Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company - Q1 2023

Transcript

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

[Foreign Language] 大 家 午 安 。 我 是 台 积 电 法 人 关 系 处 的 苏智凯 。 欢 迎 您 参 加 台 积 公 司 2023 年 第 一 季 的 法 人 说 明 会 。 由 于 本 法 说 会 是 向 全 球 投 资 人 同 时 连 线 转 播 ， 所 以 我 们 会 全 程 使 用 英 文 ， 请 您 见 谅 。

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to TSMC's first quarter 2023 earnings conference call. This is Jeff Su, TSMC's Director of Investor Relations, and your host for today. TSMC is hosting our earnings conference call via live audio webcast through the company's website at www.tsmc.com, where you can also download the earnings release materials.

If you are joining us through the conference call, your dial-in lines are in the listen-only mode. The format for today's event will be as follows. First, TSMC's Vice President and CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, will summarize our operations in the first quarter 2023, followed by our guidance for the second quarter 2023. Afterwards, Mr. Huang and TSMC's CEO, Dr. C.C. Wei, will jointly provide the company's key messages. We will open the line for questions and answers. As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements. Please refer to the safe harbor notice that appears in our press release. Now I would like to turn the call over to TSMC's CFO, Mr.

Wendell Huang, for the summary of operations and the current quarter guidance.

Wendell Huang (VP and CFO)

Thank you, Jeff. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. My presentation will start with the financial highlights for the first quarter 2023. After that, I will provide the guidance for the second quarter 2023. First quarter revenue decreased 18.7% sequentially in TWD, or 16.1% in USD, as our first quarter business was impacted by weakening macroeconomic conditions and softening end market demand, which led customers to adjust their demand accordingly. Gross margin decreased 5.9 percentage points sequentially to 56.3%, mainly reflecting lower capacity utilization and a less favorable foreign exchange rate, partially offset by more stringent cost controls. Total operating expenses accounted for 10.8% of net revenue, which is lower than the 12% implied in our first quarter guidance, mainly due to stringent expense control and lower employee profit sharing.

Operating margin was 45.5%, down 6.5 percentage points from the previous quarter. Overall, our first quarter EPS was NT$7.98, and ROE was 27.5%. Let's move on to revenue by technology. Five-nanometer process technology contributed 31% of wafer revenue in the first quarter, while seven nanometer accounted for 20%. Advanced technologies, defined as seven nanometer and below, accounted for 51% of wafer revenue. Moving on to revenue contribution by platform. HPC declined 14% quarter-over-quarter and accounted for 44% of our first quarter revenue. Smartphone declines 27% to account for 34%. IoT declined 19% to account for 9%. Automotive increased 5% to account for 7%, and DCE decreased 5% to account for 2%. Moving on to the balance sheet.

We ended the first quarter with cash and marketable securities of TWD 1.59 trillion, or $52 billion. On the liability side, current liabilities decreased by TWD 71 billion, mainly due to the decrease of TWD 65 billion in accounts payable. On financial ratio, accounts receivable turnover days decreased two days to 34 days, while days of inventory increased 3 days to 96 days. Regarding cash flow and CapEx, during the first quarter, we generated about TWD 385 billion in cash from operations, spent TWD 302 billion in CapEx, and distributed TWD 71 billion for second quarter 2022 cash dividend. Overall, our cash balance increased TWD 42 billion to TWD 1.39 trillion at the end of the quarter. In US dollar terms, our first quarter capital expenditures total $9.94 billion. I have finished my financial summary.

Let's turn to our current quarter guidance. We expect our business in the second quarter to continue to be impacted by customers' further inventory adjustment. Based on the current business outlook, we expect our second quarter revenue to be between $15.2 billion and $16 billion, which represents a 6.7% sequential decline at the midpoint. Based on the exchange rate assumption of 1 US dollar to 30.4 NT, gross margin is expected to be between 52% and 54%. Operating margin between 39.5% and 41.5%. This concludes my financial presentation. Let me turn to our key messages. I will start by making some comments on our first quarter 2023 and second quarter 2023 profitability.

Compared to fourth quarter, our first quarter gross margin decreased by 590 basis points sequentially to 56.3%, primarily due to a lower capacity utilization. Compared to our first quarter guidance, our actual gross margin exceeded the high end of the range provided 3 months ago by 80 basis points, mainly due to more stringent cost control efforts. We have just guided our second quarter gross margin to be 53% at the midpoint, mainly due to a lower capacity utilization rate and higher electricity costs in Taiwan. After last year's electricity price increase of 15% in the H2 of 2022, TSMC's electricity price in Taiwan has increased by another 17% starting April 1st this year. This is expected to take out 60 basis points from our second quarter gross margin.

We expect the impact from higher electricity costs to continue throughout the H2 of this year and dilute our full year gross margin by about 50 basis points. In 2023, our gross margin faces challenges from lower capacity utilization due to semiconductor cyclicality, the ramp-up of N3, overseas fab expansion, and inflationary costs, including higher utility costs in Taiwan. To manage our profitability in 2023, we will work diligently on internal cost improvement efforts while continuing to sell our value. Excluding the impact of foreign exchange rate, which we have no control over, we continue to forecast a long-term gross margin of 53% and higher is achievable. Next, let me talk about 2023 capital budget. Every year, our CapEx is spent in anticipation of the growth that will follow in future years.

As I have stated before, given the near-term uncertainties, we continue to manage our business prudently and tighten up our capital spending where appropriate. That said, our commitment to support customers' structural growth remains unchanged, and our disciplined CapEx and capacity planning remains based on the long-term market demand profile. Thus, we expect our 2023 capital budget to be between $32 billion and $36 billion. With this level of CapEx spending in 2023, we reiterate that TSMC remains committed to a sustainable and steadily increasing cash dividend on both an annual and quarterly basis. We will continue to work closely with our customers to plan our long-term capacity and invest in leading edge and special growth while delivering profitable growth to our shareholders. Let me turn the microphone over to C.C.

