while reducing consumption.
Purchase services and materials expense increased 3% versus last year, driven by inflation, volume-related costs, and a favorable 2024 item, partially offset by lower costs at a subsidiary. Equipment and other rents increased 12%, driven by increased car hire for automotive racks, inflation, and demand in intermodal and other traffic that utilizes foreign freight cars. Finally, other expense increased 1% as higher costs associated with destroyed equipment were partially offset by lower bad debt expense and environmental remediation costs. First quarter operating income of $2.4 billion was consistent with last year. Below the line, interest expense declined 1% on lower average debt levels, partially offset by a slightly higher effective interest rate. First quarter 2025 net income totaled $1.6 billion, and earnings per share came in at $2.70, both essentially flat versus 2024 despite the $0.19 EPS impact from fuel and leap year.
Similarly, fuel and leap year had a 90 basis point unfavorable impact on our reported quarterly operating ratio of 60.7%. All in, the UP team produced a good quarterly performance and start to 2025. Before I go on, a couple of housekeeping items I want to mention. First is that we now estimate our other revenue will total about $325 million per quarter, reflecting our expectations for lower assessed oil and subsidiary revenue. A reminder that in the second quarter of 2024, our results included a $46 million benefit in other expense from the sale of Intermodal Equipment, and we have now lapped that transaction. Turning to shareholder returns in the balance sheet on slide six, first quarter cash from operations totaled $2.2 billion, up 4% versus last year. In February, we initiated an accelerated share repurchase program for $1.5 billion.
Through the quarter, we made open market purchases of an additional $220 million as we more recently took advantage of very attractive share prices. That cash return plus our industry-leading dividend payout enabled us to return $2.5 billion to our shareholders in the first quarter. In the quarter, our net debt increased $1.7 billion as we issued $2 billion of long-term debt and paid maturities totaling $350 million. This resulted in our adjusted debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.8 times at the end of the quarter as we continue to be A-rated by our three credit rating agencies. Turning to the remainder of 2025 on slide seven, as we look to the next three quarters, it is likely going to be a bumpy ride. In preparation, we've worked through scenario planning and will remain agile.
Importantly, we will continue executing our strategy and are maintaining the three-year targets set at our investor day last September. In particular, 2025 EPS growth will be consistent with attaining our three-year EPS CAGR view of high single to low double-digit growth. Similarly, our views on accretive pricing, industry-leading operating ratio, and ROIC, as well as capital deployment plans, still hold. Obviously, there is uncertainty in the marketplace, but the year is off to a good start, and we are delivering value for our shareholders. In fact, April volumes and service metrics were quite strong heading into the Easter weekend. Our focus on safety, service, and operational excellence prepares us for whatever lies ahead, and we are confident in our ability to perform. I'll now turn it over to Kenny to provide you an update on the business environment.
Kenny Rocker (EVP of Marketing and Sales)
Thank you, Jennifer, and good morning. Freight revenues totaled $5.7 billion for the quarter, which was up 4% excluding fuel surcharges due to increased volume. Despite unfavorable mix, we saw strong core pricing gains, which, as Jennifer mentioned, was the highest absolute quarterly level over the past 10 years. This is a testament to our deliberate focus on maximizing price. Let's jump right in and talk about the key drivers for each of these business groups. Starting with our bulk segment, revenue for the quarter was up 1% compared to last year on a 2% increase in volume and a 1% decrease in average revenue per car as business mix and lower fuel surcharge revenue was more than offset by core pricing gains and volume. Coal saw strong customer demand due to favorable natural gas pricing.
Grain products volume was up for the quarter, driven by increased demand for feed stocks. Locating new customers on our railroad ensures long-term ratable demand, and the newest facilities located in Nebraska and Kansas are now running at full capacity. Lastly, food and beverage volume declined in the quarter, primarily driven by consumer preference. Turning to industrial, revenue was down 1% for the quarter on a 1% decrease in volume. Strong core pricing gains were offset by business mix, lower fuel surcharges, and volume. Petroleum shipments decreased during the quarter due to business shifts, while soda ash was impacted by weaker global demand. This was partially offset by increased rock shipments, driven by strong customer demand coupled with favorable weather conditions compared to last year.
Premium revenue for the quarter was up 5% on a 13% increase in volume and a 7% decrease in average revenue per car, reflecting the mixed impact of increased intermodal shipments and lower fuel surcharges. Intermodal volumes remained strong based on international West Coast import demand. Additional positive domestic intermodal growth was further supported by business development efforts. Automotive volumes experienced a decline due to reduced OEM production. Turning to slide 10, here is our 2025 outlook as we see it today for the key markets we serve. We have had a solid start to the second quarter with AAR car loadings currently up just over 7% compared to last year. Now, starting with bulk, continued challenges for food and beverage are expected primarily based on weakness in the U.S. beer market. We anticipate coal volumes to remain strong in the near term.
However, there is always volatility in natural gas prices, so we'll remain agile as we move into the second half of the year. Lastly, we expect grain exports into Mexico to remain strong. For grain products, our intense focus on business development results is expected to mitigate market uncertainties in renewable fuels and associated feed stocks. Moving to industrial, we anticipate petroleum volume to remain challenged due to business shifts and our commitment to balance the volume at the right margin. Our industrial chemicals and plastics markets will remain favorable based on customer plant expansion and our ability to win incremental volume in the marketplace. For example, we are excited to support Dow's expansion later this year at their Poly 7 facility in Freeport, Texas.
Wrapping up with premium, while tariff uncertainty remains a concern for automotive, we are closely aligned with our customers, providing guidance and solutions every step of the way. On the intermodal side, we anticipate a slowdown in international intermodal as we move through the second quarter. We expect decreased volume in the second half of the year due to the higher comparisons as customers diversify back to East Coast and Canadian ports. However, we remain optimistic about growth in domestic intermodal driven by our over-the-road conversions because of our strong service product and multiple channels to win. We are keeping a watchful eye on the market and potential tariff changes that could further impact overall consumer spending. While we navigate the trade policies and face difficult comparisons in the latter half of the year, our team is proactively taking action and hustling to overcome these obstacles.
Specifically, earlier this month, we began moving volumes with Lower Colorado River Authority and will continue to ramp up throughout the month. The team's focus on business development is yielding positive results as we see incremental volume from new and expanding facilities across multiple segments like grain products and petrochemicals. In fact, we actively maintain an open pipeline of 200 construction projects, so business development through growth and expansion is always a priority. The team is also setting the stage for future growth. Hyundai Steel Corporation recently joined the Union Pacific Rail Network, announcing their first-ever U.S. steel mill in Louisiana.
