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    Zoetis Inc (ZTS)

    Board Change

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    Zoetis Inc. is a global leader in the animal health industry, specializing in the discovery, development, manufacture, and commercialization of a wide range of products and services for animal health . The company offers medicines, vaccines, diagnostic products and services, biodevices, genetic tests, and precision animal health solutions for both companion animals and livestock across eight core species, including dogs, cats, horses, cattle, swine, poultry, fish, and sheep . Zoetis operates through two geographic segments, the United States and International, and markets its products directly to veterinarians and livestock producers in about 45 countries, while also contracting with distributors in regions where it does not have a direct commercial presence .

    1. Parasiticides - Provides treatments to protect animals from parasites, ensuring their health and well-being.
    2. Vaccines - Develops and manufactures vaccines to prevent diseases in various animal species.
    3. Dermatology - Offers products for the treatment and management of skin conditions in animals.
    4. Other Pharmaceuticals - Includes a range of pharmaceutical products for various health conditions in animals.
    5. Anti-infectives - Supplies medications to treat infections in animals, promoting recovery and health.
    6. Animal Health Diagnostics - Delivers diagnostic products and services to detect and monitor animal health issues.
    7. Medicated Feed Additives - Produces additives for animal feed to enhance health and growth.
    Initial Price$173.26July 1, 2024
    Final Price$194.42October 1, 2024
    Price Change$21.16
    % Change+12.21%

    What went well

    • Zoetis has a strong history of outperforming the market by 3 percentage points on average over a decade and is very confident in continuing to outperform the industry due to its robust existing portfolio and continuous investment in innovation.
    • Key products like APOQUEL demonstrate impressive growth, with 16% growth in the quarter, driven by 11 years of safety, 90% satisfaction rates, and significant market opportunity with millions of untreated or undertreated dogs.
    • Alternative channels are significant growth drivers for Zoetis, up 34% year-over-year in the quarter, reducing dependency on clinic visits and driving higher compliance.

    What went wrong

    • Concerns about Zoetis' ability to maintain above-industry average sales growth based solely on current on-market products without contributions from the pipeline or business development, which could impact long-term growth sustainability.
    • Increased competition in key product areas, such as new entrants challenging Apoquel (e.g., Zynrelia), could slow down growth or require additional promotional activities, impacting profitability.
    • Declining veterinary clinic visits may affect prescription growth for Zoetis' products, as initial prescriptions often occur during visits, possibly necessitating increased promotional efforts in alternative channels that could affect margins.

    Q&A Summary

    1. 2025 Growth Outlook
      Q: What are the growth drivers and headwinds for 2025?
      A: Management is confident in continuing to outperform the animal health market in 2025, with several sources of growth, including strong demand across key franchises like dermatology and Simparica Trio. Despite anticipating more normalized pricing, they expect pricing contributions slightly above their historical rate of 2–3%. They also foresee China becoming more normalized, reducing this year's headwinds. The removal of MFAs will impact comparisons, as they will be cycling three and a half quarters of MFA revenue in 2024.

    2. Impact of MFA Divestiture
      Q: How will the MFA divestiture affect 2025 financials?
      A: The MFA business, which generated approximately $400 million in revenue last year with about 30% margins, is being divested. This will affect 2025 financials as the company will be comping against three and a half quarters of MFA revenue from 2024. Management provided seasonality details, noting it's roughly linear, and advised that the impact can be calculated based on the provided figures.

    3. Pricing Strategy Confidence
      Q: Can you maintain above-average price increases next year?
      A: Management is confident in their ability to continue taking price increases, focusing on product-by-product differentiation and the value their innovations bring. Excluding Argentina, they have achieved price growth of 4.5% to 5% across their portfolio this year, contributing to significant volume growth. They believe this approach, along with their diverse and innovative portfolio, supports ongoing pricing power despite competitive and macroeconomic factors.

    4. Competition Impact on Apoquel
      Q: How will new competition affect Apoquel's growth?
      A: Management remains very confident in Apoquel's continued growth despite new competition like Zynrelia. They highlight Apoquel's 11 years of safety, high satisfaction rates around 90%, and strong efficacy. The focus will be on growing the category, addressing under-treated dogs, and maintaining current promotional strategies without significant changes due to competition.

    5. Simparica Trio Performance
      Q: Why is Simparica Trio outperforming amid competition?
      A: Simparica Trio continues to excel, being the #1 prescribed parasiticide and used in over 13 million dogs. Its global growth of 27% is attributed to its first-mover advantage, comprehensive coverage, convenience as a chewable, and effective commercial execution, including leveraging alternative channels, which now account for about 20% of sales. Management expects strong momentum to continue into 2025, with the market expanding as new entrants promote the oral flea, tick, and heartworm segment.

    6. Sustaining Above-Industry Growth
      Q: Can you maintain growth without new pipeline contributions?
      A: Management is confident in sustaining above-industry growth based on their existing portfolio and continued lifecycle innovation. They emphasize their history of outperforming the market by 3 percentage points on average over a decade. Building and expanding markets through innovation and defending established standards of care contribute to the resilience of their growth strategy.

