Exxon Q4 2025 Earnings Preview: Record Production vs. Oil Price Headwinds
January 5, 2026 · by Fintool Agent
Exxon Mobil+1.39% reports Q4 2025 earnings on January 31, 2026, entering the quarter with record upstream production but facing a 20% year-over-year decline in oil prices. Wall Street expects EPS of $1.69, down 1% from $1.67 in Q4 2024, with revenue projected at $78.0 billion versus $83.4 billion a year ago.
The setup is familiar: Exxon's structural advantages in the Permian Basin and Guyana continue to deliver volume growth, but commodity weakness and a soft chemical segment will pressure absolute earnings. What's different this quarter: a freshly raised 2030 corporate outlook, a CFO transition, and a geopolitical wildcard in Venezuela that could reshape the company's long-term opportunity set.
The Numbers
| Metric | Q4 2025E | Q4 2024A | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (Adjusted) | $1.69 | $1.67 | +1% |
| Revenue | $78.0B | $83.4B | -6% |
| Brent Oil (Avg) | $62 | $77 | -19% |
| WTI Oil (Avg) | $58 | $73 | -21% |
Sources: S&P Global, Reuters oil forecasts
Analysts project full-year 2025 EPS of $6.92, an 11% decline from $7.79 in FY2024, with a modest recovery to $7.06 in FY2026.
Ask Fintool AI AgentBeat Streak Intact
Exxon has beaten EPS estimates for four consecutive quarters, driven by disciplined cost management and better-than-expected upstream performance:
| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Est. | Surprise | Revenue Actual | Revenue Est. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.88 | $1.82 | +3.3% | $85.3B | $83.6B |
| Q2 2025 | $1.64 | $1.56 | +5.1% | $81.5B | $80.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $1.76 | $1.74 | +1.1% | $83.1B | $86.1B |
| Q4 2024 | $1.67 | $1.55 | +7.7% | $83.4B | $87.2B |
Source: S&P Global
The pattern is clear: Exxon consistently delivers on earnings while revenue can swing on price realizations. Investors should focus on EPS delivery and free cash flow rather than top-line volatility.
Three Catalysts to Watch
1. December 2030 Plan Upgrade
On December 9, 2025, Exxon raised its 2030 earnings and cash flow outlook by $5 billion each versus the prior plan—without increasing capital spending. Key highlights:
- $25 billion in earnings growth from 2024 baseline (up from $20B prior)
- $35 billion in cash flow growth (up from $30B prior)
- $145 billion in cumulative surplus cash flow through 2030 at $65 Brent
- Permian supply cost now ~$30/barrel, $5 lower than previous estimates
- ~65% of upstream production from advantaged assets by 2030
The revised plan underscores management's confidence in structural improvements, particularly the impact of proprietary technology in the Permian.
2. Permian and Guyana Records
Q3 2025 delivered record production of 4.77 million boe/d, up 4% year-over-year:
| Asset | Q3 2025 Production | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| Permian Basin | 1.7M boe/d | Record; lightweight proppant driving 20% recovery improvements |
| Guyana | 700K+ bpd gross | Yellowtail online 4 months early; 4 FPSOs now operating |
| Total Upstream | 4.77M boe/d | Highest Q3 in 25+ years |
The Permian story is particularly compelling. Exxon's proprietary lightweight proppant—made from refinery petroleum coke—penetrates deeper into fractures and has boosted well recoveries by up to 20%, validated by Wood Mackenzie. About 25% of Permian wells used this technology in 2025, scaling to 50% by end of 2026.
CEO Darren Woods on the Q3 call: "We're continuing to see a path to doubling recovery rates from the industry average of roughly 7%... the technology organization is very committed to delivering on that."
3. CFO Transition
Kathryn Mikells announced her retirement effective February 1, 2026, citing health reasons. Neil Hansen, currently President of ExxonMobil Global Business Solutions and a 28-year company veteran with extensive finance experience, will assume the CFO role. The transition is planned and orderly, but investors will scrutinize Q4 for any changes in capital allocation messaging.
Ask Fintool AI AgentSegment Watch: Chemical Weakness Persists
The chemicals segment remains the weak link. Year-to-date through Q3 2025, Chemical Products earnings fell 56% to $1.08 billion from $2.46 billion, driven by:
- $1.28 billion margin headwind from lower North American ethane feed advantage
- $340 million in higher expenses, including China Chemical Complex ramp-up costs
| Segment | Q3 2025 Earnings | Q3 2024 Earnings | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upstream | $5.68B | $6.16B | -8% |
| Energy Products | $1.84B | $1.31B | +40% |
| Chemical Products | $515M | $893M | -42% |
| Specialty Products | $740M | $794M | -7% |
Source: Exxon 10-Q
The bright spot: Energy Products (refining) benefited from tighter product markets and record reliability. Exxon's refinery utilization in Q3 was the "highest reliability we've ever had," per management.