Construction will not be complete for a few years, but this is a positive result of our current business development efforts. With our strong service product, I am confident that we will continue to win new business and take trucks off the road. As I stated last quarter, our commercial team is crystal clear on acceptable pricing levels based on the service we've sold, which is driving strong core pricing gains. I'm proud of the team's ability to deliver a 4% increase in freight revenue excluding fuel. The team is focused, and I'm very comfortable with our current position. With that, I'll turn it over to Eric to review our operational performance.
Eric Gehringer (EVP of Operations)
Thank you, Kenny, and good morning. Moving to slide 12. In the first quarter, we continue to see meaningful improvements across nearly all of our metrics. This is a testament to our strategy and our steadfast focus on providing industry-leading safety, service, and operational excellence. Starting with safety, which is the foundation of everything we do, both personal injury and derailment rates continue to improve versus their three-year rolling average. In fact, we achieved a first-quarter personal injury rate that tied a quarterly record dating back to 2016. Our number one priority remains returning all employees home safely each and every day. Freight car velocity, the best measure of fluidity on the railroad, improved 6% to 215 miles per day, a first-quarter record. The primary driver was further reductions in terminal dwell, which improved 6% year-over-year and also set a new first-quarter record.
We are turning our customers' assets faster, a win-win, as we support their growth initiatives while simultaneously generating future growth capacity within our terminals. On the service front, manifest SPI was 93%, a six-point improvement, while intermodal SPI at 94% was essentially flat. Our buffer of resources, coupled with improved fluidity I mentioned earlier, continues to translate into a very high level of service for our customers. Customers are seeing the benefit, rewarding Union Pacific with new business. As Kenny mentioned, we have successfully onboarded our new coal customer while also adding incremental growth coal sets beyond what we had originally planned coming into the year. On the intermodal front, we continue to handle historically high international intermodal volumes, all while delivering a service we sold our customers. Now let's review our key efficiency metrics on slide 13.
Throughout the quarter, the team was effective in our approach to asset management, leveraging our buffer of resources to inject assets only as we needed them. That approach paid off, as you see improved efficiency metrics across the board. Locomotive productivity improved 1% compared to first quarter 2024. Notably, our active locomotive fleet only increased 3% against the backdrop of a 7% volume growth and normal winter weather challenges we historically experienced this time of the year. While the increased fluidity of our network enabled the performance, we also see the continued benefits from our work on locomotive dwell. Workforce productivity, which includes all employees, improved 9%. More specifically, our active train, engine, and yard workforce decreased 1%, demonstrating excellent operating leverage against the 7% volume growth. We will continue to support our training pipeline and provide the capacity buffer necessary to navigate an ever-changing environment.
Train length in the quarter grew 2% compared to first quarter 2024. Further, we delivered improved train length sequentially despite lower intermodal volumes, which generally provide greater density to drive gains in train length. We will continue to leverage proprietary technologies like Precision Train Builder to safely grow train length while generating mainline capacity for current and future growth. Wrapping up, I'm very proud of the team and the results we delivered. We efficiently leveraged our resources to handle volume growth in a service-focused manner. As we progress throughout the year, we will remain agile and in constant communication with our customers as they analyze their supply chain options. I'm very confident in our ability to control what we can control, whether it be our service product, buffer of resources, asset utilization, etc. We are prepared, and as we move forward, I'm certain you will see our resiliency on display. Jim?
Jim Vena (CEO)
Just caught me having a sip of coffee. You were way too fast closing that off, Eric. I thought you still had a couple of lines. Listen, thank you very much. Why don't we turn to slide 15? Before we get to your questions, I'd like to quickly summarize what you've heard from our team. First, as you heard from Jennifer and Kenny, there are still a lot of unknowns related to volumes and the economy. What I do know is that we are driving efficiency throughout our network and pricing for the strong value we provide our customers. Eric walked you through the records we're setting across safety, service, and operational excellence. The network is fluid, and we are meeting the demands of all our customers. We are in a good position, and we will be agile and responsive as we move forward.
We remain committed to the long-term guidance that we laid out at our investor day last September, and we are confident we will be the industry leader as we drive value for our shareholders. We have the right strategy, right team, and the right focus on the fundamentals, all supporting our ability to unlock the great value of the UP franchise. With that, we're now ready to take your questions. Rob?
Operator (participant)
Thank you, Mr. Vena. We will now be conducting our question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question at this time, please press Star one on your telephone keypad, and a confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press Star two if you would like to withdraw your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the Star keys. Due to the number of analysts joining us on the call today, we are limiting everyone to one question to accommodate as many participants as possible. Thank you. Our first question will be coming from the line of Chris Wetherbee with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question.
Jim Vena (CEO)
Good morning.
Chris Wetherbee (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)
Hey, hey. Thanks. Good morning, guys. Morning. I guess I wanted to talk a little bit about 2025 guidance. Obviously, uncertainty is building here with concerns about maybe some slowing activity, particularly on the West Coast. You guys have talked about sort of growth this year consistent with the long-term targets. I think that can kind of take a couple of different meanings. I was kind of curious if you wanted to maybe put a little bit of a finer point, kind of think about what the potential outcomes could be, either from an earnings perspective, maybe from an operating ratio perspective. Just wanted to see if you can put some framework around what you think 2025 might look like, just given the uncertainty that's out there.
Jim Vena (CEO)
Chris, that's a great question and a great way to start off. At this point, there's a lot of things: tariffs, economy, what the consumer does, what interest rates are, what's going to happen with interest rates, what's going to happen with the tax package or the packages that the Congress is looking at doing. All those things are up in the air. What we look at at this point in time, we're very comfortable that we're standing by our guidance that we provided last year. Is it a little muddier at this point than it was when we gave it last year? Absolutely. At this point, what we're seeing, and that's why Jennifer mentioned, our car loads are pretty strong so far in April. The mix is pretty strong.
We like what we see, and we just don't want to get, because everything is so fluid, we'd be remiss to start talking about what's going to happen as we move through the rest of the year. For us, though, what we look at, and it's very key, foundationally, fundamentally, we have a railroad that's operating, and we're able to be able to take a look at how we spend money on the railroad and what we're doing in a very efficient manner. Eric took you through the details of how we're doing and how we're looking at things. I think we've shown over the last few quarters, and especially the first quarter, what's possible with this railroad. If you come in with a fundamental railroad that's operating in a very good manner, what happens is you can build from that.