C.C. Wei (CEO)

Thank you, Wendell. Good afternoon, everyone. First, let me start. Three months ago, we said we expect fabless semiconductor inventory to start gradually reducing 4Q 2022, and we forecast a sharper reduction throughout the H1 of 2023. Due to weakening macroeconomic conditions and softening end market demand, fabless semiconductor inventory continued to increase in the fourth quarter and exited 2022 at a much higher level than we expected. The recovery in end market demand from China's reopening is also lower than our expectation. The fabless semiconductor inventory adjustment in first half 2023 is taking longer than our prior expectation and may extend into third quarter this year before rebalancing to a healthier level.

For the full year of 2023, we lower our forecast for the semiconductor ex memory to decline mid-single digit %, while foundry industry is forecast to decline high single digit %. We now expect our full year 2023 revenue to decline low to mid-single digit % in US dollar terms and our business to do better than both semiconductor ex memory and foundry industries, supported by our strong technology leadership and differentiation. We conclude our first quarter with revenue of $6.7 billion, which is towards the lower end of our guidance range provided in US dollar terms. Moving into 2Q 2023, we expect our business to continue to be impacted by customers' further inventory adjustment.

We now expect our revenue in the first half of 2023 to decline by about 10% over the same period last year in U.S. dollar term as compared to mid-to-high single-digit % decline previously. We believe we are passing through the bottom of the cycle of TSMC business in the second quarter. We forecast only a gradual recovery for the semiconductor ex memory industry, TSMC's business in the second half of this year is expected to be stronger than the first half, supported by customers and new product launches. Let me talk about our N3 and N3E status. Our three nanometer technology is first in the semiconductor industry to high volume production with good yield.

As our customers' demand for N3 exceeds our ability to supply, we expect N3 to be fully utilized in 2023, supported by both HPC and smartphone applications. Sizable N3 rev is expected to start in third quarter 2023, and N3 will contribute mid-single digit % of our total wafer revenue in 2023. N3E will further extend power and yield and offer complete platform support for both HPC and smartphone applications. N3E has passed the qualification and achieved performance and yield targets, and volume production is scheduled for second half 2023. Despite the ongoing inventory correction, we continue to observe a high level of customer engagement at both N3 and N3E, with the number of tape outs more than 2X that of N5 in second year.

Our 3 nanometer technology is the most advanced semiconductor technology in both PPA and transistor technology. Thus, we expect customers a strong multi-year demand for our N3 technologies and are confident that our 3 nanometer family will be another large and long-lasting node for TSMC. Now I will talk about our N2 status. Our N2 technology development is progressing well and on track for volume production in 2025. Our N2 will adopt nanosheet transistor structure to provide our customers with the best per-performance, cost, and technology maturity. Our nanosheet technology has demonstrated excellent power efficiency, and our N2 will deliver full node performance and power benefits to address the increasing need for energy-efficient computing. At N2, we are observing a high level of customer interest and engagement from both HPC and the smartphone applications.

Our 2 nanometer technology will be the most advanced semiconductor technology in the industry in both density and energy efficiency when it is introduced and will further extend our technology leadership well into the future. Talent development status. As we have said before, we are expanding our global manufacturing footprint to increase customer trust, expand our future growth potential, and reach for more global talents. In Arizona, despite some challenges in obtaining permits, our first fab is scheduled to begin production of N4 processing technology in late 2024. In Japan, we are building a specialty technology fab and volume production is scheduled for late 2024. In Europe, we are engaging with customer and partners to evaluate the possibility of building a specialty fab, focusing on automotive-specific technologies based on the demand from customers and level of government support.

In China, we are expanding 28 nanometer in Nanjing as planned to support our customer in China. We continue to follow all rules and regulations fully. At the same time, we continue to invest in Taiwan and expand our capacity to support our customers' growth. In Kaohsiung, our fab construction continues. We have adjusted our previous 28 nanometer expansion plan to now focus on for more advanced nodes. We will remain flexible going forward. In terms of talent development, a key to TSMC's success is adherence to our core value of integrity, commitment, innovation, and customer trust, and our discipline and spirit of working together as one team.

In both the U.S. and Japan, we're recruiting from the top local colleges and universities, our progress is well on track. We have hired more than 900 U.S. employees today in Arizona and more than 370 in Japan. We also plan to hire more than 6,000 employees in Taiwan in 2023. All of our hirings are to support our future growth potential. In addition to providing extensive training program for new overseas employees, many of them are brought to Taiwan for hands-on experience in our labs so that they can further their technical skills while being immersed in TSMC's operation environment and culture.

As we expand our global footprint, our priority will continue to be identify, attract, and hire talent whose core values and principles are aligned with TSMC's, so that we can establish TSMC culture in all our employees no matter where we operate. This conclude our key message. Thank you for your attention.

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

Thank you, C.C. This concludes our prepared statements. Before we begin the Q&A session, I would like to remind everybody to please limit your questions to two at a time to allow all the participants an opportunity to ask their questions. Should you wish to raise your question in Chinese, I will translate it to English before our management answers your question. If you would like to ask a question, please press the star then one on your telephone keypad now. If at any time you would like to remove yourself from the questioning queue, please press star then two. Now let's begin the Q&A session. Operator, can we please proceed with the first caller on the line?

Operator (participant)

Jeff. The first one to ask question, Gokul Hariharan from J.P. Morgan.

Gokul Hariharan (Equity Research Analyst)

Good afternoon, thanks for taking my question. First of all, can I ask a bit about the near-term demand dynamics? Could you talk a little bit about what you're seeing by segments? Is the inventory correction trend largely similar across HPC, smartphone, IoT and auto, or are you seeing any different dynamics in these segments? Especially auto, you saw some shortage still in the last quarter. Maybe also talk a little bit about seven nanometer. Previously, we had an expectation seven nanometer will start recovering in second half of this year. Do we think seven nanometer will still be recovering in second half? That's my first question. Thank you.

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

Thank you, Gokul. Please allow me to summarize your first question. Gokul's first question is more focusing on the near-term dynamics. He wants to know basically about the inventory trend across different segments and also the end demand status across the different segments, including auto. Also what about particularly for TSMC, the seven nanometer status in terms of the utilization recovery.

C.C. Wei (CEO)

Okay. Gokul, let me answer the question. We observe the PC and smartphone market continue to be soft at the present time, while automotive demand is holding steady for TSMC. It is showing signs of softening into second half of 2023. I'm talking about automotive. On the other hand, we have recently observed incremental upside in AI-related demand, which helps the ongoing inventory digestion. What is the second question?

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

The second part is on seven nanometer. We had really previously said seven nanometer utilization is lower. Do we expect this to pick up or recover in the second half?

C.C. Wei (CEO)

It will be recover, but slowly. As I said, most of the N6, the N7s are technology loading still in HPC and smartphone. Looking into the future, the sum of the specialties such as RF, connectivity, Wi-Fi, all those kind of thing will start to build up their loading, their demand. We expect in the long term, seven nanometers loading will become more healthier. Did I answer the question?

Gokul Hariharan (Equity Research Analyst)

Yes, that's very clear. Thank you. My second question, I just wanted to get TSMC's opinion on competitive landscape. Your IDM competitor is getting into foundry. Intel has been claiming that they will be attaining process parity and then process leadership by 2025, and talking about engaging with several fabless companies. How does TSMC see this competitive threat? How do you benchmark TSMC N3 and N2, which is coming into 2025, with Intel's offerings over the next, let's say 2-3 years? Maybe, I think, TSMC has not commented about foundry market share for quite some time.

Could you talk a little bit about what you see N3 market share in the next couple of years for TSMC now that you're ramping up that node as well? Thank you.

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

Okay. Thank you, Gokul. Let me summarize your second question. A lot of it is related to the competitive landscape. I think Gokul's question is specifically in terms of a IDM That has been claiming they will achieve, you know, process parity in terms of technology with TSMC and absolute process leadership. He wants to know... And they're also talking about engaging with several large fabless customers. Gokul would like to know how do we see or comment on this competitive threat? How do we benchmark our N3 or our N2 process technologies versus this IDM's offerings for the next two to three years? Lastly, if we have any comment on our, what market share we believe we can achieve.

C.C. Wei (CEO)

That's a long question. Gokul, this is C.C. Wei again. Let me say that, as usual, we don't comment on our competitors' status. Let me emphasize again on our three nanometer and two nanometer. Our three nanometer is the first in the semiconductor industry to high volume production. I believe it is the most advanced semiconductor technology in both PPA and transistor technology. For two nanometer technology, that will again to be the most advanced semiconductor technology in the industry and when we introduce into mass production. This one, we've fully confident that we are further extend our leadership position well into the future. As for the market share, we are very confident that we continue to have a very high market share. I cannot tell you that real number, but very high percentage.

Gokul Hariharan (Equity Research Analyst)

Maybe if I ask. Thanks, C.C., for that. If I ask, if N3, your expectation that N3 market share will be higher than N5 at the same time, based on what you see today?

C.C. Wei (CEO)

Oh, very hard to answer your question, but let me say that it will very similar in a very high percentage.

Gokul Hariharan (Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. Thank you.

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

Okay. Thank you, Gokul. Operator, can we move on to the next participant, please?

Operator (participant)

The next one to ask question, Bruce Lu from Goldman Sachs.

Bruce Lu (Research Analyst)

Hi, thank you for taking my question. I wanna ask about AI. The machine learning AI, which management has been saying that is a key growth driver. Can we have more quantitative implication to TSMC? What is the dollar content per server or how big is the addressable market for TSMC in 2025? Is the reason new AI or ChatGPT, you know, the business already embedded in your long-term growth target, which is 15%-20%? Can we see some incremental upside?

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

Okay, Bruce. Thank you. Bruce's first question is around, I guess AI and machine learning. He wants to know if we have any quantitative numbers to give in terms of, for example, semiconductor content per server, dollar value, or in terms of the addressable TAM. How do we see this growth of this market, and have we already embedded this into our forecast? Is that correct, Bruce?

Bruce Lu (Research Analyst)

That's right. Thank you.

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

Okay.

C.C. Wei (CEO)

Hi, Bruce. Let me answer this question. We certainly, we have observed an incremental increase in AI-related demand. It also helped the ongoing inventory digestion. The trend is very positive for TSMC. Today, if you ask me to quantitatively to say that how much of the amount increase or what is the data content in the server, is too early to say. It's still continue to be developed. ChatGPT right now reinforce the already stronger conviction that we have in HPC and AI as a structurally mega trend for TSMC's business growth in the future. Whether this one has been included in our previous announcement, say that we have a 15%-20% CAGR.

The answer is probably partly yes, because of, for several, we have accelerated into our consideration. This ChatGPT, this large language model, is a new application. We haven't really have a kind of a number that put into our CAGR. It's definitely, as I said, it really in reinforce our already strong conviction that HPC and AI will give us a much higher opportunities in the future.

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

Okay, Bruce, does that answer your first question?

Bruce Lu (Research Analyst)

Okay. Thank you.

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

Yep. Sorry, go ahead.

Bruce Lu (Research Analyst)

Yes, thank you. Yes, I wanna move on to the different topic, which is cash dividends. I mean, TSMC distribute about like dividend policy was 70% of the free cash flow. We do see the free cash flow is getting stronger, especially the CapEx growth rate is slower, especially for next year. Can we expect TSMC to maintain the dividend policy, which is 70% of the free cash flow next year? Or we would like to improve our balance sheet, given the current rate hike environment?

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

Okay. Thank you, Bruce. Bruce's second question is around our cash dividend policy. He notes that in the past we have said our cash dividend will be based on 70% of free cash flow distribution. His question is, you know, as our CapEx is slowing, our free cash flow is growing stronger, do we still adhere to 70% of free cash flow? Because of the environment, are we more focused on, I think Bruce, in terms of maintaining a improving our balance sheet strength?

Wendell Huang (VP and CFO)

Okay, Bruce. This is Wendell.

Bruce Lu (Research Analyst)

Yeah.

Wendell Huang (VP and CFO)

Let me make a few comments on the dividends. TSMC is committed to a sustainable and steadily increasing dividends. During the periods of high capital intensity or high capital investment, more of the focus is on sustainable. When we start to capture and harvest the capital investments spent, the commitment is or the focus is more towards steadily increasing. Okay. The 70% ratio is a guidelines. Let me give you an example. If in the particular year, the free cash flow is much lower, because of higher CapEx or lower profits, then to maintain a sustainable dividends, the ratio of free cash flow to be dispersed, could be higher.

On the other hand, in a year where free cash flow is particularly high, the ratio can be 70%, but it can be lower because we need to look forward into the year behind that specific year and to make sure it is sustainable. Okay. Does that answer your question?

Bruce Lu (Research Analyst)

Yes. Yes. You know, but if we do see a comfortable range about the free trial, so we can still expect like reasonable high payout ratio, right?

C.C. Wei (CEO)

Yeah. Yeah. As I said, the principle is 70%, but it has to be sustainable and steadily increasing.

Bruce Lu (Research Analyst)

I see. Understand. Thank you.

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

Okay. Thank you, Bruce. operator, can we move on to the next participant, please?

Operator (participant)

Next one to ask question, Randy Abrams from Credit Suisse.

Randy Abrams (Managing Director and Head of Taiwan Research)

Okay. Yes, thank you. I wanted to ask a question just on the CapEx in 2 parts. First, as you look at the 3 nanometer, where you mentioned supply still short of demand and have a lot of applications coming in, do you have plans for potential reuse of 5 nanometer in the next 1 to 2 years as you bring up more of the 3 nanometer? The second part of the question, I wanted to ask more on that Kaohsiung fab shift. If you could go through why the plan to pull back on 28, and then what the intention for where you would shift that investment, because I know you did cancel the 7 nanometer for that line?

If you could discuss the change you're making to Kaohsiung, and does it affect the timing to ramp that fab?

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

Thank you, Randy. Randy's first question is kind of related to our CapEx and capacity plan. His question partly is in terms of, you know, C.C. noted that the N3 demand exceeds our ability to supply. He's asking, will we consider to reuse or convert N5 tools to N3 in the next few years? Also he wants to know, related to our plans in Kaohsiung, what is the thinking or the reasoning for pulling back on the 20 nanometer expansion in Kaohsiung?

C.C. Wei (CEO)

Okay, Randy. You got a very good question about whether we convert some of the N5's capacity to N3, because N3 today, we are short of support to our customer. Instead of saying that convert N5's capacity to N3, let me say that we de-develop a strategy and a methodology to make some of the N3's tool can be supported by N5. We take this kind of flexibility into our consideration so that we can fulfill our commitment to support our customer in N3 as much as possible. Although still not enough, but we are doing that. That answer the first part of your question. You ask about Kaohsiung's plan.

Let me say that we do, we look at the market situation today, and we are going to build initially the 28 nanometer, the demand is so high so that we have to put Kaohsiung into our consideration. However, you know, the market situation is so dynamic, and we look at our plan. One of the plan is in Japan, we build a new fab for 28 nanometer specialty. By the way, TSMC expand the mature nodes capacity all for specialties. We don't increase capacity just for pure logic application. That one, no, we don't do. In order to avoid some of the overcapacity. We build one in Japan. We also expanding our capacity, 28 nanometer capacity in Nanjing, that's the second one. We are considering of the Europe.

That might be the third one for automotive application. Put all three together, we don't think today that If we build 28 nanometer, probably it won't be, you know, a kind of financially feasible. We diverted, now adjusted it to become a more advanced node, which we are still in shortage. Kaohsiung is so close to Tainan, so that we can have a more flexibility in between. Randy, did that answer your question?

Randy Abrams (Managing Director and Head of Taiwan Research)

Yeah. No, that's helpful. It sounds like it'll be very much advanced capacity than like the five-three and below. Maybe I have one follow-up on the first question, is on the CapEx framework, would the expectation if your second half kinda rebound with the share gains comes through, considering the new node's more capital intensive, should we think of this CapEx having an up direction as we look ahead to next year?

Wendell Huang (VP and CFO)

Randy, allow this to be a follow-up, but Randy's question is basically, while considering the second half business will be stronger, I think Randy basically you're asking, we have provided the guidance range of between TWD 32 billion-TWD 36 billion, you're asking could that be upside or revised higher. Is that correct?

Randy Abrams (Managing Director and Head of Taiwan Research)

Yeah, more the framework into next year, since this is more kind of prudent management, a bit recessionary.

Wendell Huang (VP and CFO)

Right. Randy, let me answer that. As we stated before, every year our CapEx is spent for the opportunities in the future years. Although there are short-term cyclicality in the industry, We believe if the structure long-term demand is there, and the future opportunities is there, we will continue to invest. That will be the framework that we can provide to you. Okay, Randy?

Randy Abrams (Managing Director and Head of Taiwan Research)

Okay. Yeah.

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

Do you have any quick second question?

Randy Abrams (Managing Director and Head of Taiwan Research)

Yeah, I'll do the quick second. For 2 nanometer, if you could clarify the ramp, do you expect the steep ramp to be in 2025 or is it more 2026? Do you also view that ramp being much more with the SOIC, the back-end integration chiplet?

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

Randy, second question is on two nanometer. We have said volume production in 2025. Will the large volume be in 2025 or 2026 is part of this question. Does this mean it will go hand in hand, I guess, with SOIC in advanced packaging?

C.C. Wei (CEO)

Randy, let me answer the question. Two nanometer technology definitely will start to ramp in 2025. You ask about the volume. The volume in 2026 certainly is much higher than 2025 because 2025 is the first year. Saying that, I mean that we are having HPC customer and the smartphone customer now engage with the N2 and will be ramping up in 2025. Whether it's related to chiplets or not, it depends on customers' product and their plan.

Today I cannot share with you all those kind of minor details because they're related to customers' product plan.

Randy Abrams (Managing Director and Head of Taiwan Research)

Okay, great. Thank you, C.C.

