Micron Technology - Q4 2024 Post Call

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Micron's Post Earnings Analyst Call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during this session, you'll need to press star one one on your telephone. If your question has been answered and you'd like to remove yourself from the queue, simply press star one one again. As a reminder, today's program is being recorded. And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Satya Kumar, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Satya Kumar (Head of Investor Relations)

Yeah, thanks, Jonathan, and thank you, and welcome to Micron Technology's Fiscal Q4 2024 Post Earnings Analyst Call. On the call with me today are Sumit Sadana, Micron's Chief Business Officer; Manish Bhatia, EVP of Global Operations; and Mark Murphy, our CFO. As a reminder, the matters we're discussing today include forward-looking statements regarding market demand and supply, market trends and drivers, and our expected results and guidance and other matters. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from statements made today. We refer you to documents that we have filed with the SEC, including our most recent Form 10-Q and upcoming Form 10-Q and 10-K, for a discussion of risks that may affect our results.

Although we believe that the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot guarantee future results, levels of activity, performance, and achievements. We are under no duty to update any of the forward-looking statements to confirm these statements to actual results. We can now open the call up to Q&A.

Operator (participant)

Certainly. Our first question comes from the line of Karl Ackerman from BNP Paribas. Your question, please.

Karl Ackerman (Managing Director of Semiconductors and Networking Hardware)

Yeah, thank you. Two questions, if I may. First, from a demand perspective, you indicated that server will continue to become a growing area of revenue growth as PC and smartphone demand remains mixed near term. I was curious if you could discuss your assumptions for server unit growth in fiscal 25. And as you address that question, is your high-capacity DRAM DIMMs, such as 128GB, only used in AI servers, or is it balanced across traditional servers that you've indicated are going through a product cycle refresh?

Sumit Sadana (Chief Business Officer)

Yeah, in terms of, Karl, in terms of the server mix, we do expect that, the traditional servers will continue to improve in terms of the tone of the demand, and will grow, because the applications that, and the software that, IT, departments across large companies have been running, that software deployment continues. You can see the growth in the application software industry. So, general purpose server growth can be compressed only so much, has been compressed quite a bit over the last couple of years. So we do expect this year there will be, some modest, unit growth in general purpose servers, and it will continue into next year. And then, of course, the growth in AI servers is expected to be strong, this year, strong next year.

We don't see any kind of change in that expectation that we have provided over the last couple of quarters. For 2025, definitely that momentum in AI continues, and of course, we have a lot of improvement in our competitive positioning in the server arena. We have spoken extensively about that. We have HBM growth in AI servers. Of course, we have high-cap DIMMs that you mentioned. These 128GB DIMMs do get used in both AI servers as well as traditional servers, but predominantly, they're used, as in, AI servers because they are more expensive on a per bit basis than 64GB DIMMs.

Consequently, they tend to get used more in AI servers, both on the training as well as inferencing side, and we expect that to continue.

Karl Ackerman (Managing Director of Semiconductors and Networking Hardware)

Thank you. I appreciate that. If I could sneak in one more, I would just hope you could clarify your comments on inventory. You know, obviously, inventory rose $300 million as you maintained discipline around supply. Are you suggesting that fiscal Q4 remains the peak dollar value of inventory as PC and smartphone demand begins to improve in the H1 of the year? Thank you.

Mark Murphy (CFO)

Yeah, Karl, it's Mark. You know, we don't typically give dollar estimates because clearly what, you know, what happens with our forecast where, you know, you know, modulating builds and, you know, building, you know, we have raw materials and WIP and so forth. You know, our. So we, we tend to focus on providing you a, a DIO number. We did think that on a dollar and DIO basis, it would be elevated going into 2025. And what we will see, we believe, is inventory days improving through 2025. And, you know, particularly in the H2 of our fiscal year, as our fiscal year is more H2 weighted on volumes. Now, of course, the business is getting larger, so on a dollar basis, you know, there won't be the same degree of change.

But on the DIO, we do see improvement through the year, particularly in the back half of the year.

Karl Ackerman (Managing Director of Semiconductors and Networking Hardware)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Harlan Sur from JP Morgan. Your question, please.

Harlan Sur (Analyst)

Yeah. Hey, good afternoon, and congrats on the strong overall operational execution. You know, on the better DRAM bit shipment outlook in November, up sequentially versus prior view of flat to up slightly, how much of that is better than expected yield improvements in HBM, right? Because we know your AI customers are supply constrained on HBM3E, so any better yield and resulting supply unlock would be consumed right away, right? So is part of the better bit shipment outlook this quarter due to better HBM supply unlock versus your prior expectations?

Manish Bhatia (EVP of Global Operations)

Maybe I'll answer, Harlan, just on the HBM ramp, and then, Sumit, you can answer on some of the other drivers on, you know, of the guidance for DRAM. But, you know, our yield ramp is continuing to be strong. We feel good about where we are with our yields on HBM. We were able to achieve our goal for fiscal Q4 and our-

Harlan Sur (Analyst)

Mm-hmm.

Manish Bhatia (EVP of Global Operations)

In terms of shipping several $100 million worth of revenue, and we said that these were, you know, both quarters, FQ3 and FQ4, were at gross margins that were above our, you know, our, the rest of the DRAM products. So, you know, we feel like we've executed well on this ramp, and we continue to look forward to being able to support this multibillion-dollar business opportunity for us in fiscal year 2025. So, and we feel good about where we are with HBM, and I'll let Sumit talk about some of the other demand drivers of the strength since our last public comments at some conferences earlier this year.

Sumit Sadana (Chief Business Officer)

Yeah. Thanks, Manish. So in terms of demand, definitely the strength in the data center is driving upside to what we had prior communicated on the FQ1 trajectory on DRAM shipments, and we continue to see really strong demand from the data center. The demand is coming from both the cloud and enterprise AI servers, as well as traditional server origin.

Harlan Sur (Analyst)

Okay, perfect. And then maybe just to follow up, you know, there, there's been so much noise in the market around excess supply for more lagging edge DDR for DRAM. I mean, you know, the Micron team, as a part of your CapEx capacity optimization initiatives over the past 12 months, has really been focused, right, on converting lagging-edge capacity to leading-edge capacity. On top of that, the team has been focused on sort of more value-added solutions, right? So I assume that all of this has translated to less DDR4 output as well, but can you guys just level set us? Like, what percentage of your DRAM bit shipments are DDR4 today, and where do you expect that mix to be exiting this calendar year?

Sumit Sadana (Chief Business Officer)

Yeah. So, we don't provide percent of bits that are DDR4 or five, but I can just provide some color that DDR4 shipments continue to fall as a percent of our overall DRAM bit shipments over the last year, and looking ahead, will again fall into next year. Because more and more of our mix is shifting towards DDR5 over time. It's shifting-

Harlan Sur (Analyst)

Mm-hmm.

Sumit Sadana (Chief Business Officer)

-towards LP5, that we are now shipping to the data center. We had mentioned that Micron is a pioneer in the use of low-power DRAM in the data center, so LP5 in the data center itself is going to become a very significant product category for us, and we are leadership in the industry. It's a very important product opportunity for us. So when we drive more of the shipments there as well, it further reduces the mix of DDR4 and LP4 as part of the overall number. And then, of course, we have mentioned to you multiple times about HBM mix increasing every quarter-

Manish Bhatia (EVP of Global Operations)

Yes.

Sumit Sadana (Chief Business Officer)

-um,

Manish Bhatia (EVP of Global Operations)

Mm-hmm.

Sumit Sadana (Chief Business Officer)

And getting to fairly high levels of our mix. And when we think about the overall bit mix of HBM and then the over three to one trade ratio on the wafer mix, you can imagine that, you know, that also constrains the overall mix of the wafers that are going towards DDR4 and other lagging technology products.

Manish Bhatia (EVP of Global Operations)

And Harlan-

Harlan Sur (Analyst)

Appreciate, yeah.

Manish Bhatia (EVP of Global Operations)

Just to your question on, you know, the transitions and what we've been doing, you know, what we've talked about. You know, I think I've mentioned, you know, in the past that our 1-beta node is actually optimized for DDR5 and LP5.

Harlan Sur (Analyst)

Yes.