The reaction is what happens with all these items that I've, these vectors that I've talked about coming in at us. At the end of the day, I'm comfortable. If we need to react, we will react. At this point, I think it's so fluid. I woke up this morning to see when I woke up, when I normally do, went to bed last night at midnight after watching that bad hockey game that my team lost real bad, and woke up this morning to see what the news was the latest. At this point, it's a day-to-day, week-to-week reaction of what's happening out in the marketplace. That's why, Chris, we're sticking to our three-year guidance. We think if everything comes to a normal, much more normal situation, I think we will deliver that, and we're very comfortable that we have the opportunity to do that. Jennifer, anything you want to add?
Jennifer Hamann (CFO)
No, I mean, I think you hit all the right points, Jim. We are looking at it in a number of different ways, both in terms of what we think is going to happen on the demand side. Obviously, Eric and his team have to be prepared in terms of if demand does fall, what are the levers that we can pull. When we look at that in totality, we feel comfortable that we've got the right strategy. We're well-positioned. Obviously, we want to take advantage of car loads when they're there. I think we're doing a really good job of that today.
Jim Vena (CEO)
Thank you very much, Jim.
Chris Wetherbee (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)
Appreciate it. Thank you. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from the line of Tom Wadewitz with UBS. Please proceed with your question.
Jim Vena (CEO)
Good morning.
Tom Wadewitz (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Yeah, good morning. Yeah, good morning. I guess this is a question along the same theme, which you'll probably get even more after mine. When we think about your framework for this year and kind of volumes are strong in April, but there are a number of segments that might be pre-shipping or fall off. I guess if you say in that kind of three-year guide and call it high single digits, earnings growth at the low end, is there a revenue growth or a volume growth assumption that you say, "Hey, we kind of need to be in this range in order to achieve that?" I guess I don't know if that's a low single digits revenue growth. I guess if just from a year-over-year perspective, if you're flat in earnings in one Q, but you do full year high single digits, what's the lever that accelerates? Is it just easier comps? Is it kind of volume accelerates? Just, I guess, a couple more things of how we understand the frame. Thank you.
Jim Vena (CEO)
Tom, you know what? It's an interesting question. As you know, there's a lot of puts and takes. If you take a look at our first quarter, the headline, you would say it was a flat year. If you look at it underneath with the impact of fuel and what we had, we had a pretty good first quarter, especially for a first quarter for Union Pacific that is one of our highest expense side with a lot of things that come in. Fundamentally, we're good.
We like the business mix that we have. We like the way the quarter has started off. I am absolutely not sure what's going to happen. If anybody tells you at any point that they know what's going to happen over the next few weeks, let alone for the rest of the year completely, I think we'd be remiss to start changing our guidance. The easy thing would have been to come in this morning and just say, "Listen, there's so much noise. We're pulling our guidance." We have a job to do, and our job is to react to whatever's thrown at us. At Union Pacific, we've been doing that for a long time. I do have nobody sees it, but I do have a few gray hairs. I've been around for a while, and I've seen the ups and downs.
I think I'd never bet against the United States economy or the United States in general. At the end of the day, I think we end up in a good place, whether that's in a few weeks or whether that's in six months. Fundamentally, if we can operate the way we are, Kenny and the team are building long-term partnerships with customers, and we have the franchise that we have that handles so many products that Americans use every day. I'm very comfortable, Tom, and we are not going to come off of how we do it. How do we deliver that high single digit, low double digit? Absolutely. It's how we price, volume, how efficient we are, everything that's in the mix that we can control. I think we've shown over the last few quarters whether we're doing a good job or not. I rate the team because I'm a hard marker. I'm like Walter a little bit. We're average, and I think there's more left for us to do. I'm very comfortable of where we are right now.
Tom Wadewitz (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
I guess any thoughts on threshold revenue growth or volumes to get there or not?
Jim Vena (CEO)
Tom, first few weeks in April, we're saying, "Listen, we see a little bit of impact with everything that's going on." At the end of the day, it's been pretty strong for us. Our industrial, our bulk, even the intermodal is pretty strong. I like to see the bulk and the industrial where it is because, as you know, it's a different margin business. I really can't tell you. Tom, maybe you have a better idea. Fill me in if you can because I can't tell what's going to happen here in the next couple of weeks. I think at the end of it, we'll see a reasoable position for the United States of America when it comes and will not impact. The worst thing that can happen is it starts to impact what consumers are doing and their thought process and how they spend money. We have not seen that at this point, that would be a worry. At this point, we have not seen it. Thanks, Tom.
Tom Wadewitz (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Thanks for the time.
Operator (participant)
Our next question is from the line of Fadi Chamoun with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
Fadi Chamoun (Equity Research Analyst)
Yes. Good morning.
Jim Vena (CEO)
Morning, Fadi.
Fadi Chamoun (Equity Research Analyst)
I have a quick question. Yeah, good morning, Jim. A quick question on the pricing. You mentioned the strongest in 10 years for Q1. How much of that is reflecting maybe the lagged impact from the inflation we saw in the last couple of years? How much is driven by the better service performance of the network in the last year? If you can give some color about kind of what's underlying the strong pricing and how sustainable that is.
Jennifer Hamann (CFO)
Yeah, Fadi, thanks for that question. I'll start it off and then kick it over to Kenny. I do think it's important to recall back at our investor day where we laid out our vision that we were going to have a creative pricing going forward. In that, we talked about the fact that we had some catch-up to do, that we had the opportunity to touch more of our long-term contracts, and that that was part of what gave us the confidence that we were able to stand before you all in September and say that the pricing was going to be a creative. Certainly, Eric's service product helps support that when the team's going in and having those conversations. This is consistent with what we were seeing and what we were expecting to see back in September. We just believe there's more of that coming forward. That is where you're seeing that confidence.
Kenny Rocker (EVP of Marketing and Sales)
Yeah. You look at it as Jennifer mentioned last year, we were price accretive. We're starting off price accretive today. It is really the mindset that we have as a commercial team. Eric and his team are providing us with a strong service product. We also have quite a few investments that we're making into the network. That gives us all the ability to really price to the service that we're sold. We're pretty dogged on that. That is what you're seeing. You're seeing the results of that play out.
Fadi Chamoun (Equity Research Analyst)
Thank you.
Jim Vena (CEO)
Thanks, Fadi.
Operator (participant)
Next question is from the line of Brandon Oglenski with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.
