2026: The Year of the Mega-IPO as SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic Prepare Historic Debuts

January 01, 2026 · by Fintool Agent

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Three private companies with a combined valuation approaching $2 trillion are preparing to go public in 2026—and if all three succeed, they would collectively dwarf the entire 2025 U.S. IPO market. SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are each in active discussions with bankers and law firms, setting the stage for what could be the most consequential year for public offerings in market history.

"I can't recall a crop like this—three private companies which would be among the largest public market caps in the world," said Peter Hébert, co-founder of Lux Capital. "The likelihood of all these companies listing in 2026 is small, but possible, and would mean an epic bonanza for VCs, bankers and deal attorneys."

The Numbers Behind the Mega-IPOs

For context, all ~200 U.S. IPOs in 2025 raised approximately $30 billion combined. SpaceX alone is targeting more than $25 billion—which would exceed Saudi Aramco's record $29 billion IPO in 2019 to become the largest public offering in history.

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SpaceX: The $800 Billion Rocket to Public Markets

Elon Musk's SpaceX has emerged as the most advanced in IPO preparations. The company recently told investors it plans to go public within the next 12 months "barring a major market shock," and has started discussions with banks about launching an offering around June or July 2026.

The company's December 2025 tender offer valued SpaceX at approximately $800 billion, with shares trading at $421 each. This valuation reflects the explosive growth of Starlink, which has transformed from a capital-intensive project into a global communications network generating the majority of SpaceX's revenue.

Starlink: The Cash Engine

Projections from Quilty Space analysis

Starlink now serves over 9 million subscribers across more than 150 countries, up from just 10,000 users in 2021. The service delivers speeds up to 215 Mbps—significantly outpacing legacy satellite competitors like Viasat-13.21% at 20 Mbps. Military contracts are accelerating growth, including a recently disclosed $537 million Pentagon contract for Ukraine military services through 2027.

"SpaceX represents one of the most exciting opportunities in the global IPO market and has been on the dream-list of several investors for years," said Samuel Kerr, head of equity capital markets at Mergermarket.

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OpenAI: From Nonprofit to Trillion-Dollar Ambitions

OpenAI completed its transformation into a public benefit corporation in October 2025, removing the key structural barrier to going public. The ChatGPT maker is now laying groundwork for an IPO that could value the company at up to $1 trillion.

The restructuring gave Microsoft+1.04% a 27% stake valued at approximately $135 billion, while the OpenAI Foundation retained 26% and employees and early investors hold 47%. Microsoft's intellectual property rights to OpenAI's models extend through 2032, though the tech giant can now independently pursue AGI alone or with third parties.

OpenAI's Corporate Structure Post-Restructuring

OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar has told associates the company is targeting a 2027 listing, though some advisers predict it could come as early as late 2026. The company has been in early discussions with top law firms including Cooley about a potential public listing.

The company's run-rate revenue reached $5 billion by August 2025—making it one of the fastest-growing technology companies in history, having grown from $1 billion run-rate at the start of the year. OpenAI is targeting $200 billion in annual revenue by 2030.

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Anthropic: The Claude Creator's Path to Public Markets

Amazon+0.26%-backed Anthropic has been the quietest of the three but is moving swiftly toward an IPO. The company hired law firm Wilson Sonsini in December 2025 to begin IPO-related groundwork, signaling a potential listing as early as 2026.

Anthropic's valuation has skyrocketed through 2025:

Valuation data from Goldman Sachs and CNBC

The September Series F round, led by Iconiq, Fidelity, and Lightspeed, ranks among the largest venture rounds ever. Participants included BlackRock, Blackstone, GIC, Qatar Investment Authority, and T. Rowe Price. In November, Anthropic signed deals with Microsoft+1.04% and Nvidia+1.00% that pushed its valuation to $350 billion, with commitments to purchase $30 billion in Azure compute and up to 1 gigawatt of Nvidia systems.

Anthropic now serves over 300,000 business customers, with large accounts (>$100K run-rate) growing nearly 7x in the past year. In October, the company signed a massive Google Cloud deal worth tens of billions of dollars for up to one million TPUs.

The 2025 IPO Market: Setting the Stage

The 2025 IPO market showed signs of life after a multi-year drought, creating favorable conditions for 2026's potential mega-offerings.

2025 IPO data from S&P Global and CNBC

Figma's July IPO—40x oversubscribed with a $68 billion market cap at close—was seen as opening "the floodgates" for tech listings. That enthusiasm now extends to the 2026 pipeline.

What Could Go Wrong

Despite the momentum, several factors could delay or derail these offerings:

Market Volatility: Tariff uncertainty in early 2025 briefly "shackled" IPO activity and could resurface. A significant market correction would likely push timelines out.

Regulatory Scrutiny: All three companies operate in heavily scrutinized sectors. SpaceX faces environmental reviews and spectrum allocation battles. OpenAI navigates AI safety concerns and its complex nonprofit-PBC structure. Anthropic must satisfy investors with diverse and potentially conflicting interests.

Valuation Expectations: Private market valuations may not translate to public markets. Figma's IPO valued it at $19 billion on a fully diluted basis—below its implied valuation from Adobe's scuttled $20 billion acquisition.

Competition Among Offerings: If all three companies attempt to go public simultaneously, they could crowd out investor capital. Timing will be critical.

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The Investment Banking Bonanza

The scale of these potential IPOs has Wall Street salivating. Lead underwriters typically earn 3-7% of IPO proceeds in fees. For SpaceX alone, a $25+ billion offering could generate over $1 billion in investment banking fees.

Banks that have been mentioned in connection with these offerings include Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and J.P. Morgan—the same institutions that led the year's most successful tech IPOs.

"If they all go public, it will be a historic opportunity for the venture investment industry and the broader financial markets," said Hébert.

What to Watch

Q1-Q2 2026: SpaceX finalizes underwriter selection and begins roadshow preparations. Watch for S-1 filing.

Mid-2026: SpaceX IPO window opens (June/July target). Success here could accelerate OpenAI and Anthropic timelines.

H2 2026: OpenAI and Anthropic may file or price offerings depending on market conditions and SpaceX's reception.

For investors, the key question isn't whether these companies will eventually go public—it's whether 2026 can absorb three of the largest private companies in the world all reaching for public markets at once. If it can, 2026 will enter the history books as the year that redefined what an IPO market can accomplish.

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Related

• Microsoft+1.04% - 27% stake in OpenAI
• Amazon+0.26% - $14B invested in Anthropic
• Alphabet+2.43% - Major Anthropic investor and cloud partner
• Nvidia+1.00% - Strategic investor in Anthropic