Manish Bhatia (EVP of Global Operations)

Also has HBM on it as well. So as we've been converting to 1-beta, and we said even in the prepared remarks that, you know, we're continuing to, you know, increase our mix of 1-beta as we move forward here in fiscal 2025. So you can kind of see that that is, you know, supportive of the comments Sumit made in terms of, you know, those high-value applications, DDR5-

Harlan Sur (Analyst)

Yeah

Manish Bhatia (EVP of Global Operations)

... LP5, HBM, you know, and are moving, you know, growing in our supply capability to serve those markets.

Harlan Sur (Analyst)

You know, appreciate the color. Thank you.

Mark Murphy (CFO)

Yeah, and I would, Harlan, maybe just to add, you know, our inventory values, most of that is leading edge, so as defined, as we've defined it. So, you know, that through the year, you know, we need that inventory to-

Harlan Sur (Analyst)

Mm-hmm

Mark Murphy (CFO)

help with that transition that Manish mentioned, as we bridge to increasing 1-beta capacity.

Harlan Sur (Analyst)

No, appreciate that. Thank you, guys.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Aaron Rakers from Wells Fargo. Your question, please?

Aaron Rakers (Managing Director)

Yeah, thank you for taking the question. Just building on the prior, you know, question from Harlan. You know, we've talked a lot about, you know, the industry, about the trade ratio, the three to one. As you guys move to the 12-high stack, and you talk about the confidence moving towards HBM4 and HBM4E, I'm curious about how you see the evolution of that trade ratio. Do you think, does it ever go down because yields improve, or is there a propensity to see that maybe even increase, as we think about HBM4 and beyond? I'm curious as to how that's evolved, how you've thought about that, and I have a quick follow-up as well.

Manish Bhatia (EVP of Global Operations)

Sure, Aaron. So you know, we have talked about how you know, HBM3E will have a three-to-one trade ratio, and that you know, that is made up of primarily factors of the die size growth. You know, HBM die size is larger than standard products in the same node, in order to be able to provide the high bandwidth capability and performance capability that you know, that HBM that defines HBM. And we have you know, and also based on the yields throughout the process and in particular, the assembly process. So you can assume that the 12 high will have maybe a slightly higher trade ratio than eight high.

And I think we've said also that as we move towards HBM4, we see that trade ratio increasing as well. You know, we haven't really commented beyond that, but you can kind of imagine that as the performance gap between the HBM standard at the time and the standard products of LP and DDR, as the performance gap between those widens, then you know, that's what's the biggest driver in terms of the trade ratio. Because the more and more of the die size is dedicated to providing high bandwidth capability on the die that's differentiated in HBM versus standard DDR and LP products.

Aaron Rakers (Managing Director)

Yep, that's very helpful. And then just a quick follow-up. I know you've given some framework around CapEx and the guidance for the first fiscal quarter. I'm just curious, you know, Mark, as we think about, you know, the CapEx trajectory, is there things with, you know, as you look forward, that make CapEx more, you know, back-half weighted relative to past years? Any kind of trajectory of how you're thinking about the CapEx spend, you know, relative to what we've seen the last few years, as far as the cadence through the fiscal year?

Mark Murphy (CFO)

No, Aaron, at this time, you know, we've given quite a bit on CapEx for this fiscal year 2025. We indicated that would be up meaningfully. We, you know, we gave $3.5 billion for the Q1. We've given that we expect full year estimate of mid-thirties percent of revenue. So we'll, you know, we'll provide more through the year. You know, we can provide a bit more color on the nature of that CapEx. I mean, the overwhelming majority in 2025 is to support HBM. CapEx, as well as facility construction, back end and R&D. You know, WFE was down in both 2022 to 2023, then down again in 2024.

Or down from 2022 to 2023, then down again in 2024. We do expect WFE to be up a bit, increase in 2025. But we'll remain disciplined on WFE and, you know, and just to manage overall supply growth, you know, maintain stable bit share, as we say.

Aaron Rakers (Managing Director)

Yep. Thanks, Mark.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Chris Caso from Wolfe Research. Your question, please?

Chris Caso (Managing Director)

Yes, thank you. Good evening. The first question is about any potential impact from some of the China capacity that we've had added, we've seen added. And naturally, that's on the lower end of the market, and you've said, you know, that you are—it's becoming a smaller percentage of your business. But is that causing some disruption in what you're seeing now? And is that having any meaningful impact for you now? And then, you know, perhaps if that becomes a smaller part of revenue next year, does it become a smaller impact, if there is any impact now?