Brandon Oglenski (Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. Kenny, I know everything's volatile right now, but obviously, we have pretty sizable tariffs on Chinese goods here. I mean, I think our Treasury Secretary is calling it a de facto embargo on trade with China. I mean, we can see that there are going to be some higher blank sailings into LA Long Beach, which has been a pretty big source of volume for you guys. I guess maybe a two-part question. A, have you heard from your international customers or any of your customers about plans for dealing with these very large tariffs? And then maybe just quickly for Eric, how would you deal with potentially a big air pocket in demand on certain parts of your network, even if you're seeing growth domestically? Thank you.
Kenny Rocker (EVP of Marketing and Sales)
Yeah, Brandon, thanks for the question. First of all, it starts with staying close to the customers. I've been talking to customers this week. It's staying close with Eric. It's all about the agility. We've shown and proved that in the quarter, we were able to handle that business. You're asking a specific question about China. Yeah, we do see, and Jim used the word normal patterns. We expect, as we move throughout the quarter, to see a little bit more softness, and then we have some tougher comps. The best thing we can do during that time is just have all the products that we have with the ramp, the matchback, and the service product and stay close to our customers because we've been seeing these supply chain patterns change at the drop of a hat.
Eric Gehringer (EVP of Operations)
Brandon, related to how we continue to maintain volume variable plus, for us, we're very proud to be able to do that. When we think about what are we physically doing, what does it look like on the railroad, it's really your five critical resources with emphasis mostly on three of them. You adjust the amount of locomotives you have, the amount of cars you have, and you adjust the amount of crews that you have. Now, you do that inside of our transportation plan, which over the last year, we've got a big plus that we've added to that with a tool that we have that's called adaptive planning. That's taken our playbooks and made us even faster at how we're able to make those decisions. What used to take multiple days or weeks, now we can do in a matter of hours or even up to maybe at most a couple of days. We have the ability to adjust. You've seen us demonstrate that many times over our history, and that's exactly what we'll do.
Brandon Oglenski (Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Our next question is from the line of Scott Group with Wolfe Research. Please proceed with your question.
Jim Vena (CEO)
Morning, Scott.
Scott Group (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)
Hey, thanks. Good morning, guys. If I take a step back and we have the best pricing in 10 years and volumes up 7% and headcounts down 3%, I would have thought it could have been the perfect storm of record kind of margin improvement when you just think about those three things. Margins are flat. Is this just mix and fuel? What does this look like going forward? Maybe the volume slows, but maybe now the mix turns positive. Hopefully, the fuel headwind is not the same magnitude. Should we start to see a lot more margin improvement just given this price as we get through maybe some of this mix headwind?
Jim Vena (CEO)
You know, an interesting way to look at it is if we have, you're saying if we have less revenue, but the mix is better, we end up with better margins. I look at it a little bit different. Yeah, that's a win, but I'd rather have more revenue and drive to make sure that the margin's in the right place. We like all the business that we have. The reason we are Union Pacific is because of the top 100 customers that we have that we move everything that people use every day in either the manufacturing or at the end. Scott, yeah, you could say that if intermodal came down because of what's happening at the West Coast or the imports, that would help us margin-wise. For me, I'd rather remember we don't give all our specifics on purpose. If somebody would tell me that I could be a 55 operating ratio railroad and our revenue went down by X, I would rather be a 57 operating ratio railroad with our revenue going up by X. That is the way I look at it. Jennifer, anything else you want to add?
Jennifer Hamann (CFO)
Yeah. I just want to, on the mix part, I mean, obviously, mix price together and mix with record price together being down 250 basis points, that gives you an indication of the impact of mix to the quarter. We also gave you what the impact was to the OR and EPS from fuel. To your point, as we look ahead, mix should moderate. I do not know when it will turn positive, but probably should turn positive as we move into the back half of the year. We will see how second quarter plays out. As Jim talked earlier, there is just a lot of wild cards on how that is going to play, but should improve nevertheless. You look at fuel, we see that as something that moderates through the year as well. When we get to the end of the year, if fuel prices stay kind of where they're at, I think you look back and you say fuel was kind of a non-event for us overall for the year. I think you're looking at it right. The only thing I would say is don't underestimate the mix impact to our margins in the first quarter.
Jim Vena (CEO)
Thanks, Scott.
Operator (participant)
The next question is from the line of Ken Hoexter with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.
Jim Vena (CEO)
Morning, Ken.
Ken Hoexter (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Hey, great. Good morning. Jen, maybe just taking that to another step, and I know you don't give specific guidance, but if I think about maybe just historical averages, right, first quarter to second quarter, maybe you could talk about what kind of level improvement you've historically seen. I think it's been about 100 basis points. I just want to understand just to get to the EPS target that you're talking about, do we have to see outsized seasonal performance given, I don't know, whether it's the leap day and fuel impact you were talking about? Maybe I'll start with that. Thanks.
Jim Vena (CEO)
Ken, I love the question. You know that you asked me because you thought for sure Jennifer would say, "I don't give any guidance." Yes, we're historically, we're going to historically see that improvement at this point. We see it already with three weeks in the books that we look like we'll have that historical change that happens normally first quarter to second quarter and maybe even a little bit better because of how well we're operating. Still too early in the quarter to say anything specific about what it looks like. Jennifer?
Jennifer Hamann (CFO)
Yeah. No, I mean, the first quarter is where you typically have your worst margins for the year. Then it typically improves second and third quarter because you've got kind of your beginning of the year costs out of the way. You see your volume improve, and you're away from the winter weather. You have that kind of mud behind you, if you will, in the first quarter that helps propel you in the second and third quarter as you see volume growth. Obviously, as we're talking today, volume is going to be the wild card, but we're not going to use that as an excuse to not improve. In fact, we believe we will improve. That is the task that the team has, and we're absolutely committed to it.
Ken Hoexter (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Wonderful. Jim, you mentioned Team Lost Bad. Was that the Oilers-Canadians, or are you really an Ottawa fan?
Jim Vena (CEO)
I'm an Edmonton Oilers fan. That was ugly. My dad's a Montreal Canadiens fan. He didn't like that. There wasn't a lot of positive. I went to bed last night after midnight going, "What the heck is this?" I normally go to bed at midnight anyways, and I had to laugh. I know this is a serious call, not a call about the NHL or NBA, but I think Kenny goes to bed at 9:00 P.M., and Eric goes at 8:30 P.M. When I told him I was staying up till midnight to watch the game like I normally do, I think that just threw them right off. Jennifer said that's Vena. He only needs five hours' sleep, so he's good. Rough day, Ken. Rough day. Let me tell you.
Ken Hoexter (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Sorry to divert. Thank you, guys.
Jim Vena (CEO)
Yeah.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Brian Ossenbeck with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.
Jim Vena (CEO)
Morning, Brian.
Brian Ossenbeck (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)
Hey, good morning. Thanks. I'll get us back on track with something much more boring than this question, but yeah, I don't know if he appreciates it. Let me ask it first. Maybe for Kenny, just the I know there's a lot of volatility with policies, but it does seem like there will be something on the Section 301 related to China shipbuilding. Now they're talking about removing the harbor maintenance tax benefit from the Canadian ports. Wanted to see what your initial thoughts are on that since we've been through two iterations of that with the U.S. TR. In the past trade war, we saw a big impact in general for the U.S. export grain, particularly soybeans. Wanted to see if that's something that we should also be considering here. Thanks.
Kenny Rocker (EVP of Marketing and Sales)
Yeah. Thanks for that, Brian. First of all, we've talked with quite a few customers, and I'll tell you that they need a little bit more clarity and certainty. Candidly, we've seen the tariffs come on. We've seen them come off. We need a little bit more certainty. They need a little bit more certainty before they are going to commit to making any significant changes in ports or traffic flows. I'd be remiss to say our commercial team is pretty intense or having pretty intense conversations about coming to the U.S., especially with our network that we have, especially with the service. That's a focus for us. Bottom line, we got to make sure that these stick.
The second part of your question on the grain piece, when you look back the first time Trump was in, we did see some of the traffic flows change, and we're seeing that as a positive today. Eric and the team have really done a great job of moving grain to areas like the Gulf and areas like Mexico. Yeah, the traffic flows may change, but we still are able to have an agile network. The last part of that is just what I'll call fundamental growth in terms of the fuel side. The biofuels, the renewable fuels, we still see that as a positive. We've been very aggressive, hyper-aggressive about landing new customers, landing new origins, landing new destinations. We still think that that's a good emerging market that's going to be in place. Thank you very much, Brian.
Brian Ossenbeck (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)
Thank you, Kenny.
Operator (participant)
Next question is from the line of Jonathan Chappell with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.
Jim Vena (CEO)
Morning, Jonathan.
Jonathan Chappell (Senior Managing Director)
Good morning, Jim. Eric, question for you. I covered it a little bit, but I do not think we know exactly what the outcome is going to be, but I think with the blank sailings and some of the other comments around exports leaving China and what is going to come to the West Coast, Kenny already mentioned international intermodal probably has some challenges in the back half of the year, but domestic seems to be set up pretty well. How do you kind of manage resources for that volatility kind of within the intermodal segment? Do you keep a level of resiliency in case things are kind of short-lived and just focus on service and making sure you are prepared for the upturn, or do you have to become a little bit more, I guess, drastic with some of the resource decisions that you make in the short term?
Eric Gehringer (EVP of Operations)
That's a great question, Jonathan, and a timely one. Let's make sure we're really clear about something. We always keep our buffer of resources. We always maintain the railcars, the locomotives, and the crews that we need to operate to deliver the service product that we sold our customers. Now, let's talk a little bit more lower in the weeds about how we do that on the railroad. We can just start with really practical things, but they're really important things. With the increase in international intermodal, we've obviously made changes to our transportation plan. Now, you might think that that's just where we just add trains to the system. That's not what we do. We first look at how do we fill any latent capacity we have on existing trains.
We look to say, how do we combo certain trains to be able to generate more capacity? As a last resort, we add new symbols, that being new trains that we run. When you're thinking about any type of reduction that may occur, you just work that in reverse. You first look at, were there any trains that we added to the entire system that the volume just doesn't support running anymore? From there, you look and say, can I still combo with other trains so that we can continue to be productive and be volume variable plus? It's literally how we do it every single month when we look through our transportation plan and make adjustments to it. It's sounding like I'm oversimplifying. It's a complex thing, and that's why we use so much technology to inform our decision-making so that we can still deliver our service product, but do it in the most efficient manner. Thank you very much.
Jonathan Chappell (Senior Managing Director)
Great. Very insightful. Thanks, Eric.
Operator (participant)
The next question is from the line of Stephanie Moore with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.
Jim Vena (CEO)
Morning, Stephanie.
Joe Hafling (VP and Equity Research Analyst)
Hi, good morning, everyone. This is Joe Hafling on for Stephanie. Eric, thanks for walking through that. That was very helpful, and I think helped answer a lot of those questions. I guess I maybe wanted to talk about something a little bit different. Under the surface, all the productivity initiatives you guys have been embarking on, if we think about 2025, what major projects do you guys have kind of under your barrel that you're working on that we should be looking forward to and maybe just an obligatory how we should think about headcount throughout the year? Thanks.
Eric Gehringer (EVP of Operations)
Sure. Taking on your productivity question first, as we think about projects, right, you kind of naturally want to trend towards talking about technology. Let's never forget, though, the biggest driver of our productivity is the fundamentals and how we operate this railroad day in and day out. You saw that in the first quarter, right? 7% volume handled, that being 7% higher volume handled, and our operating expenses were actually down 2% excluding fuel. You saw that in the record train length, record workforce productivity, etc. You always want to stay most focused on your fundamentals. Now, from a project/initiative place, now you really are getting into the technology. That's technology, as Jennifer mentioned, on the fuel conservation side with energy management system. It's how we think about mobile NX inside of our terminals as we work to automate portions of the terminals.
It's even the work that our engineering team is doing on how do you automate the distribution of materials. In total, we have dozens and dozens of these initiatives in different phases. We are in a great position to continue to build on that. Now, as far as the hiring side, as we've discussed before, every single month we go through our hiring plan. When we do that, we're looking to consider all of the different variables that we have to take into account, right? Those are things like attrition. To your question, the positive impact we get from productivity, changes in markets, and the list goes on and on. We've already made adjustments this year to our hiring plan based on the changes in different markets, and we'll continue to do that. Joe, we're committed to make sure that as we look at our asset base, we continue to be volume variable plus.
Jim Vena (CEO)
Eric, the only thing I could add is, and I think you did a great job of describing it. You make it sound easy, but it is very complex. At the end of the day, the way we look at it and the nice part about where we are right now is with us implementing Netcontrol and new dispatch system that allows us to dispatch at the highest level and react to things as they are moving on. Our new Netcontrol will allow us to actually react in a real fast manner. It is all about touch points for the cars. If we can touch the railcars less to get them from origin to destination, we are not a linear railroad. We are very complex.