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

Okay. Thank you, Randy. Operator, can we move on to the next participant, please?

Operator (participant)

The next one to ask question, Charlie Chan from Morgan Stanley. Go ahead, please.

Charlie Chan (Analyst)

Thanks for taking my question. Good afternoon, C.C. Wei, Wendell Huang, and Jeff Su. First of all, congrats for the first quarter gross margin, and great to hear that N3E, yield rate continue to improve. Let me stay with the CapEx question for a little bit as my first question. First of all, you know, the major equipment supplier, ASML, yesterday seems to suggest that EUV orders get pushed out a little bit. We all know that your company is a major user of the EUV. Can management answer the question, you know, first of all, whether the CapEx this year will be lower end of your guidance range?

For next year, whether your CapEx intensity would decline year-on-year given that EUV push out? Thank you.

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

Okay. Charlie's first question is related to CapEx. He points out that newspaper, you know, talks about EUV orders being pushed out. His question is really for our CapEx in 2023, do we think it will be towards the lower end of the range? Also, any indication for 2024 in terms of both CapEx and capital intensity? Is that correct, Charlie?

Charlie Chan (Analyst)

Yes. Thank you.

C.C. Wei (CEO)

Okay. Maybe Wendell can answer.

Wendell Huang (VP and CFO)

Yeah. Hi, Charlie, this is Wendell. First of all, we don't comment on specific suppliers or customers or competitors. Regarding this year's CapEx, when we gave out the CapEx range, $32 billion-$36 billion, we have already started or tightened up our 2023 capital budget. At this moment, we believe this range is appropriate and is prudent under today's economic environment. That range is still valid. For next year, it's too early to talk about next year, but as I just stated, if the CapEx spend this year will be for future years, CapEx spend next year will be for even future years. If we see the growth opportunities is there, we will continue to invest. That's the main policy or the principle that we have.

Charlie Chan (Analyst)

Yeah. Yeah. Thanks for the clarification. I guess the question is if, right? Whether those growth drivers still there, I mean, big customers outsourcing for 2024, and whether your customers are aggressively adopting your N3 and N2. I guess that's why we are concerned about whether 2024 you're reducing some CapEx. Anyway, let me shift to the next one. I think a lot of investors also quite interested about the U.S. Chips Act. I remember Chairman shared there's some concern about those requirements. I'm not sure which one is specifically a concern.

For example, a need to disclose customer information, profit sharing, some restriction for the future, China fab investments. My question is that how TSMC is going to reconcile your own interests versus the U.S. government's requirements. If it is hard to reconcile, whether TSMC would consider not to take U.S. government's grants. Thank you.

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

Okay. Charlie's second question is regarding the Chips Act. He notes, we have recently said that some of the terms may be not acceptable. He wants to understand how will TSMC reconcile its own interests versus some of the guidelines or guardrails around the Chips Act. Is there a possibility that we will not accept or participate in the Chips Act?

Wendell Huang (VP and CFO)

Okay.

Charlie Chan (Analyst)

Yep. Thank you.

Wendell Huang (VP and CFO)

Charlie, let me make a few comments on this one. We are currently in the application process, and therefore we're not able to comment on specific details. However, we are in close and constant communication with the U.S. government so that we fully understand all the details and provide our feedback and comments to them. At the end, all the decisions that we make will be based on the best interest of TSMC.

Charlie Chan (Analyst)

Okay. Okay. Thanks for that. Yeah, I will be back to the queue.

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

Okay. Thank you, Charlie. Operator, can we move on to the next participant, please?

Operator (participant)

Yes, the next one to ask question, Brett Simpson from Arete Research.

Brett Simpson (Senior Analyst)

Yeah, thanks very much. Wendell, I wanted to just talk a bit about Arizona. Now that you're scheduled to move into production next year, and you've been hiring a lot of people, how do we think about the cost premium for TSMC operating in the US? When it comes to the pricing for the wafers, would this be something that you charge a premium for accessing US capacity? Would you be sort of offering similar wafer pricing to what you offer in Taiwan? Thank you very much.

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

Thank you, Brett. Brett's first question is around regarding our Arizona fab. He notes that the volume manufacturing schedule is on track, and we've hired lots of people. His first question is to Wendell around sort of what is the cost premium that we face in Arizona, and how will we manage this, including our wafer pricing? Will we charge a different price for the different fab, or how do we intend to do it?

Wendell Huang (VP and CFO)

Okay, Brett. The overseas fabs is indeed the cost is higher, at least in the first several years. We stated last time that some of the components, like the construction cost, may be as high as 5 times. Now, the way to mitigate that, first of all, it's, it represents our global expansion, represent a value to the customers that we will be selling that value as well. Secondly, because of our large base and volume, we'll be able to leverage that big base and volume to lower down the cost. At the same time, of course, we will need to secure the necessary level of government support.

Putting all these efforts together, we will, our job is to minimize, the cost gap, and make appropriate return. For the whole company on a combined basis, the 53% and higher gross margin remains our long-term, financial goal and is achievable.

Brett Simpson (Senior Analyst)

Great. Thanks for that, Wendell. Maybe just a follow-up. I wanted to ask about the subsidies that TSMC are getting today, particularly in areas like Japan. How much is this gonna be in 2023? Are you expecting a meaningful increase in support in the second half of the year? I'm just trying to understand what's embedded in guidance and how to think about accounting for the support that you're expecting, you know, over the medium term. Thank you.

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

Brett has a quick follow-up in regards to Japan. His question in terms of the government support or incentives we may receive, how will we account for it? How much will it be in 2023, and how significant is it, most of it in second half?

Wendell Huang (VP and CFO)

Okay. Brett, let me reply this manner. In Japan, our total CapEx is about TWD 8 billion. We expect about 50% to receive from the government. We will start production at the end of next year. The incentives from the government will be based on the progress that we are building our fabs. So that gives you some idea of how much we can receive this year and next year. How do we account for it? Basically, that will be accounted for as an offset of depreciations.

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

Okay?

Brett Simpson (Senior Analyst)

Great. Thanks very much. Very helpful.

