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    Waters Corp (WAT)

    Q3 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Feb 7, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$323.11Last close (Oct 31, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$375.00Open (Nov 1, 2024)
    Price Change
    $51.89(+16.06%)
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue

    +4%

    Solid overall performance driven by strong demand in core product lines and regional growth in Asia and Europe, partially offset by foreign currency headwinds and mixed pharma market conditions. This aligns with prior period improvements in recurring revenues.

    Chemistry Consumables

    +8%

    Robust demand in pharmaceutical and industrial segments, bolstered by application-specific testing kits and ongoing e-commerce adoption. This reflects higher growth than in previous periods, when currency impacts and cautious spending were moderating consumables momentum.

    Service

    +6%

    Higher service attachment rates and expanding installed base contributed to recurring revenue growth. Compared to prior quarters, increased service contract renewals and steady post-installation support have carried forward into this period, boosting service revenue streams.

    Asia

    +6%

    Recovery in Chinese pharma demand and steady industrial investment lifted regional performance. While cautious capital spending weighed on previous quarters, improved market sentiment and ongoing customer projects supported this year-over-year increase in Asia.

    Japan

    +8%

    Continued strength in instrument upgrades and solid pharma collaborations drove growth, offsetting prior slower quarters impacted by capital spending delays. The rebound in funding and stable product pipeline led to year-over-year improvement.

    Europe

    +6%

    Broad-based expansion across industrial and academic/government end markets, aided by new product launches. Despite some FX volatility dampening prior quarters, the region maintained healthy instrument demand and recurring revenue growth, resulting in a net positive effect.

    Operating Income (EBIT)

    +18%

    Enhanced operating leverage stemming from higher revenue, cost discipline, and favorable product mix increased profitability. This contrasts with prior periods in which acquisition costs and higher selling expenses muted EBIT margins.

    Net Income

    +20%

    Strong top-line growth combined with cost efficiencies and better margin realization drove net income higher. In earlier quarters, incremental integration expenses and R&D investments tempered earnings, but these factors have moderated to support higher net income this period.

    EPS (Basic)

    +20%

    Improvement in net income and ongoing share repurchases propelled earnings per share growth beyond the prior year’s rate. Before this period, increased amortization and foreign currency impacts had constrained EPS expansion, now more than offset by heightened profitability.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Organic Constant Currency Sales Growth

    FY 2024

    -2% to -0.5%

    -0.9% to -0.3%

    raised

    Reported Sales Growth

    FY 2024

    -2.2% to -0.7%

    -0.8% to -0.2%

    raised

    Gross Margin

    FY 2024

    59.8%

    59.8%

    no change

    Adjusted Operating Margin

    FY 2024

    31%

    31%

    no change

    Adjusted EPS

    FY 2024

    $11.55 to $11.65

    $11.67 to $11.87

    raised

    Net Interest Expense

    FY 2024

    $77 million

    $71 million

    lowered

    Tax Rate

    FY 2024

    16.3%

    16.5%

    raised

    Average Diluted Share Count

    FY 2024

    59.4 million

    59.5 million

    raised

    MetricPeriodGuidanceActualPerformance
    Organic Constant Currency Sales Growth
    Q3 2024
    +1% to +3%
    Approximately +5.5% YoY (derived from Q3 2023 revenue of 711.692Vs. Q3 2024 revenue of 740.3)
    Beat
    Reported Sales Growth
    Q3 2024
    -0.5% to +1.5%
    +4.0% YoY ((740.3 - 711.692) / 711.692)
    Beat
    Non-GAAP EPS
    Q3 2024
    $2.60 to $2.70
    $2.71 (diluted)
    Beat
    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Recurring revenue stability

    Historically grew mid- to high-single digits each quarter: Q2 up 5%, Q1 low single digits, Q4 mid-single digits.

    Recurring revenues grew 7% with consumables up 8%, maintaining mid- to high-single-digit growth.

    Steady focus on stable recurring growth; sentiment remains positive.

    China market conditions

    Q2 declined 10%, Q1 ~30% decline, Q4 over 20% decline with repeated stimulus discussions.

    Sales declined 5% YoY but improved vs. prior quarters; stimulus timing remains uncertain.

    Slightly better outlook but still cautious.

    Margin expansion through pricing and cost

    Cost optimization and pricing have consistently delivered margin gains: Q2 margin 59.3%, Q1 58.9%, Q4 ~59.6%.

    Gross margin at 59.3%, up 20bps YoY, driven by pricing and spend discipline.

    Stable improvement, aided by pricing and productivity.

    PFAS testing opportunities

    Each quarter cited PFAS as a strong tailwind, with TQ Absolute driving share gains.

    PFAS revenues grew over 40%, aided by Xevo TQ Absolute; total market ~$300–350M at 20% CAGR.

    Ongoing rapid growth, with expanding applications.

    GLP-1 applications

    Mentioned in Q2 as part of HPLC to UPLC transition; Q4 projected 30bps annual growth through 2030; no Q1 mention.

    Contribute 30–40bps growth; Waters is principal QA/QC vendor for major GLP-1 manufacturers and sees potential in generics.

    Increasing relevance as volumes rise, positive momentum.

    Generics market potential

    Q2 noted improving generics in China; Q1 highlighted branded generics replacement; Q4 saw cyclical China challenges.

    Drives strong growth in India and Eastern Europe; boosted by aging global population and patent expirations.

    Remains bullish, especially in India and Eastern Europe.

    New product portfolio (Alliance iS, Xevo TQ…)

    Discussed each quarter: Q2 showcased Alliance iS QC benefits and MRT launch at ASMS; Q1 introduced iS Bio and TQ Absolute for PFAS; Q4 emphasized broad portfolio traction.