When you come out of the LA Basin, we have intermodal containers, both domestic and international, going across this network of ours, plus going east into the eastern part with our partners east of the Mississippi. The way we look at it is, how can we use the technology that we've developed and the fundamental technology to be able to make decisions so we remove touch points? If we can remove touch points, then we end up with a more efficient railroad and quicker and react to whatever's thrown at us. The nice part is, we're hiring. We still have to hire, and Eric and the team did a great job when he talked about the headcount that we have in operations versus with the business that was increased. We were actually down. We want to continue to be able to be as neutral as we can.
The first action we take always is we stop hiring or we slow down hiring if we need to, if we see there's something changing. We take full realization that when we make a decision to hire, this is not a one day they show up and they're on the railroad as a conductor or as an engineering person or as a mechanical person or whatever. Listen, at headquarters, if we miss somebody one day, it's not that big of a deal. Somebody else will work an extra hour and we'll fill that in. When it comes out in the field, you need those locomotive engineers, conductors. We make sure that we're very careful, but because we were hiring, we adjust that, and we'll adjust that down if we see things happen over the next few weeks on what we're going to do.
We are hiring now for three months down the road, three, four months down the road. We have already started to slow that down just because we have become more efficient, and then we will take a look at it as we go ahead. Sorry for the long answer, but I love operations, so I had to get in the middle of that. Sorry, Eric.
Joe Hafling (VP and Equity Research Analyst)
That was all very helpful. Thank you.
Eric Gehringer (EVP of Operations)
Thank you. Thanks for the question.
Operator (participant)
Our next question is from the line of Jordan Alger with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.
Jim Vena (CEO)
Morning, Jordan.
Andre Bugeja (Analyst)
Morning, everyone. Thanks for taking the time today. This is Andre on for Jordan. My question is somewhat conceptual, trying to frame the downside risk to freight markets that might be left out there in the respect that most of transportation has already been in a freight recession for three years now. How much additional absolute downside risk is there left to volumes or yields if, in a worst case, we fall into a consumer-led GDP recession? Would a downturn be less pronounced in freight versus historical GDP slowdowns given the already extended slowdown in freight that occurred post-COVID? Or would that be fair to say for some of your non-consumer-facing businesses?
Jennifer Hamann (CFO)
Yeah, I'll take a stab at that one. I mean, I do think your point, making some good points in terms of, particularly when you think about the truck competitive part of our business, which we've been all talking about the fact that it's been in a down mode, maybe recessionary mode the last couple of years, and we've just been bouncing along the bottom there. Over that time, we've made tremendous strides to improve our service. We've filled out our stable of IMC partners. I do think we're extremely well-positioned to be able to capture business that's out there. When I think about the UP franchise, one of the best things about our franchise is the diversity.
With that broad diversity, that broad scope, our reach across a number of markets, we have historically felt that that insulates us a little bit from what happens in one market versus the other. You've seen that. I mean, you've got things last year, our volumes were up 3% when our coal was down 20%. Now this year, we have coal up, and you've got other markets that are down. We'll deal with whatever the markets give us, whether it's a softer landing maybe for us just because of what's happened in the transportation space, the truck space the last few years or not. I think that still remains to be seen. I think the good news is we're agile, we're ready, and we'll respond. With the work that Kenny and team have been doing in business development, the service product that Eric's team is providing them, I think we'll capture our share and more, and we'll perform very well.
Andre Bugeja (Analyst)
Thanks. Appreciate the thoughts.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Daniel Imbro with Stephens. Please proceed with your question.
Jim Vena (CEO)
Good morning.
Daniel Imbro (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)
Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the question. Kenny, I want to follow up on the intermodal, maybe volume and kind of revenue per carload outlook. I think you mentioned there's some international headwinds coming, but the potential for more domestic strength from truckload conversions. I guess, how did those domestic conversions trend through the first quarter as the truck market began to soften? Related to that, I guess, with the favorable mix of more domestic versus international, but maybe a softer truck pricing environment, how are you expecting to see intermodal revenue per carload through the back half of the year, just the way that it's puts and takes?
Kenny Rocker (EVP of Marketing and Sales)
Yeah. I'll just start off by updating you on where we are through bid season and call it a little bit more than a third going through the bid season. We're encouraged on where we are from a bid perspective. We're encouraged by the wins that are out there. Again, you hear me talk about the channels, the stable of private asset customers along with our own private box. We've seen wins in those sections. The over-the-road section, part of our business is the one that we're most focused on. A strong service product will help you with that. We talked about 6,000 loads with Uber that we won. That's all over the road. That's how we're approaching that. From a price perspective, we have mechanisms in place to go out there and price with all of our customers.
Again, with our rail asset, we're also able to compete in that marketplace. We've been in a lull, as Jennifer mentioned on our previous question, for a while. That has allowed us to go out there and win and compete business during a challenging environment. As the market or if the market does improve, we expect to move in a more positive direction on the revenue per car side.
Jennifer Hamann (CFO)
Yeah. The only thing I'll add there is if you think about, which we talk about, mix within mix. Within intermodal, there are different mixes. We talked back in September that international intermodal is our lowest average revenue per car. If you see less international intermodal, more domestic, that can be positive within that mix-on-mix space. Another thing to take into consideration.
Jim Vena (CEO)
Great. Thank you for the question.
Operator (participant)
The next question is from the line of Ari Rosa with Citigroup. Please proceed with your question.
Jim Vena (CEO)
Good morning, Ari.
Ari Rosa (Senior Analyst in Equity Research)
Yeah. Hey, good morning. I just wanted to ask a clarifying question. When you talk about EPS growth consistent with attaining the three-year CAGR on EPS, just help me understand. That is not specifically a target for 2025 to be up high single digits to low double digits. I just wanted to clarify that point. We have seen some strength in coal in second quarter to date. I just wanted to help understand what is underlying that strength and the extent to which you think it is sustainable. Thanks.
Jim Vena (CEO)
All right. I wish I could come here and tell you that what we see is a high single digit, low double digit for sure this year. There are just too many variables that we cannot control going on right now. We are very comfortable with the way the railroad is operating, and if we continue, we are standing by our guidance. That is the way I look at it.
Kenny Rocker (EVP of Marketing and Sales)
Just on the natural gas, it is really the driver there when you look at our coal business. The other part of that is being able to capture that business. Eric and the team have done a great job of being agile, getting the resources in place. We actually saw double-digit strength inside the quarter. Sequentially from February to March, we were able to capture that business year-over-year. you are talking sets that were added over 25%. Great job there. I'm excited because you look at the natural gas part of it, but you also look at the business win that we have, and we've added those sets in, and we're seeing those up and running. Natural gas is volatile. We've seen it move around in the month, but the ability to be agile is what we look at.
