GE Vernova Crushes Q4, Raises 2026 Guidance as Data Center Power Demand Surges
January 29, 2026 · by Fintool Agent
Ge Vernova+0.82% delivered a blowout fourth quarter, with adjusted EPS of $13.39 crushing the $3.05 consensus estimate by 315%—the largest beat among major industrials this earnings season. The power generation giant raised 2026 guidance, doubled its dividend, and expanded its buyback authorization to $10 billion as gas turbine and grid equipment demand accelerates on the back of the AI data center buildout.
Revenue of $11.0 billion topped estimates of $10.29 billion by 6.5%, while orders surged 65% year-over-year to $22.2 billion—a book-to-bill ratio of roughly 2x. The company ended 2025 with a $150 billion backlog, up 25% from year-end 2024 and 50% higher than when GE announced the spin-off in late 2021.
"We are executing well in the early stages of our multi-year growth trajectory," CEO Scott Strazik said on the earnings call. "Just over 4 years ago, we announced our separation from GE, and today, our backlog is 50% larger than it was upon the time of the spin announcement."
Ask Fintool AI AgentThe Gas Power Supercycle
The headline story is gas turbines. GE Vernova's gas power equipment backlog and slot reservation agreements jumped from 62 GW to 83 GW sequentially—a 34% increase in a single quarter—as utilities, hyperscalers, and industrial customers scramble to secure power generation capacity.
"In 4Q, gas power equipment backlog and slot reservation agreements increased from 62 GW to 83 GW sequentially, primarily due to strong U.S. demand, but also with agreements in the Middle East, Vietnam, and Taiwan," Strazik said. "We expect to reach approximately 100 GW under contract in 2026."
| Metric | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gas Turbine Backlog + SRAs | 62 GW | 83 GW | +34% |
| Equipment Backlog Margin | — | +11 pts vs 2024 | — |
| Power Services Backlog | $65B | $70B | +8% |
Crucially, pricing continues to accelerate. Strazik noted that slot reservation agreements are pricing 10-20% higher than the existing backlog, with strong demand allowing GE Vernova to capture value as customers compete for limited capacity.
"When we look at where we're trending with our slot reservation agreements today versus our existing backlog, there's another 10-20 points of pricing strength in the SRAs today," Strazik said.
By year-end 2026, management expects both 2029 and 2030 capacity to be "largely sold out" as the company ramps annual production capacity to approximately 20 GW starting mid-year.
Electrification: The Data Center Beneficiary
The Electrification segment—grid equipment, transformers, switchgear, and HVDC—posted its best quarter in company history, with orders of $7.4 billion (2.5x revenue) and EBITDA margin expanding 320 basis points to 17.1%.
Data centers are driving the boom. GE Vernova signed over $2 billion in orders directly for data center projects in 2025—more than triple the 2024 total.
"Of note, over $2 billion of electrification orders were signed directly for data centers in 2025, more than triple the 2024 total," Strazik noted.
The Prolec GE acquisition, closing February 2, adds roughly $3 billion in annual revenue from distribution transformers—a critical bottleneck for data center builds. Management sees significant opportunities to optimize the five transformer factories being acquired and expand capacity to meet surging demand.
"Electrification generated about $5 billion in revenue in 2022, and we now expect that number to be $13.5 billion-$14 billion in 2026, and we are just getting started," Strazik said. "Our addressable market today with the products we sell is directionally $150 billion. So we're at, like, 10% of our directional market."
Ask Fintool AI AgentWind: The Drag That's Easing
The Wind segment remains a headwind, posting a $225 million EBITDA loss in Q4 and $600 million for the full year—worse than the ~$400 million loss management expected in December due to a U.S. government stop-work order on offshore wind projects issued December 22.
The Vineyard Wind project was impacted just as GE Vernova was approaching completion, with only 11 of 62 turbines remaining to be installed. An injunction was granted January 28, potentially allowing work to resume, but the timeline remains uncertain.
| Wind Segment | FY 2025 | 2026 Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.5B | Down low double digits |
| EBITDA | ($600M) | ($400M) |
| Onshore Orders | Soft (permitting, tariff uncertainty) | 70% of shipments in 2H |
However, management expects Wind to achieve profitability in the second half of 2026 as higher-margin orders signed later in 2025 ship and offshore losses roll off.
Raised Guidance and Capital Returns
GE Vernova raised 2026 guidance to reflect the Prolec acquisition:
| Metric | Prior Guidance | New Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $41-42B | $44-45B |
| Adj. EBITDA Margin | 11-13% | 11-13% (unchanged) |
| Free Cash Flow | $4.5-5.0B | $5.0-5.5B |
By 2028, management now projects at least $56 billion in revenue (up from $52 billion), 20% EBITDA margins, and cumulative free cash flow of $24 billion from 2025-2028.
The company also announced:
- Dividend doubled for 2026 versus 2025
- Buyback authorization increased to $10 billion from $6 billion
- $3.6 billion returned to shareholders in 2025, including 8 million shares repurchased
Why the Stock Was Flat
Despite the massive beat, GE Vernova shares were essentially flat on Thursday, up less than 1% to around $717.
The muted reaction likely reflects:
-
Expectations were high: The stock has nearly tripled from its 52-week low of $252.25 to trade near all-time highs above $720.
-
Tax benefit noise: The $2.9 billion one-time tax benefit from releasing a U.S. valuation allowance artificially inflated the EPS print. Adjusted EBITDA margin of 10.6% was solid but not extraordinary.
-
Wind overhang: The offshore wind stop-work order added uncertainty, and onshore wind orders remain soft due to permitting delays and tariff risks.
-
Broader market headwinds: The tech selloff sparked by Microsoft-9.99% earnings created a risk-off environment, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both lower.
Ask Fintool AI AgentWhat to Watch
Near-term catalysts:
- Prolec GE integration (closing Feb 2): Transformer capacity expansion for data centers
- Gas turbine production ramp: Substantial step-up in output expected Q3 2026
- Vineyard Wind resolution: Ability to complete remaining 11 turbines by end of March depends on regulatory clarity
Longer-term opportunities:
- SMR nuclear: GE Vernova is building its first small modular reactor at Darlington, Ontario, with meaningful revenue contribution expected "next decade"
- Solid-state transformers: First unit completed, testing through summer 2026 before delivery to a hyperscaler customer
- AI and automation investments: Expected to contribute margin expansion starting in 2027, accelerating into 2028
GE Vernova enters 2026 as one of the clearest beneficiaries of the AI infrastructure buildout. With 83 GW of gas turbine capacity under contract, $150 billion in backlog, and expanding margins across its core businesses, the company is well-positioned to convert the power generation supercycle into sustained profitable growth.
"We enter 2026 pumped up about the company we are creating," Strazik concluded. "There's a lot of work to do. We're ready to do that work."
Related Companies: