JPMorgan Raises NII Guidance to $104.5B at Company Update 2026, Defying Bank Stock Rout
February 23, 2026 · by Fintool Agent
JPMorgan Chase lifted its 2026 net interest income guidance by $1.5 billion at its Company Update 2026 event Monday evening, projecting firmwide NII of approximately $104.5 billion—even as its stock tumbled 4.2% alongside the broader financial sector amid AI disruption fears and renewed tariff uncertainty.
The largest U.S. bank by assets convened investors at its new 270 Park Avenue headquarters in Manhattan for a condensed two-hour presentation, where CEO Jamie Dimon and executive management laid out a "cautiously optimistic" outlook for the year ahead while defending the firm's $2 billion weekly spending pace .
Guidance Raised Despite Market Turmoil
The revised NII outlook of ~$104.5 billion compares to ~$103 billion guidance issued in January and represents a 9% increase from $95.9 billion in 2025 . The bump stems primarily from Markets NII, which JPMorgan now expects at approximately $9.5 billion, up from $3.3 billion in 2025 .
NII excluding Markets—the core lending and deposit business—remains unchanged at approximately $95 billion, still up from $92.6 billion last year .
| Metric | 2025 Actual | 2026 Guidance | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total NII | $95.9B | $104.5B | +9.0% |
| NII ex. Markets | $92.6B | $95B | +2.6% |
| Markets NII | $3.3B | $9.5B | +188% |
| Adjusted Expense | $91.1B | $105B | +15% |
| Card NCO Rate | 3.31% | 3.4% | +9 bps |
The bank maintained its through-the-cycle ROTCE target of 17%, though it acknowledged 2026 ROTCE will likely come in below the 20% delivered in 2025—its eighth consecutive year above the 17% threshold .
Ask Fintool AI AgentBank Stocks Crushed on AI Fears, Tariffs
The positive guidance did little to stem the bleeding in JPMorgan shares, which closed at $297.67—down 4.22% on the day. The selloff extended across the entire financial sector, which dropped 3% in what's shaping up to be its worst session since April 2025.
The sector turmoil was ignited by a viral research note from Citrini Research that outlined a dystopian 2028 scenario where AI "exceeded every expectation"—leading to mass unemployment and a 38% market crash. The note, which garnered 17 million views on X over the weekend, specifically flagged wealth managers, real estate firms, and logistics companies as vulnerable to AI disruption .
Compounding the pressure, President Trump announced Saturday he would raise global tariffs to 15% from 10%, one day after the Supreme Court struck down a broad swath of his trade agenda .
| Bank | Price | Change | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan Chase | $297.67 | -4.22% | $810B |
| Bank of America | $51.07 | -3.75% | $373B |
| Wells Fargo | $85.15 | -4.00% | $267B |
| Citigroup | $110.75 | -4.52% | $198B |
| Goldman Sachs | $892.31 | -3.25% | $270B |
| Morgan Stanley | $166.80 | -4.91% | $265B |
Source: Market data
Defending the $105 Billion Expense Base
Dimon used the forum to justify JPMorgan's substantial spending plans, which have drawn scrutiny from investors concerned about near-term returns .
The 2026 expense outlook of ~$105 billion represents growth across several categories :
- Bankers, Advisors, Branches: +$0.8B for continued hiring and network expansion
- Volume & Revenue-Related: +$0.6B tied to growth in customer accounts and activity
- Technology: +$0.5B for business applications, AI/ML, and infrastructure
- Marketing: +$0.4B primarily for Card products with "predictable payback"
- Real Estate: +$0.3B for modernizing locations and supporting headcount growth
Notably, approximately 25% of the technology expense increase is AI-related, as JPMorgan accelerates investments in machine learning across fraud detection, coding efficiency, and customer service .
Ask Fintool AI AgentSegment Performance: Record Results in 2025
JPMorgan's Company Update 2026 presentation highlighted exceptional performance across all three business segments in 2025 :
| Segment | ROE | Revenue Growth | Key Achievements |
|---|---|---|---|
| CCB (Consumer & Community Banking) | 32% | +6% | 94mm customers, 17.5% card share |
| CIB (Commercial & Investment Bank) | 18% | +12% | #1 IB fees (8.4%), #1 Markets (11.8%) |
| AWM (Asset & Wealth Management) | 40% | +12% | Record $553B client flows, $7.1T AUM |
The firm achieved $186 billion in total revenue for 2025—its 10th consecutive year of growth—and $57 billion in net income (+8% YoY), translating to diluted EPS of $20.02 .
Markets revenue reached record levels, with the #1 franchise in both FICC ($22.5B) and Equities ($13.3B) . Investment Banking fees captured 8.4% market share, while Treasury Services hit 10.0% share .
Apple Card Integration and Credit Outlook
The presentation addressed JPMorgan's acquisition of Apple Card, noting that reserves were established in Q4 2025 and will be remeasured quarterly. Management emphasized that the subprime percentage of the portfolio is "not expected to materially change" pro forma .
For 2026, JPMorgan expects Card net charge-offs of approximately 3.4%, up modestly from 3.31% in 2025, assuming :
- Favorable delinquency trends from continued consumer resilience
- Stable economic environment
- Unemployment rate around current mid-4% levels
The bank maintains a "fortress balance sheet" with $1.5 trillion in cash and marketable securities, $449 billion in available borrowing capacity, and a 14.6% standardized CET1 ratio .
Ask Fintool AI AgentLooking Ahead: Cautious Optimism
Management described 2026 as a year of "cautious optimism," citing supportive macro conditions and low unemployment, but warning of persistent risks including :
- Persistent inflation
- Geopolitical risks
- Softening labor market
- Global fiscal deficits
- Elevated asset prices
- Intensifying competition
The bank remains prepared to navigate various macroeconomic scenarios, with management noting JPMorgan can deliver strong ROTCE "across a range of conditions" .
For investors, the disconnect between JPMorgan's raised guidance and Monday's stock selloff underscores the market's current fixation on AI disruption narratives—even as the bank itself doubles down on AI investments to enhance its competitive moat.