Jim Vena (CEO)
Great. Thanks for the question.
Robert Knight (Head of Investor Relations)
The next question is from the line of David Vernon with Bernstein. Please proceed with your question.
Jim Vena (CEO)
All right, David.
David Vernon (Senior Analyst)
Hey, good morning. Thanks for fitting me in here. I wanted to ask maybe Kenny or Jennifer, when we're talking about the best pricing we've had in about 10 years, can you help us sort of understand kind of how much it has improved kind of either sequentially or relative to where we were sort of last year? What specifically has changed to drive it? Are we starting to see the benefits of a better service product, or is this just you guys are being more effective on capturing price in coal, for example? What are you thinking about the ability to sustain that best level of pricing in 10 years as we go through the rest of this year? Thank you.
Kenny Rocker (EVP of Marketing and Sales)
I'll start, and if you want to jump in, Jennifer. I'm going to be a broken record here, but look, when you have a strong service product for what you sold to the customers, you can lead with that. When you have a strong service product plus the investments that you have, you can lead with that. We sit down with our customers, share the Service Performance Index with them, and we know what acceptable levels of pricing are. We lead with that. I think there was a question about, I think it was about mindset or will it sustain. We will always have a mindset to go out there and price to the service that's sold. That won't change. The team is crystal clear on that. There you have it.
Jennifer Hamann (CFO)
Yeah. Kenny, I really don't know that I can add to that, but when you walk through the drivers of our price, you hit on all of them. The only part of the market right now that's not supportive to our pricing is that truck piece, which we've been talking about. If we can get a little bit of help from that, that could be further good news for us.
Jim Vena (CEO)
The only thing I had.
David Vernon (Senior Analyst)
Go ahead.
Jim Vena (CEO)
Sorry about that, but let me, if you just give me a second here, and I appreciate it. At the end of the day, what we've also done is we've invested in being able to give more markets for our customers, whether it's what we did at the east end of the LA Basin at Colton with the new facility there, what we've done in Phoenix, what we're doing in Kansas City, but not just in Minneapolis. I could keep on going on that side of the business, but we've invested with our customers in the industrial base and in the bulk base. We've opened up new facilities. Pricing comes by being able to provide baseline service at a high level and consistent, not just customers. No one likes it if it's one week or a month. It has to be consistent.
I think we've been able to show that for the last few quarters that we're very consistent, and we have a good handle of how to operate this railroad. We went through, we didn't even talk about winter. Some people like to talk about winter. We had winter. We had storms. We had floods. At the end of the day, the resiliency and the way we operate the railroad and the buffer is real important to us. The last thing is on the carload business, which is real important to us, especially when it comes to pricing and margin and the markets that they serve, is we've expanded our fluidity. We spent a lot of money in that Houston area to be able to improve our hump yard, and we just about doubled the capacity of the place that removes touch points.
That allows you to give better service and allows you to open more markets for our customers. It is a complicated decision-making in what we have done. Just to add on to what was already said by Kenny and Jennifer, that is the way we look at it.
David Vernon (Senior Analyst)
All right. Thanks for that. Maybe if I could just tack one more on here. Have you guys seen any sort of change in cross-border Mexico volumes, either Laredo or Eagle Pass as we've been dealing with some of the tariff imposition? I'm just wondering if there's been any noticeable sort of shift in that north-south volume.
Jim Vena (CEO)
Why don't you talk about what we've seen the last sort of year or so and what we've seen sort of a balance against our competitor and then what we've seen more recently?
Kenny Rocker (EVP of Marketing and Sales)
Yeah. If you look at it, it does start with the fundamentals. It does start with the fact that we've got seven-day-a-week service, that we've got the best route, we've got shorter miles, we've got a faster route. If you look at Mexico, when we talk to our customers, and we've been there over 30 years, when we talk to our customers, yes, because I've just mentioned all those attributes, we know we can win and compete. We're also selling the entire network. It's not just one part of Texas or one lane that we're going in. We're moving and utilizing the entire network.
You look at the last quarter, yeah, there were stops and starts, especially when you look at our automotive segment. You heard me say in my words, we really sat closely with our customers and focused on the fundamentals, which for us in Mexico is the service product, the interchange, making sure we have enough equipment. Where we see ourselves today, we certainly do not try to manage our business to a market share, but we feel good about where we are, and we know we are up a few points as we look at our market share so far this year.
Jim Vena (CEO)
Thanks for the second question. Appreciate it.
Operator (participant)
The next question is from the line of Rachel Hermann with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.
Jim Vena (CEO)
Good morning.
Good morning. Your execution this quarter was strong, all things considered, but clearly, just from the tone of some of these questions, there is a lot of fear out there. A lot of that is related to your exposure. Maybe you can help quell those by sizing up your exposures a little bit, I was hoping. For instance, with grain exports, appreciate, Kenny, you saying that it is very strong given Mexico and speaking to the agility of your network. Can you tell us how much of that business is Mexico exports versus China? Just on international intermodal, you said that is about 40% of total premium for 2024. Can you tell us how much is West Coast or China-oriented? Thank you.
Kenny Rocker (EVP of Marketing and Sales)
Yeah. We talked about the grain. I certainly, unfortunately, won't be able to give you any specifics and break out our grain network. What I'll tell you, though, is that I mentioned the strength in grain. We've been growing there. I mentioned the rail and physical infrastructure that we have on the origin side to grow that market. We're focused on expanding the pie, even if it means, and that's why I wanted to emphasize that we are moving into different markets like the Gulf and in Mexico. There was a question on international intermodal, I think, where you wanted me to break out those numbers. I'll stay away from doing that and just let you know that a strong service product along with the new products that we have, we inserted a new product. Jim talked about it in the Twin Cities.
Last year, we were able to get a good win. That'll still continue into this year. We're seeing a little bit more growth into the new market, new ramp that we have in Arizona in the Phoenix area. We've inserted new products going from the Gulf to other parts of our network. We're going to be pretty aggressive about building out that network and not being dependent on one area.
Okay. Appreciate it. Thank you.
Robert Knight (Head of Investor Relations)
Our next question is from the line of Jeff Kauffman with Vertical Research Partners. Please proceed with your question.
Jim Vena (CEO)
Good morning, Jim.
Jeff Kauffman (Partner and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Good morning. Thanks for squeezing me in. Jim, I liked your opening comment about how if you just look from 10,000 feet, revenues were flat, margins were flat, outlook's the same, no changes. The reality was anything but. I'm just kind of curious, if we look at your forward outlook today for whether it's groups or pricing, as you were talking about core pricing, things like that, what's different today than it was, say, three months ago when you gave us guidance that's kind of been a legitimate surprise?
Jim Vena (CEO)
The biggest surprise is the whole discussion of import-exports, tariffs, and the effect on the business. Like I said, to start off with, our biggest worry and what we look at, and it's not a worry, it's just I don't worry, okay? That was a mistake by me. I don't worry. You have to react and be able to run the business and operate it in a smart manner, is what the consumer is going to do. So far, we haven't seen a huge impact. If anything, we really haven't seen it. Our carloads are up across the board in most places still from where we were last year. That is the thing that we have to keep an eye on. It is a daily exercise. Every day, we look at what's happening to the U.S. consumer and the market because that's who the final customer is for us.
Jeff Kauffman (Partner and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
If I take out the intermodal uncertainty part of it or the international trade certainty and you just look more at the bulk or industrial groups, what was the legitimate surprise there, positive or negative?
Jim Vena (CEO)
I think I don't like to think about it as a surprise. The things that we can do have not been a surprise. We have done a great job this quarter. I give Eric and the entire team a pat on the back. They've done a great job. Jennifer's done a great job to set us up to handle financially anything that we need. You can see where our rating is, 2.8 debt to EBITDA. You can see where our cash is. We're in a great position there. Kenny and team have done a great job of pricing for the value of what we provide. The things that we can't control are the things that we have to look at very carefully. At this point, I think at the end of the day, we come to the right place as a country, but I think there's going to be some noise, and we'll react to whatever noise is thrown at us.
Jeff Kauffman (Partner and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. Thank you.
Jim Vena (CEO)
You're welcome.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from the line of Oliver Holmes with Redburn Atlantic. Please proceed with your question.
Jim Vena (CEO)
Good morning.
Oliver Holmes (Equity Analyst)
Hi. Good morning. Thanks for having me on. Just a quick one. Is there a scenario, perhaps maybe you're already seeing it, where Asia ex-China and Mexico pick up share of the trade while China continues, in essence, reducing the impact of Chinese tariffs? Maybe just a follow-up on that, is this something you saw during 2018-2019 when tariffs were levied on China? Thanks.
Jennifer Hamann (CFO)
Yeah. Thanks for that question. I think, Kenny, the question he's asking is, are you seeing more in terms of shifts away from China to Vietnam, Korea?
Kenny Rocker (EVP of Marketing and Sales)
Yeah. Okay. Good. There is some good public data out there, and you can see, Oliver, over the last few quarters, a little bit of a change. We look at the IANA data, and you can see a little bit of a change from China going into the Southeast Asia piece. It has held strong. Those volumes have held strong. We can see them coming up to us. We like the fact that there is diversity in that, and we are going to continue to take advantage of it.
Jim Vena (CEO)
The future is a moving target, though, and pressures of what's happening in the marketplace right now and what's happening to trade will have an effect. It just takes a while for some of those things to settle down. Thanks for the question.
Oliver Holmes (Equity Analyst)
Thanks.
Operator (participant)
The next question is from the line of Jason Seidl with TD Cowen. Please proceed with your question.
Jim Vena (CEO)
Morning.
Jason Seidl (Managing Director and Research Analyst)
Thanks, operator. Morning. Jim, I feel your pain on being down to nothing here. Jennifer, I think the question goes to you. You guys did a pretty good job of managing sort of salaries, wages, and benefits per employee in one Q. Wondering how we should think about that line item going forward. Just to clarify, I believe you talked about that $46 million gain in last year's two Q. Was that in other income?
Jennifer Hamann (CFO)
Okay. For the first part of your question, we laid out in January that we expected for the full year, our comp per employee, cost per employee, to be up 4%. You're right. Did a great job in the first quarter, only up 2%. At this point, we would stick with the 4% just because as we're looking ahead, we know that July 1 is another wage increase. We're obviously still negotiating with our unions, but as you know, we accrue regardless of if we've started paying those wage increases or not. We also have, we think this will be towards the back part of the year, but we also are working towards an agreement with our SMART-TD, our conductor's union, in terms of work rest for them. That's why we're holding with that 4% in terms of the cost per employee, in terms of the outlook on a full-year basis. In terms of your other question, that was in the other expense line in terms of the $46 million where that flowed through as a good guy last year.
Jason Seidl (Managing Director and Research Analyst)
Perfect. Thank you very much. Appreciate the time.
Jim Vena (CEO)
Okay. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our final question is from the line of Jairam Nathan with Daiwa. Please proceed with your question.
Jim Vena (CEO)
Good morning.
Jairam Nathan (Executive Director and Senior Analyst)
Hi. Thanks for the conversation. Just on, we talk a lot about what you can do on the cost side and stuff, but I just wanted to understand on the balance sheet in terms of share repurchases, if things get long drawn or you see a bigger than bigger impact, how should we think of your capital return plan between share repurchase, conserving cash?
Jennifer Hamann (CFO)
Yeah. Thanks for that question. Off to a really strong start here in 2025. Our guide for the year in terms of share repurchases was $4 billion-$4.5 billion. At this point, I think we're at a little over $1.7 billion in terms of what we've returned so far, $1.5 billion through the accelerated share repurchase program and another $200 million in open market purchases. In one quarter, almost halfway there, I'd say we feel very good about that range. Obviously, we'll watch it. If the situation changes, we can scale back. That is the flexible lever. We've got $1.4 billion on the balance sheet today. Again, we're reiterating the guide to the $4 billion-$4.5 billion, and that's our view for the full year and feel confident in that. If the world changes dramatically for us, we can flex that.
Jairam Nathan (Executive Director and Senior Analyst)
Thank you. That's all right.
Jim Vena (CEO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. This concludes the question-and-answer session. I'll now turn the call back over to Mr. Vena for closing comments.
Jim Vena (CEO)
I think the questions were spot on. There were questions that we ask ourselves every day. I think we've shown as Union Pacific what we can do and how we can react. I think that's real important. At the end of the day, truly, it would be a boring job. I probably wouldn't be here if you woke up every morning and everything was perfect. You see the quality of a company, and you see the quality of the management when you see how they react to things. I think the team did a great job first quarter. Very excited with what we have going on fundamentally. In the long term, I like where Union Pacific is. With that, let's sign off. I know we have our annual general meeting happening in May, and we'll be talking to our owners then. Thank you very much, everyone, for taking the time to join us this morning. Have a good one.
Operator (participant)
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may now disconnect your lines at this time. Have a wonderful day.