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

Okay. Thank you, Brett. Operator, can we move on to the next participant then?

Operator (participant)

Next, we have Sunny Lin from UBS.

Sunny Lin (Semiconductor Analyst)

Thank you very much. Good afternoon. My first question is on the pricing. I think just now management again reiterated that your supply chain value is increasing and you look to sell that value. With that, as you are about to start ramping over this capacity more significantly into next couple of years, how should we think about your ASP trend?

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

Okay. Sunny's first question is also related to pricing. She notes that semiconductor industry value in the supply chain, TSMC said, is increasing. Her question is that, Sunny, I believe as we expand our footprint and capacity beyond Taiwan and go overseas, what will be the ASP trend in the next few years? Is that correct?

Sunny Lin (Semiconductor Analyst)

That's right. Thank you very much.

C.C. Wei (CEO)

Okay. Sunny, I answer this question. First, actually, our pricing strategy actually is strategic and long term. We work with our customer. Yes, you are right. I mean that the inflation or others, the costs is increasing, especially in the overseas fabs. However, we already put all those kind of things into consideration, and we have a lot of action item to work with, internally and also with our partners, our supply partners, and to lower down all the costs. We're also working on the supply chains management. We hope that we will control that, even with today's very tough situation.

Sunny Lin (Semiconductor Analyst)

Got it. sorry, if I could, have a very quick follow-up. How should we think about the mechanism, for you to reflect that supply chain value? Will it be a, annual pricing negotiation? I also wonder, what's the customer feedbacks, under the current situations.

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

All right. Sunny wants to know how will we do the pricing. Is it on an annual basis? What's the feedback from customers?

C.C. Wei (CEO)

Sunny, this is very specific, but let me emphasize again, our pricing is strategic, and we reflect our value. Now, our value includes the value of you know, geographical flexibility. Did that give you some hint?

Sunny Lin (Semiconductor Analyst)

Got it. Thank you. That's very helpful. My second question is on your CapEx expansion. I wonder if we look at the equipment lead time, are you seeing ongoing improvement? What I'm trying to understand, if you need to tighten up the CapEx, but let's say, if later on, demands start to recover or get better into second half the year, how much flexibility you have to pull in the equipment?

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

Sunny's second question is around capacity expansion and equipment lead time. She notes that we have said we're tightening up our CapEx this year and being prudent given the economic environment. Her question is, if the demand recovers in the second half, how quickly can we adjust our equipment and capacity, and would equipment lead time then become a bottleneck? Is that correct, Sunny?

Sunny Lin (Semiconductor Analyst)

That's right. Thank you, Jeff.

C.C. Wei (CEO)

Okay. Sunny, this is a very, very good question. We are tightening up on the CapEx, but at the same time, we also remain flexible that once demand pick up quickly, we should be prepared enough capacity for our customer to grow. Both factors are very important, and we are working with all the suppliers, preparing for that. In fact, we are planning our long-term capacity expansion. Then, with some kind of adjustment in between. We have a flexibility to increase quickly. We also have a flexibility to tighten the CapEx. The main trend stays the same because we believe AI, 5G is the mega trend, will continue to grow and TSMC's business will continue to grow.

Sunny Lin (Semiconductor Analyst)

Got it. Thank it very much.

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

All right. Thank you, Sunny. Operator, can we move on to the next participant, please?

Operator (participant)

Next one, we have Laura Chen from Citi.

Laura Chen (Analyst)

Yes. Hi, good morning. Thank you very much for taking my question. My first question is about the data center and server space. We know that in the high computing PC category that also includes some of the PC CPU or consumer-related applications. That may show us some weakness as we see the quote, unquote, "decline in Q1." I'm just wondering that since we see quite promising AI server growth, specifically if we look at the AI-related contribution at current right now or what's the growth outlook you may looking for?

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

Okay. Laura's question, she notes that our HPC platform includes, you know, more consumer-facing things such as PC CPUs, but it also includes data center and servers, sorry. Her question is really, I guess, what is TSMC's view on the growth outlook for AI data centers, and how significant this could be for HPC business?

Laura Chen (Analyst)

Yes. If we excluding those like our gaming GPU or consumer PC CPU in this category. What's the data server and server business looks like now? Thank you.

C.C. Wei (CEO)

Laura, let me answer this question. We did see some positive sign of the people getting much more attention to AI application, especially the ChatGPT's area. As I said, quantitatively, we haven't have enough data to summing it up to see what is the contribution and what kind of percentage to TSMC's business. We remain confident that this trend is definitely positive for TSMC.

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

We don't break down our HPC platform into those type of sub-segments.

C.C. Wei (CEO)

Thank you.

Laura Chen (Analyst)

Okay, understood. Thank you very much. My second question is also related to like, high computing PC angle. I'm just wondering that your expansion and trend in advanced packaging. We know that many of those like AI or server high computing PC CPU, they require the advanced packaging like CoWoS or 2.5D, 3D packaging. I'm just wondering that any more capacity you are required right now and what's the current capacity or revenue you can share with us and also the growth trend. Thank you.

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

Okay. Laura's second question is on the advanced packaging. She notes that applications like HPC, PC CPUs, et cetera, require, you know, CoWoS or 3D stacking, 3D IC advanced packaging technologies. Her question is what is the capacity expansion outlook or plan for our advanced packaging? What is the revenue growth outlook, I guess over the next few years? Is that correct, Laura?

Laura Chen (Analyst)

Yes. Thank you very much.

Wendell Huang (VP and CFO)

Okay, Laura, let me start. For the advanced packaging, the backend services, we think that its growth in next about five years will be slightly higher than the corporate average. Okay. However, for this year, the revenue will be lower than that of last year because of customer demand. Last year, the revenue accounted for about 7% of our total revenue. This year is somewhere between 6%-7%. That should give you an idea of the overall, yeah, the backend.

Laura Chen (Analyst)

Okay. Yeah, in terms of the capacity, is there any change in like this year versus last year?

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

also part of the question is specific to the capacity for packaging. What is the year-over-year growth in the advanced packaging capacity?