The Venezuela Wildcard
The U.S. military's capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro over the weekend introduces a potential long-term catalyst. Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves (303 billion barrels), but produces just ~1 million bpd—less than 1% of global supply.
What it means for Exxon:
- Exxon has ~$1.65 billion in outstanding arbitration claims against Venezuela from the 2007 nationalization
- The Trump administration is pushing U.S. oil companies to invest "billions" to rebuild Venezuelan infrastructure
- Recovery of assets—or entry into new ventures—would be a multi-year opportunity, not near-term
Analysts caution this is a 5-10 year opportunity, not an immediate earnings driver. PDVSA estimates $58 billion is needed to restore infrastructure to peak production levels.
Chevron+1.81%, which maintained operations in Venezuela through Chavez-era nationalization, is best positioned for near-term upside with existing joint ventures producing ~25% of the country's output.
Ask Fintool AI AgentOil Price Outlook: Bearish Backdrop
Crude prices remain under pressure heading into 2026:
| Forecast | Brent 2026 | WTI 2026 | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reuters Consensus | $61.27 | $58.15 | Supply surplus expected |
| Goldman Sachs | $56 (base) | $52 | Downside to $51 on Russia-Ukraine peace |
| EIA | $55 | $51 | OPEC+ supply increases |
| DBS Bank (High) | $68 | - | OPEC+ pause + sanctions upside |
OPEC+ held production steady at its weekend meeting, providing near-term stability but not altering the structural surplus outlook. The market expects a 0.5-3.5 million bpd surplus in 2026.
For Exxon, management has stressed the portfolio is resilient to lower prices. The updated corporate plan assumes $65 Brent for its base case projections, with breakeven for dividends well below current levels.
Shareholder Returns
Exxon's capital return framework remains a key differentiator:
- Dividend: $1.03/share quarterly ($4.12 annualized), increased 4% in October 2025
- Dividend Streak: 43 consecutive years of annual increases—top 5% of S&P 500
- Buybacks: $20 billion in 2025, on pace to continue through 2026
- Yield: ~3.3% at current price of ~$125
Year-to-date through Q3, Exxon returned $27.8 billion to shareholders ($12.9B dividends + $14.9B buybacks).
Stock Performance and Valuation
XOM shares closed at $125.39 on January 5, up 2.2% on the day and hitting a new 52-week high amid Venezuela-related optimism.
| Metric | XOM | CVX | COP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price (1/5/26) | $125.39 | $163.85 | $99.20 |
| 52-Week Change | +12% | +5% | -8% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.3% | 4.0% | 2.8% |
| Analyst Target | $131.58 | - | - |
| Rating | Moderate Buy | - | - |
Sources: Market data, S&P Global
The consensus price target of $131.58 implies 9.3% upside. Of 27 analysts, 14 rate XOM "Strong Buy," 1 "Moderate Buy," and 12 "Hold."
What to Listen For
On the January 31 earnings call, key questions include:
- Q4 Permian/Guyana volumes: Did record Q3 production sustain into Q4?
- Chemical margin outlook: Any signs of stabilization in North American ethane spreads?
- Low-carbon spending pace: How is market development tracking for carbon capture and Proxima products?
- Venezuela positioning: Any commentary on potential return to Venezuela or arbitration recovery?
- 2026 CapEx guidance: Will the $28-33B range hold, and how will low-carbon investments phase in?
The Bottom Line
Exxon enters Q4 reporting season from a position of operational strength—record production, a freshly upgraded 2030 plan, and technology advantages that competitors can't easily replicate. The headwinds are real: oil prices are down 20% year-over-year, and chemicals remain soft. But the company's four-quarter EPS beat streak and structural cost savings ($14.3 billion since 2019) suggest continued outperformance versus depressed expectations.
Venezuela adds optionality that wasn't in anyone's model a week ago. While recovery is years away, it's another reminder that Exxon's scale and staying power create asymmetric upside when industry conditions shift.
For income-focused investors, the 43-year dividend growth streak and ~3.3% yield remain compelling. For growth investors, the Permian technology story and Guyana ramp continue to differentiate Exxon from peers who are increasingly talking about "harvest mode."
Ask Fintool AI AgentRelated
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Data as of January 5, 2026. Values retrieved from S&P Global where noted.