Sumit Sadana (Chief Business Officer)

Yeah, Chris. So in terms of China supply, yes, there has been China supply in the market. It's primarily limited to China-oriented, China-exported customers who are using some of that supply or attempting to use it. And generally focused on the product categories that have lower performance associated with them. So you know, DDR4, LP4.

On the DRAM side and some of the lower-end products on the NAND side, especially in mobile and consumer SSD type of product categories. Our focus has been to really have flat share on a global basis for DRAM and NAND, and within that, focus on the higher profit pools of the industry. And we have made significant progress on that strategy, and you can see that in action now because we are in the midst of what is the best product cycle that we have had in the history of Micron. We are gaining share in all of the big, high-profit portions of the product portfolio of the industry.

We have HBM share gains happening, really robust share in high-cap DIMMs, pioneer and leaders in LP5 in the data center, data center SSDs at record share levels. So you can see how, you know, the portion of the business that's exposed to those kinds of trends in China are really becoming smaller as a percent of our revenue over time.

Chris Caso (Managing Director)

Right. That's helpful. Thank you. I guess as a follow-up, just kind of wrapping up all your CapEx comments, and you've provided a lot of detail, obviously, but it is, you know, I guess what you've said in the past is basically that the amount of bit growth, or the CapEx that's oriented towards bit growth is actually really small, that this is mainly technology transitions. And as you, you know, migrate out to the next nodes, that you're... I guess in some cases in the past, you've actually been reducing capacity on that. Is the view as you go into 2025, that there's no meaningful increase in bit capacity, even as you migrate to some of these more advanced nodes in support of HBM?

Manish Bhatia (EVP of Global Operations)

So, you know, Chris, we had talked about, in, you know, the last few calls and throughout fy 2024, about this capital-efficient, approach that we were taking to, continuing technology conversions. For example, previous question, trying to convert more towards 1-beta, which was a D5 and LP5 optimized node from older nodes in an efficient way where we utilize some of the equipment that was for, you know, the prior nodes and reduce wafer capacity structurally. So I think that's, you know, sort of what you're referring to. Net, we do get bit growth capability still because there is still bit growth capability provided by the new technology. But it's not as much as it would have been if we had maintained the, same wafer capacity, right? So that's sort of the give and take.

As the wafer capacity comes down, the technology, new technology, you know, provides more bit growth. And net, we still do get some, you know, bit growth. It's just not as much as it would have been. And we believe this is something that's there throughout the industry, not just us, but both DRAM and NAND have had structural wafer capacity reductions in the industry, since peak levels in 2022.

And, you know, we're still, you know, going to be growing bit share long term in line with the demand that we see, and taking into account things like the HBM trade ratio, which it makes it more difficult to, you know, sort of a headwind to bit growth, because as the mix of wafers moving towards HBM grows, you know, the bit capability for given amount of wafer capacity is lower.

Chris Caso (Managing Director)

All right. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Harsh Kumar from Piper Sandler.

Harsh Kumar (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Yeah, hey-

Operator (participant)

Your question, please.

Harsh Kumar (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Yeah. Hey, guys. First of all, congratulations. Seems like you guys are doing a good job with the turn in the cycle. Maybe a question for Sumit or Mark. I wanted to understand your visibility. I wanted to just... We get this question a lot from our investors, wanted to kinda understand maybe either the dynamics of a typical contract, how long it is, whether it's for a particular generation or even beyond, or if you don't wanna get that specific, maybe you could talk about your design engagements with your larger customer, the handful that make GPUs. What kind of visibility do you have, either with the contracts for supply or even your design contracts? And then I had a follow-up.

Sumit Sadana (Chief Business Officer)

Yeah. So in terms of the kind of agreements that we do with customers on this front, we have a couple of different types. We obviously, when we do LTAs or long-term agreements, they're focused on the next calendar year, typically. And so it goes January to December of 2025, in this case, and we tend to have, you know, visibility to the breakdown of bits in DRAM and NAND by quarter. Typically, we work with our customers to figure out what kind of products they are in advance, and we get a understanding of that, you know, based on the product type, what kind of node these bits are going to be manufactured in, so we can translate that to our manufacturing operations demand signal.