C.C. Wei (CEO)

Well, Laura. No, no. I mean, that's, let me say that actually just, recently in these 2 days I received a customer's phone call, requesting a big increase on the backends, like capacity, especially in the CoWoS. We are still evaluating that.

Laura Chen (Analyst)

Okay, got it. Very clear. Very helpful. Thank you very much.

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

Thank you. Operator, please move on to the next participant, please.

Operator (participant)

Yes. Next one to ask questions, Mehdi Hosseini from SIG. Go ahead, please.

Mehdi Hosseini (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Yes. Thank you for taking my question. Your guide for June and also 2023 revenue suggests revenues in the second half of the year would be up by 25% versus the first half. What I wanna better understand is how will new product ramps drive this growth? Is there anything quantitative or qualitative that you can offer us to understand the mechanics or the drivers behind this 25% growth in revenue from first half into the second half. I have a follow-up.

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

Thank you, Mehdi. Mehdi's first question is in looking at our guidance, his calculation is implies it's around, you know, mid-twenties, half-on-half growth in the second half. He wants to know how much is new projects or new business driving that percentage of the growth.

C.C. Wei (CEO)

I can answer that question. I, to give you a hint, I mean, that we talk about a customer's new product launch and which use a 3 nanometer. You can understand that we start to ramp up our 3 nanometer quickly because you fully utilize and still not enough to meet customers' demand. In addition to that, actually, all the platforms, their performance, their demand will increase in the second half.

Mehdi Hosseini (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

As these new products drive wafer shipment increase, we should assume that utilization rates would bottom in June and improve into the second half, right?

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

He wants to know, can he assume utilization bottoms in 2Q and improves in second half?

C.C. Wei (CEO)

Yeah, Mehdi, that's a reasonable view.

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

C.C. has already said second half will be stronger than first half. Yeah. Do you have a second question, Mehdi?

Mehdi Hosseini (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Yes, I have one for Wendell. This question comes up every earnings conference call, capital intensity. Should we assume that as you tighten your CapEx budget for this year, and especially in the context of declining revenues for the whole year, are we at the tail end of elevated capital intensity? Or should we assume that you, over the past couple of years, there has been significant investment, and then starting next year, you're gonna be able to scale your revenues? Is that the right way of thinking about all these investments that you have done?

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

Mehdi's second question is on around capital intensity. He wants to know, given the guidance we have provided for 2023, are we at the tail end of the higher capital intensity period or elevated capital intensity period? Will we start to, I guess, harvest or see that capital intensity come down, next year or into the next few years?

C.C. Wei (CEO)

Mehdi, I am not going to share with you the peak, where the peak is. I can tell you from my current five-year outlook, we are looking at about mid-30s% of capital intensity.

Mehdi Hosseini (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Okay, great. Thank you.

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

Okay. Thank you, Mehdi. Operator, let's move on to the next participant.

Operator (participant)

Yes, the next one to ask questions, Krish Sankar from TD Cowen.

Krish Sankar (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Yeah, hi. Thanks for taking my question. My first one is on your comment that the N3 capacity will be fully utilized this year. Is that capacity gonna be online in the second half same or higher or lower than what you planned a year ago? At this point, do you see the N3 wafer demand profile to be similar or better than N5 at the same point in the cycle? Add a follow-up.

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

Krish's first question is on N3 capacity. He notes we said it will be fully utilized this year. He wants to know the capacity that we build or plan for N3 this year and in the second half. How does that capacity amount compare to what we expected a year ago?

C.C. Wei (CEO)

Well, I can answer the question. Actually, the demand is higher than we thought a year ago. That's why that we need to work very hard to beat customers' demand. Did that answer your question, Krish?

Krish Sankar (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Yeah, it does. It does. Thank you for that, CC. Just a quick follow-up. You know, you spoke about AI being a positive and, on the, you know, innovation happening in generative AI today. Just from a TSMC standpoint, is it fair to assume that what you're going through today is more on the training stage and therefore it's more semiconductor and wafer intensive, but when you go into more inference, that, intensity has to decrease? Is it a fair assumption or do you think that this level of intensity will just continue growing from a TSMC standpoint for AI?

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

Krish's second question is regards to generative AI, and these type of applications. His observation is that, you know, the majority is training today, which seems to be beneficial, but as training moves to inference, would it be less semi-intensive or semi-content intensive, and then therefore would that be, i.e., lower benefit to TSMC?

C.C. Wei (CEO)

Krish, I mean, that's, you know, today your observation is right because right now most of the AI concentrate or focus on training. In the future, it will be inference. Let me say that, you know, no matter what, no matter what kind of application, they need to use a very high performance semiconductor component. That actually is TSMC's advantage. We expect that semiconductor content starting from a data center proliferate to a device and edge device or those kind of things, put all together. They need a very high speed computing with a very power efficient one. We expect it will add to TSMC's business a lot. Quantitatively, as I said, we didn't know yet. We hope that in the next few quarter can give more clear picture.

Thanks, C.C. Thanks, Jeff.

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

Okay, thank you. Operator, in the interest of time, we'll take the last two questions from the last two participants, please. Can we proceed to the next participant?

Operator (participant)

Yes, of course. Next up is Brad Lin from Bank of America. Go ahead, please.

Brad Lin (Research Analyst)

Thank you for taking my question. I have the two questions. One on the internal organization change and the other on the recently announced strategic alliance. While the global expansion is a key focus of TSMC, I noticed that TSMC set up a new unit called Overseas Operations Office, OOO. What are the targets and impacts that the TSMC management would look for from this new unit? Thank you. That's my first question.

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

Brad's first question is about our internal organization change. We set up an overseas office, we call OOO. He wants to know what is the purpose of this organization or office? What is its targets and purpose?

C.C. Wei (CEO)

The purpose is very simple because we need to have all the organization. Now the fab is obviously fabs are numbered and the amount will be more and more, so we need to have a coherence all in the culture. Everything aligns to the headquarter to TSMC's core value. We established this Overseas Operations Office to make sure that headquarters support to each overseas fab will be sufficient and enough. So that the performance will be aligned or match with the TSMC's fab in Taiwan. More importantly, because of we have this organization, so we can help them to be succeed and in the future can be more profitable.