    7. Librela's Growth Prospects
      Q: What are the expectations for Librela's sales progression?
      A: Librela is the company's most successful launch, achieving 123% global growth and reaching 1 million patients in the first 12 months. With an 85% penetration rate in the U.S. and over 90% globally, there's significant runway for growth, considering 8 million dogs are still on NSAIDs. Management expects continued strong growth into next year, although they note seasonal trends with peaks in Q2 and variations in subsequent quarters.

    Guidance Changes

    Annual guidance for FY 2024:

    • Revenue: $9.2 billion to $9.3 billion (raised from $9.1 billion to $9.25 billion )
    • Adjusted Net Income: $2.67 billion to $2.695 billion (raised from $2.64 billion to $2.69 billion )
    • Adjusted Diluted EPS: $5.86 to $5.92 (raised from $5.78 to $5.88 )
    • Reported Diluted EPS: $5.33 to $5.39 (lowered from $5.35 to $5.45 )
    NamePositionStart DateShort Bio
    Kristin C. PeckChief Executive Officer and DirectorJanuary 2020Kristin C. Peck has been the CEO of Zoetis since January 2020 and a Director since October 2019. She played a significant role in Zoetis's IPO in 2013 and has held various executive roles within the company .
    Wetteny JosephExecutive Vice President and Chief Financial OfficerJune 2021Wetteny Joseph joined Zoetis as EVP and CFO in June 2021. He previously worked at Catalent and held senior financial positions at HD Supply and Hughes Supply .
    Nick AshtonExecutive Vice President and President, Global Manufacturing and SupplyMay 2022Nick Ashton has been EVP and President of Global Manufacturing and Supply since May 2022. He joined Zoetis in 2020 and has over 25 years of experience in production and supply chain management .
    Ester BanqueExecutive Vice President and President, U.S. OperationsJuly 2023Ester Banque started as EVP and President of U.S. Operations in July 2023. She joined from Bristol-Meyers Squibb and has extensive experience from her time at Novartis .
    Jamie BrannanExecutive Vice President and Chief Commercial OfficerNovember 11, 2024Jamie Brannan was appointed EVP and Chief Commercial Officer on November 11, 2024. He has been with Zoetis since 2016 and previously served as EVP and Group President of International Operations, Aquaculture, and Global Diagnostics .
    Heidi C. ChenExecutive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate SecretaryOctober 2012Heidi C. Chen has been EVP and General Counsel since October 2012 and Corporate Secretary since July 2012. She oversees the Human Health Diagnostics business since January 2020 .
    Rimma DriscollExecutive Vice President and Head of Global Strategy, Commercial and Business DevelopmentNovember 2022Rimma Driscoll has been EVP and Head of Global Strategy since November 2022. She joined Zoetis in 2016 and has held various roles in business development .
    Jeannette Ferran AstorgaExecutive Vice President, Corporate Affairs, Communications and Chief Sustainability OfficerJanuary 2022Jeannette Ferran Astorga has been EVP, Corporate Affairs, Communications and Chief Sustainability Officer since January 2022. She joined Zoetis in September 2020 as VP, Head of Sustainability .
    Roxanne LaganoExecutive Vice President, Chief Human Resources Officer and Global OperationsNovember 2012Roxanne Lagano has been EVP and Chief Human Resources Officer since November 2012. She took on additional responsibilities for Global Operations and Security in January 2020 .
    Wafaa MamilliExecutive Vice President, Chief Digital & Technology Officer and Group President for China, Brazil and Precision Animal HealthNovember 2022Wafaa Mamilli has been EVP, Chief Digital & Technology Officer since November 2022. She joined Zoetis from Eli Lilly and Company .
    Robert J. PolzerExecutive Vice President and President, Research and DevelopmentJanuary 2022Robert J. Polzer has been EVP and President of Research and Development since January 2022. He joined Zoetis in 2015 and has over 20 years of experience with Pfizer .
    Keith SarbaughExecutive Vice President and Chief Digital & Technology OfficerNovember 11, 2024Keith Sarbaugh was promoted to EVP and Chief Digital & Technology Officer on November 11, 2024. He joined Zoetis in March 2023 and has nearly 25 years of technology leadership experience .
    Jared ShriverPresident, U.S. OperationsNovember 11, 2024Jared Shriver was promoted to President, U.S. Operations on November 11, 2024. He has been with Zoetis for nearly 20 years, holding various commercial roles .
    Gavin D.K. HattersleyMember of the Board of Directors, Corporate Governance and Sustainability CommitteeApril 2024Gavin D.K. Hattersley has been a Director at Zoetis since April 2024. He is also the President and CEO of Molson Coors Beverage Company .
    1. Given the anticipated entry of new competitors in the dermatology space, particularly those with products carrying boxed warnings, what specific strategies is Zoetis implementing to defend market share for Apoquel and Cytopoint, and how might these strategies affect your promotional activities?

    2. With the growth of alternative channels like retail and home delivery contributing significantly to sales (alternative channels were up 34% year-on-year in Q3), how is Zoetis adapting its sales and marketing strategy to address the shift away from traditional veterinary clinic visits, and what impact do you expect this to have on your relationships with veterinarians?