Now, when it comes to HBM, you know, so by the way, before we talk about HBM, so these tend to be mainly volume agreements that get negotiated for price on a, you know, monthly or quarterly basis, depending on, you know, the customer. And, and that pricing gets negotiated over time, as we go through the, fiscal and calendar year. When it comes to HBM, the agreements are different, and the terms are different. The visibility is longer, and we tend to have, these agreements do have pricing already concluded for all of calendar 2024 and 2025. And, the thing that is obviously different for HBM and also for LPDRAM that's going into the data center, is we have very deep engagements with our customers, on their R&D.

The roadmap that they're working on, whether it's GPUs or ASIC accelerators that they're designing, requires multiyear outlook on the roadmap, requires alignment on specs, alignment on features and functionality. When it comes to LP, you know, what kind of capability on the RAS side they need, reliability, availability, and serviceability that we design in and lead the industry on that. So these are like all multiyear engagements on the R&D front. And that is what gives us the confidence when we make the statements that we feel we'll have leadership in HBM4 and HBM4E as well.

As it gets to 4E, then we even talk to them about customization that is going to be happening in 4E, where certain kinds of IP, a customer may want to embed in our HBM product, and then it becomes, you know, very different than a regular standard product. When it becomes different than a standard product, then it comes with very different terms in terms of the business arrangement that we have. That is part of what we say that, you know, this growth of the data center, ultimately, growth of AI, is going to create opportunities to transform the business model of the industry over time as well. That's sort of a window into how those engagements happen.

Harsh Kumar (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

This is super helpful. So another one is a follow-up. Another one that we get is there's this fear that we hear from some of our clients and investors, that the third competitor will suddenly wake up and, you know, just get into the game. I suspect from what you're saying, it's not that easy, that this customer, the third customer, would have to get in line, you know, get some share in. You would have your own share contracted out, so you're probably not likely to get surprised, or am I mistaken in this assumption?

Sumit Sadana (Chief Business Officer)

I mean, we do have an expectation that ultimately, you know, all three of the large DRAM suppliers will be able to supply HBM. Our goal is to have the best HBM on the planet, with the best performance, the best functionality and features and specs. I think it is really remarkable that, 12-high product from Micron can have 20% lower power than an 8-high product from the nearest competitor. That kind of power savings directly helps with, saving of, data center power needs, because, next to the processor, the DRAM is, you know, a huge part of, what happens to the power consumption in the data center.

So, it's not just about our share, it's also about, you know, how the share can, how Micron's products can actually be leveraged for, end-to-end advantage for our customers. And, consequently, we have seen very high demand for our product, and we feel confident that, we'll be able to ramp. I mean, all of the ramp that we have, for 2025 is really limited by, the supply and the rate and pace at which it can be brought to market, because we definitely have, a lot of demand for this industry in product. Now, as you look past that, obviously, you know, there is always, competition, and we are not afraid of competition. And so we plan for our supply to ensure that it's in sync with the demand.

When we look at the industry model for supply and demand, we are capturing in that model what portion of the demand is HBM, what portion of the demand is non-HBM. As you know, we have discussed in the prior call as well today that the non-HBM portion of the industry is being compressed by the growth in HBM. Overall, you know, bit growth can be brought online only at a certain rate and pace, especially when HBM is so capital intensive to bring up so much volume so fast for the whole industry.

And so, we do feel that, you know, the mix changes will happen, but we'll be able to manage them well, because the aggregate level of supply-demand ought to be in a healthy place based on our outlook for how 2025 fiscal and calendar year is likely to evolve.

Harsh Kumar (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Wonderful. Thank you, guys. Thanks so much.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of- Mehdi Hosseini from Susquehanna?

Mehdi Hosseini (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Yes, thank you. Yes, thank you, operator. It's actually Mehdi Hosseini. I just have a couple of follow-up questions, all the good questions have been asked. Mark, given your OpEx increase of 15% and the fact that you're sold out for HBM, also accounting for a higher mix of your capacity, what is your confidence level in operating margin expanding throughout 2025? And I have a couple of other follow-ups.