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

Thank you, C.C. Brad, do you want to-

Brad Lin (Research Analyst)

Brad.

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

Yeah. Your second question.

Brad Lin (Research Analyst)

Sure. Thank you, Jeff. My second question will be on the recently announced strategic alliance. As the node migration is the foundry's competition focus, and we know that TSMC leadership in the leading edge. We recently see TSMC partner up with NVIDIA, Synopsys, and ASML on two nanometer production and beyond. What is the target and how is the progress so far? TSMC is currently the only foundry within that group. Should we expect an even larger gap to peers with this? Or should we allow more companies or competitors to join this group? Thank you.

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

Brad, sorry, let me clarify, make sure we understand your second question. Your second question is talking about, you call it an alliance, but I think you refer to ASML and NVIDIA. Are you referring to this announcement recently of the, what is called the cuLitho?

Brad Lin (Research Analyst)

Exactly, yes. Computational litho. Yes.

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

Got it. Thank you. Brad really wants to know what is management's view towards this recently announced cuLitho. What is the implication and what does this mean for TSMC's competitiveness, sorry, going forward?

C.C. Wei (CEO)

Okay. That's a good question. It is, you know, initially invented by TSMC's customer, NVIDIA. Actually, we are working with them. This particularly, the software and the hardware together will help speed up computational lithography by moving expensive operation to GPU, which will help us deploy lithography solution like inverse lithography technology, deep learning more broadly, or etc. Because of this one, we get involved with the, our customer and our supplier, and we expect that this one give us some advantage over our cost improvement and also competition.

Brad Lin (Research Analyst)

Got it. That's very clear. Thank you very much for the insight. Thank you, C.C. Thank you, Jeff.

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

Sure. Thank you, Brad. Operator, can we move on to the last participant, please?

Operator (participant)

The last questions are from Charles Shi from Needham & Company. Go ahead, please.

Charles Shi (Analyst)

Thank you for squeezing me in. I have a question about your CapEx. Maybe I wanna start out with one item you disclosed in your filings on your balance sheet. You have an item called equipment under installation and construction progress. That number has hit a record high, I think over $40 billion as of the end of fourth quarter 2022. Which kinda means there is a $40 billion investment. You put money in, but you are not harvesting that investment yet. There's no revenue dollars being generated. Now I think you said you're tightening the CapEx for 2023, but you're reiterating that $32 billion-$36 billion CapEx.

That seems to be adding on top of that $40 billion, a lot more investment is still expected in this year. My question really is about this. Are you expecting significantly higher incremental revenue opportunity in 2024 and beyond to justify that $40 billion plus maybe another $32 billion investment? Or is the cycle time between you put the money in, put the investment into the time you harvest the investment, the general revenue is getting a little bit longer than usual. Hopefully you can clarify this.

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

Okay, Charles.

Charles Shi (Analyst)

Thank you.

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

That is a very long question. Please let me try to summarize it a little bit.

Charles Shi (Analyst)

Sure.

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

into two parts. I think Charles' question, he does rightly note that, on our balance sheet, equipment under installation, reached, you know, roughly about TWD 40 billion at the end of 2022. He notes this is a very high level. His concern, maybe Wendell can address, is we also guided for TWD 32 billion-TWD 36 billion CapEx this year. Is this number going to only increase? What is driving this? Is this, you know, preparing for significant revenue opportunities in 2024 and beyond? This is his first question.

Wendell Huang (VP and CFO)

Okay, Charles. The $40 billion asset under construction at the end of last year primarily come from two nodes, a N3 node and the N5 nodes. N3 nodes, that is because we're ramping up the N3 nodes. In N5, we continue to increase our capacity. Therefore, these two add together, you see a bigger asset under construction at the end of last year. From what I can see, going forward, this number will gradually come down in the next few years.

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

Okay, Charles?

Charles Shi (Analyst)

Yeah.

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

And-

Charles Shi (Analyst)

Maybe the other part of this question is, 'cause you are proceeding with that $32 billion-$36 billion, that it's hard for me to reconcile how this number comes down at least, in the next one year or so of the next 12-month horizon. How do I reconcile that? Are you expecting, like, next year, there's gonna be a significant revenue, incremental revenue coming to TSMC?

Wendell Huang (VP and CFO)

Charles, as we said, it's too early to talk about next year, but, we also said that if we continue to see the future growth opportunities is there, we will continue to invest.

Charles Shi (Analyst)

Thank you.

Wendell Huang (VP and CFO)

Thank you.

Charles Shi (Analyst)

May I ask the second question?

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

Sure.

Charles Shi (Analyst)

Yeah, thank you for that. The second question is about CHIPS Act. I've heard you provided some help to the question from another analyst about that. Can you kind of quantify the potential benefits from the U.S. CHIPS Act manufacturing incentives, which to my understanding, including both grants and investment tax credit? I know this is kind of relevant to our modeling going forward. Maybe if I may, can I ask one of your U.S. peers seems to be favoring investment tax credit over grants. They seem to only want the investment tax credit, not the grants. What is TSMC's thinking between these two different funding opportunities? Thank you.

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

Okay. Thank you, Charles. Charles' second question is around the CHIPS Act. He is asking if we can quantify the potential benefits, both in terms of grants and also in terms of tax credits. Do we favor one over the other or preference for one over the other?

Wendell Huang (VP and CFO)

Charles, as I said, we're in the process of application. We're not in a position to disclose any details. I will refrain from sharing more information at this moment.

Jeff Su (Director of Investor Relations)

Okay. Thank you, Wendell. All right. Thank you, everyone. This concludes our Q&A session. Before we conclude today's conference, please be advised that the replay of the conference will be accessible within 30 minutes from now, and the transcript will become available 24 hours from now. Both of these will be available through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com. Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We hope you all continue to stay well, and we look forward to joining us again next quarter. Goodbye, and have a great day.