    Alliance iS, Xevo TQ Absolute, and Xevo MRT seeing strong adoption; TQ Absolute unit sales grew 70% YoY.

    Consistent rollouts driving share gains and portfolio refresh.

    Wyatt acquisition synergies

    Q2 cited ahead-of-target synergy and EPS accretion; Q1 noted cross-selling progress; Q4 saw on-target M&A contribution.

    No specific mention in Q3.

    Previously positive; no current update.

    E-commerce expansion

    Q4 2023 indicated e-commerce rose from ~20% to 35%, targeting ~40% by end of 2024; no mention in Q2 or Q1.

    Cited as a continued growth factor for recurring revenues, though details were limited.

    Ongoing but with less Q3 detail.

    Service attachment rate increases

    Q2 added 100bps, aiming another 50–100bps; Q4 reported a 500bps gain over three years, with 100bps more planned for 2024.

    Mentioned as increasing, fueling stable recurring revenues.

    Continuously climbing, supporting recurring revenues.

    Dependence on second-half ramp or budget flush

    Q2 remained cautious on second-half flush; Q1 projected 45–55 H1/H2 split; Q4 2023 had a muted budget flush.

    Q3 guidance assumes mid-teen revenue ramp from Q3 to Q4, described as prudent with no pull-forward.

    Ongoing caution around year-end budget patterns.

    Tax rate changes & global min tax

    Q2 indicated a ~16.3% full-year rate; Q4 call detailed 150–200bps rise due to R&D capitalization and potential Singapore/Ireland changes.

    No mention in Q3.

    No update this period; prior calls highlighted rising rates.

    Large molecule therapies & QA/QC processes

    Q2 integrated MALS with Empower; Q1 launched iS Bio for biologics QA/QC; Q4 aimed to simplify large molecule QA/QC.

    Large molecules now ~50% of pipeline; ~40% of pharma chemistry revenue. QA/QC expansions remain central.

    Accelerating focus on biologics, big potential for future growth.

    Growth in India & Eastern Europe

    Q2 cited >20% growth in India; no mention in Q1 or Q4.

    Strong gains in generics; India ~5–8% of total sales, Eastern Europe also seeing good uptake.

    Sustained improvement, India especially driving momentum.

    Competitive pricing pressures

    Q2 noted pricing discipline without explicit reference to pressures; no mention in Q1 or Q4.

    Aggressive environment, yet Waters achieves +100bps vs. historic pricing, aiding margin expansion.

    Holding firm on pricing strategy despite competition.

    1. China Growth Outlook
      Q: How is China performing, and what's the outlook with the stimulus?
      A: Udit Batra stated that China came in line with expectations, with orders in line with last year and sales down 5% due to shipment timing. They feel well-positioned to capitalize on the upcoming stimulus and have already received initial orders, though timing is uncertain. Medium-term, they expect China to grow at mid-single digits, with potential to outperform due to their advantaged portfolio and execution.

    2. LC Replacement Cycle
      Q: Is the LC replacement cycle picking up faster than expected?
      A: Udit Batra confirmed that the LC replacement cycle is beginning, with instruments returning to growth after seven quarters of decline. Cross-functional discussions with customers indicate a multi-year replacement process is underway. This has positively impacted instrument sales, especially in pharmaceutical QA/QC segments in Europe and the U.S..

    3. GLP-1 Peptide Opportunity
      Q: How significant is the GLP-1 opportunity, and what's Waters' position?
      A: GLP-1s are accretive to growth, contributing about 30 to 40 basis points. Waters is the primary vendor for columns to the two largest injectable GLP-1 manufacturers and holds a significant share in instruments, around 60-40 in their favor. They are also well-positioned for orals and with generic manufacturers as GLP-1s become genericized.

    4. PFAS Testing Growth
      Q: How is PFAS testing contributing to growth?
      A: PFAS testing is accretive, adding 30 to 40 basis points to growth. Waters has a market-leading instrument, the Xevo TQ Absolute, which aids in winning more orders. The PFAS opportunity is expanding into food and consumer products, potentially increasing growth beyond initial estimates.

    5. 2025 Guidance and Outlook
      Q: What are the expectations for growth in 2025?
      A: Udit Batra did not provide specific guidance for 2025 but mentioned that recurring revenues are like a "Swiss clock," and factors like generics volume growth, PFAS testing, GLP-1s, the LC replacement cycle, and China stimulus will influence future performance. They will share more details during the Q4 earnings.

    6. Competitive Dynamics
      Q: Is Waters gaining market share or benefiting from market recovery?
      A: Udit Batra believes they are winning more than losing, highlighting strong commercial execution and a market-leading portfolio, including the Alliance iS and Xevo TQ Absolute. Precise market share quantification is challenging due to lack of industry data, but they feel very good about their competitive position.

    7. Q4 Guidance Assumptions
      Q: How conservative is the Q4 guidance?
      A: The guidance assumes a revenue ramp similar to last year, with a 15.5% increase from Q3 to Q4, slightly higher due to two extra days in Q4. They aim to be prudent, acknowledging that while trends are improving, more data is needed before becoming more bullish.

    8. Recurring Revenue Sustainability
      Q: Can the growth in recurring revenue be sustained?
      A: Recurring revenues are described as being like a "Swiss clock," consistently growing at 6% to 8%. This stability is expected to continue, driven by new innovations and increased service attachment rates.

    9. Capital Allocation Strategy
      Q: Is there a preference for M&A over buybacks?
      A: Udit Batra stated that Waters follows a balanced capital allocation strategy, focusing on organic growth and disciplined M&A aligned with strategic ambitions, as seen with the Wyatt acquisition, while continuing to return value to shareholders through buybacks.