Mark Murphy (CFO)

Yeah, Mehdi, you know, we're guiding, you know, one quarter at a time. We did provide color on the industry or on the year and the, you know, the market environment. You know, as it relates to the year, and maybe to help you with some view on the year, we do see, you know, a healthy supply-demand balance and, you know, a constructive environment to help with our financial profitability through the year. Yeah, we've said we expect a significant revenue record and improved profitability.

We said today that our volumes in the year would be H2 weighted, which is, you know, important for a number of things, including our drawdown of inventories and our, you know, timing on node transition and output from that. You know, maybe one additional comment, you know, keep in mind that in the second quarter, it tends to be a, you know, seasonally weaker quarter for us. So second fiscal quarter, which would be the calendar first quarter, tends to be a weaker quarter for the industry. So, something to keep in mind.

But overall, you know, a year fiscal 2025 with increasing volumes, H2 fiscal year weighted, healthy supply-demand environment, executing really well on the product roadmaps and increasing mix of HBM, of high-capacity DIMMs, LP, data center SSD, and then a broadening of demand through the year, you know, from what has been very strong AI data center to broader, traditional and then other markets.

Mehdi Hosseini (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

So you feel pretty good for at least fy 2025. You just don't want to set a bar and be so accountable to that bar, but you feel pretty good. Is that a fair way of summarizing everything you said?

Mark Murphy (CFO)

We've given some positive indications for the year, and you know, we're vigilant at all times about our cost structure, about our cost performance, about the discipline of our capital spend and maintaining stable bit share, and you know, we're you know, we think we're doing a good job of executing well and managing the risks in the business.

Mehdi Hosseini (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. Thank you. And a question from Manish, and everyone is focused on back-end yield associated with HBM and TSV, but can you help me understand how your front-end yield compares to competitors? And the same thing for the back-end of HBM facilities. So kind of this could help us to better evaluate how well Micron is executing. So if you could just break it up between the front end and back end and how it's compared to the peers, that would be great.

Manish Bhatia (EVP of Global Operations)

Well, you know, I won't comment specifically, Mehdi, on competitors, but I will tell you that, and we have made comments on this before, we have made significant investments into what we call smart manufacturing and artificial intelligence for many years now, and we focus those in manufacturing both between technology development and manufacturing, and at that interface as we ramp new nodes so that our yield ramps, and we have given some color on this in the past. Our yield ramps continue node over node to be faster than prior nodes and more predictable and achieve higher mature levels, you know, as we move forward, so I think you can you know rest assured that all of those structural capabilities, we feel Micron is you know very very well positioned.

And we are utilizing, you know, this is, you know, all the latest techniques, and in fact, many of the equipment vendors that we talk to tell us that we are leading in smart manufacturing, you know, utilization of these techniques to be able to improve efficiency in the fab as well as yield performance and quality performance. So I think, you know, feel good about about that. And, you know, I already on the, you know, previously on the call, you know, I think it was, was it Harlan who asked about yields on HBM and, you know, just continue to reiterate, how we feel good about where they are, we feel good about where they're going, and being able to support the, you know, the HBM, opportunity that we have ahead.

Mehdi Hosseini (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

But I guess I was asking specifically for any kind of qualitative color on comparing frontend and the back-end, not overall unit.

Manish Bhatia (EVP of Global Operations)

Yeah, you know, I think that we, you know, I'm not gonna sort of comment specifically about, you know, our peers, but I think we have very good yields, right? And I think I feel good about where they are for both the front end and the back end. And then, you know, you're kinda asking about back end, I'll say across our, you know, back-end product lines, across the board, I feel like we have very, very good manufacturing capability, both from assembly, but also test capability. A lot of the yield capability that we have comes from our customized development of our own test

tester equipment and tester hardware, which allows us to be able to have lower cost test equipment, as well as equipment solutions and testing solutions that are specifically tuned to our products. In many ways, we design our tester hardware in line with our product design, so that we're able to test more efficiently and with better fidelity, such that we can improve yields while we're improving outgoing quality as well. So, you know, I feel like we have very, very strong capabilities in both front-end yields as well as back-end yields, and on back-end, both in assembly as well as in test.

Mehdi Hosseini (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Brian Chin from Stifel. Your question, please.