    3. Considering that price contributed 6% to your 14% operational revenue growth in Q3 and that you anticipate the recent tailwinds from higher inflation to normalize, how do you plan to sustain your revenue growth as price-driven gains potentially decrease?

    4. The MFA divestiture is expected to impact your Q4 revenue growth by reflecting a reduction of U.S. and international sales; can you elaborate on the magnitude of this impact and discuss the strategies you have in place to mitigate any negative effects on your overall financial performance?

    5. You mentioned that headwinds in China have had approximately a 1% unfavorable impact on growth this year; could you provide more details on the specific challenges you're facing in the Chinese market and how you plan to address them to normalize growth in 2025?

    Program DetailsProgram 1Program 2
    Approval DateDecember 2021 August 2024
    End Date/DurationMulti-year Multi-year
    Total additional amount$3.5 billion Up to $6 billion
    Remaining authorization$200 million $6,199,536,894
    DetailsShares repurchased at management's discretion Shares repurchased at management's discretion

    Q3 2024 Earnings Call

    • Issued Period: Q3 2024
    • Guided Period: FY 2024
    • Guidance:
      • Revenue: $9.2 billion to $9.3 billion (10% to 11% operational growth) .
      • Adjusted Net Income: $2.67 billion to $2.695 billion (13.5% to 14.5% operational growth) .
      • Adjusted Diluted EPS: $5.86 to $5.92 .
      • Reported Diluted EPS: $5.33 to $5.39 .

    Q2 2024 Earnings Call

    • Issued Period: Q2 2024
    • Guided Period: FY 2024
    • Guidance:
      • Revenue: $9.1 billion to $9.25 billion (9% to 11% operational growth) .
      • Adjusted Net Income: $2.64 billion to $2.69 billion (13.5% to 15.5% operational growth) .
      • Adjusted Diluted EPS: $5.78 to $5.88 .
      • Reported Diluted EPS: $5.35 to $5.45 .

    Q1 2024 Earnings Call

    • Issued Period: Q1 2024
    • Guided Period: FY 2024
    • Guidance:
      • Revenue: $9.05 billion to $9.20 billion (8.5% to 10.5% operational growth) .
      • Adjusted Net Income: $2.62 billion to $2.67 billion (13% to 15% operational growth) .
      • Adjusted Diluted EPS: $5.71 to $5.81 .
      • Reported Diluted EPS: $5.34 to $5.44 .
      • Simparica Trio: Double-digit operational growth .
      • Key Dermatology Products: High single-digit growth .

    Q4 2023 Earnings Call

    • Issued Period: Q4 2023
    • Guided Period: FY 2024
    • Guidance:
      • Revenue: $9.075 billion to $9.225 billion (7% to 9% operational growth) .
      • Adjusted Net Income: $2.65 billion to $2.70 billion (9% to 11% operational growth) .
      • Adjusted Diluted EPS: $5.74 to $5.84 .
      • Reported Diluted EPS: $5.34 to $5.44 .
      • Adjusted Gross Margin: Approximately 29.5% of revenue .
      • Adjusted SG&A Expenses: $2.17 billion to $2.22 billion .
      • Adjusted R&D Expenses: $665 million to $675 million .
      • Adjusted Interest Expense and Other Income and Deductions: Approximately $210 million .
      • Adjusted Effective Tax Rate: 20% to 21% .
      • Capital Expenditures: $800 million to $850 million .
      • Foreign Exchange Impact: Negative impact on net revenue growth by 90 basis points and adjusted net income growth by 150 basis points .

    Competitors mentioned in the company's latest 10K filing.

    • Boehringer Ingelheim Animal Health Inc. - The animal health division of Boehringer Ingelheim GmbH .
    • Merck Animal Health - The animal health division of Merck & Co., Inc. .
    • Elanco Animal Health .
    • IDEXX Laboratories .
    • Several new start-up companies working in the animal health area .

    Recent developments and announcements about ZTS.

    Corporate Leadership

      Board Change

      ·
      Nov 12, 2024, 12:00 AM

      Jamie Brannan has been appointed to the newly created role of Chief Commercial Officer, effective immediately. He will oversee all commercial markets globally .

      Leadership Change

      ·
      Nov 12, 2024, 12:00 AM

      Leaving:

      • Ester Banque, currently Executive Vice President and President, U.S. Operations, will leave to pursue other opportunities. She will serve in an advisory capacity until early 2025 to ensure a smooth transition .
      • Wafaa Mamilli, currently Executive Vice President, Chief Digital & Technology Officer and Group President for China, Brazil and Precision Animal Health, will leave in early 2025 to pursue an external opportunity .

      Stepping Up:

      • Jamie Brannan has been appointed to the newly created role of Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, overseeing all commercial markets globally .
      • Jared Shriver has been promoted to President, U.S. Operations, effective immediately, and will report to Mr. Brannan .
      • Keith Sarbaugh has been promoted to Executive Vice President and Chief Digital & Technology Officer, effective immediately .