GE Vernova Raises Guidance as AI Power Boom Overshadows Wind Woes, Vineyard Wind Wins Court Reprieve
January 28, 2026 · by Fintool Agent
Ge Vernova+1.91% reported Q4 2025 earnings that reveal a company navigating two colliding megatrends: the AI-driven power demand supercycle and a hostile policy environment for offshore wind. The company raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $44-45 billion while its Vineyard Wind project won a critical court reprieve—the fourth consecutive federal court defeat for the Trump administration's offshore wind freeze.
The results underscore a stark divergence: GE Vernova's gas power and electrification businesses are experiencing record demand from hyperscalers racing to build AI infrastructure, while its wind segment hemorrhaged $600 million in 2025 losses—$200 million more than expected—after the administration's December 22 stop-work order upended the nearly-complete Vineyard Wind project.
The Tale of Three Segments
GE Vernova's quarterly results tell the story of a company where two-thirds of the business is thriving while one-third struggles with policy-driven headwinds.
Gas Power: The AI Beneficiary
The power segment delivered explosive growth. Gas equipment backlog surged 34% sequentially to 83 GW from 62 GW, with 24 GW of new contracts signed in Q4 alone—including 6 GW in just the last three weeks of December.
"We expect to reach approximately 100 GW under contract in 2026," CEO Scott Strazik said on the earnings call, noting that pricing on slot reservation agreements runs 10-20% higher than existing backlog.
The company booked 41 heavy-duty gas turbines in Q4—its largest orders quarter of the year—including 15 HA units, the most efficient turbines in the market.
Ask Fintool AI AgentElectrification: Record Orders from Data Centers
The electrification segment—which makes transformers, switchgear, and grid equipment—posted its largest order quarter in history at $7.4 billion, roughly 2.5x revenue.
The key driver: AI infrastructure. Over $2 billion of electrification orders were signed directly for data centers in 2025—more than triple the 2024 total.
EBITDA margins expanded 560 basis points year-over-year to 14.9%, with the company projecting 17-19% margins in 2026 as it delivers its more profitable backlog.
Wind: $600 Million Hole and Vineyard Wind Drama
The wind segment told a different story. EBITDA losses reached $600 million for 2025, $200 million worse than the $400 million expected at the December 9 investor day.
The culprit: the Trump administration's December 22 stop-work order that halted all five major offshore wind projects on the East Coast, citing national security concerns.
"Until that point, the team was on a path to achieve these expectations as they worked to complete the Vineyard Wind project in early January," CFO Ken Parks explained. "The order created a potential delay of at least 90 days, and we accrued and forecast the estimated incremental contract losses."
Vineyard Wind Court Victory: Trump Admin 0-4
One day before GE Vernova reported earnings, the company received a critical legal reprieve. Federal Judge Brian Murphy blocked the administration's stop-work order on Vineyard Wind, the fourth such ruling against the administration's offshore wind policy in January alone.
The $4.5 billion Vineyard Wind project is 95% complete, with 44 turbines already operational and generating nearly 600 MW of power for the New England grid. At the time of the stop-work order, only 10 turbines needed blades and just 1 turbine remained to be installed.
Judge Murphy was blunt in his assessment: "The government has made no attempt to explain this disconnect... If the government's concern is the operation of these facilities, allowing the ongoing operation of the 44 turbines while prohibiting the repair of the existing turbines and the completion of the 18 additional turbines is irrational."
The financial stakes are significant. If GE Vernova cannot complete installation of the remaining 11 turbines by the end of March—when its contracted installation vessel departs—2026 wind revenue could take a $250 million hit.
Ask Fintool AI AgentFinancial Performance Deep Dive
| Metric | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($B) | $8.0 | $9.1 | $10.0 | $11.0 |
| Net Income ($M) | $254 | $514 | $452 | $3,664 |
| Gross Margin % | 19.0% | 20.5% | 19.2% | 21.2% |
The full-year 2025 results showed significant momentum:
- Revenue: $38 billion, up 9% year-over-year
- Adjusted EBITDA margin: Expanded 210 basis points
- Free cash flow: $3.7 billion, more than double prior year
- Total backlog: $150 billion, up over 25% or $31 billion year-over-year
The company added $8 billion in equipment margin dollars to backlog in 2025—more than the prior two years combined—setting up for substantial margin expansion as these orders convert to revenue.
Raised Guidance Reflects AI Tailwinds
GE Vernova raised its 2026 outlook across the board:
| Metric | Previous Guidance | New Guidance | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $41-42B | $44-45B | +$3B |
| Free Cash Flow | $4.5-5.0B | $5.0-5.5B | +$0.5B |
| EBITDA Margin | 11-13% | 11-13% | Unchanged |
The guidance increase primarily reflects the Prolec GE acquisition, which closes February 2 and adds approximately $3 billion of transformer revenue—equipment increasingly essential for data center buildouts.
By 2028, GE Vernova now projects at least $56 billion in revenue (up from $52 billion) with 20% EBITDA margins and cumulative free cash flow of at least $24 billion from 2025-2028.
What to Watch
Near-term catalysts:
- Vineyard Wind completion deadline (March 31): The installation vessel departs after this date. Every week of delays increases execution risk.
- Sunrise Wind hearing (February 2): The fifth and final offshore wind project heads to court.
- Q3 2026 gas capacity ramp: GE Vernova expects substantial gas turbine output increases starting mid-year as new capacity comes online.
Longer-term themes:
- SMR nuclear progress: Construction continues on the first small modular reactor at Ontario's Darlington site. "We expect SMR to contribute meaningfully to the top line of our power business in the next decade," Strazik said.
- Solid-state transformers: The company completed its first unit and will deliver to a hyperscaler customer in autumn 2026.
Ask Fintool AI AgentThe Investment Case
GE Vernova sits at the intersection of two powerful forces: the insatiable electricity demand from AI infrastructure and the policy uncertainty surrounding clean energy. The Q4 results suggest the former is overwhelming the latter, at least for now.
The company's $150 billion backlog—with $8 billion of incremental margin added in 2025 alone—provides unusual visibility into future profitability. Gas power pricing continues strengthening, with slot reservation agreements running 10-20% above existing backlog. And the electrification segment's record orders suggest the AI data center buildout is only accelerating.
The wind segment remains a drag, but it's becoming a smaller part of the story. Even with $600 million in 2025 losses, the segment represents just 25% of revenue and is expected to narrow losses to $400 million in 2026.
At $695 per share, GE Vernova trades at roughly 15x 2028 projected EBITDA, pricing in significant execution risk. The stock peaked at $731 in December before the offshore wind halt and has recovered most of those losses following the court victories and strong earnings.
The bull case: AI power demand is structural, gas turbine pricing is accelerating, and courts are systematically blocking the administration's wind policy. The bear case: policy uncertainty depresses offshore wind economics, and the administration finds alternative ways to obstruct renewable projects.
For investors, GE Vernova offers perhaps the purest exposure to the electrification of AI—with wind exposure that may prove more manageable than the headlines suggest.