Brian Chin (Director)

Hi there. Good afternoon, and congratulations on the results and execution. Maybe related to something that was just discussed a moment ago. Yeah, this is our modeling. We'd modeled the February quarter revenue kind of sideways relative to November, for some of the reasons that were stated around seasonality and kind of this, you know, some inventories maybe that have built up in consumer. Maybe just to deconstruct that a little bit, when you think about seasonality, Mark, can you define what that looks like in a February quarter from a bit shipment standpoint? And then, in terms of the portfolio mix, which kind of works in the company's favor in the November quarter, driving some of that sequential growth, why would it not be? Why would that mix effect not be similar in the February quarter relative to November?

Mark Murphy (CFO)

Yeah, let me start, and then maybe Sumit can add on this. You know, Brian, we're not gonna guide to the Q2, and I understand the interest in you know learning about our view on that quarter. But right now, you know, just the contours of the year, we see you know strong data center demand through this H1 of the year, fiscal year. And then through the year, that AI-related server demand continuing to be strong, and then it broadening out. We're seeing traditional server volumes increase now, and then other markets see that broadening out. And as I mentioned earlier, our volumes, we see being heavier weighted in the H2 of the fiscal year.

And, you know, there will be some favorable, as you say, because some of these high-performance markets here that are strong. Yeah, there is continued favorable mix growth through the year. On, you know, as we ramp HBM, we've given enough markers on that profile, but also high capacity DIMMs, LP, and data center SSD we see continuing to grow. So, I think, Sumit, anything to add?

Sumit Sadana (Chief Business Officer)

Yeah, I think Mark provided the important relevant color. The only thing I'll mention is the Q2, like Mark said, we're not providing any guidance, but just in terms of you know, how you think about it, definitely the ramp of our higher margin data center products will continue throughout the year, so the Q2 will get benefit from that. But it is also, as Mark said, a quarter where there is seasonality of CQ1 that is part of our FQ2. And also, you know, we mentioned this point in our prepared remarks about the PC OEMs and, to a lesser extent, smartphone OEMs working to get their inventory to a healthier place by spring of twenty twenty-five, which again encapsulates the FQ2 timeframe.

So those are some of the things to keep in mind, which is what leads us to that H2 of fiscal year 2025, H2 calendar 2025 should be strong, broadening of demand drivers, AI, PC, smartphone, mix improvements helping, on top of the full year fiscal and calendar 2025 data center, robust demand continuing.

Brian Chin (Director)

Okay, great. That's actually super helpful. And maybe just a very quick follow-up, but from a timing standpoint, when roughly does your 12-high HBM3E product need to be qualified by, in order to be on track with your HBM production and shipment schedule that you've communicated?

Sumit Sadana (Chief Business Officer)

Yeah. So our HBM 8-high continues to ship in volume, and we are working very closely with our customers to figure out what their plans for switching to 12-high are, based on, of course, the qualifications, but more importantly, the readiness of their products to leverage 12-high and the readiness of the ecosystem to ramp 12-high, because 12-high, obviously, more complex product than 8-high, so will go through its own yield ramp. And our expectation is that we are gonna be selling this product in volume starting in early part of calendar 2025, and then throughout 2025, every quarter, the mix of 12-high will keep increasing, and the H2 of calendar 2025, you'll have a very large mix of 12-high.

In order to support that, obviously, you know, we provide samples to customers ahead of time. We go through a qual process, and we have mentioned that production ready 12-high samples have been provided to our customers, and we provided you some of the expectations we have of our industry leadership of that 12-high product, with a 20% lower power consumption versus others' 8-high products. We feel really good about our 12-high, and it should constitute the majority of our sales in the H2 of calendar 2025, assuming our customers make the transitions on the timelines that they're currently expecting.

Brian Chin (Director)

Great. Thank you very much.

Manish Bhatia (EVP of Global Operations)

Yeah, and I'll just add, we feel good about where we are with the 12-high. Sumit mentioned we've started sampling with customers, so we're getting feedback and learning to be able to prepare for that ramp that Sumit mentioned. It'll start in early calendar year 2025.

Brian Chin (Director)

Thanks.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. And this does conclude the question and answer session, as well as today's program. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation. You may now disconnect. Good day.