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CARRIER GLOBAL (CARR)

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Earnings summaries and quarterly performance for CARRIER GLOBAL.

Research analysts who have asked questions during CARRIER GLOBAL earnings calls.

Andrew Kaplowitz

Andrew Kaplowitz

Citigroup

6 questions for CARR

Also covers: ACM, AOS, APG +29 more
Christopher Snyder

Christopher Snyder

Morgan Stanley

6 questions for CARR

Also covers: ALH, ALLE, AME +20 more
Deane Dray

Deane Dray

RBC Capital Markets

6 questions for CARR

Also covers: AME, ATKR, DOV +20 more
JS

Jeffrey Sprague

Vertical Research Partners

6 questions for CARR

Also covers: ALLE, AME, AYI +23 more
JM

Julian Mitchell

Barclays Investment Bank

6 questions for CARR

Also covers: AIRJ, ALLE, AME +26 more
NC

Nigel Coe

Wolfe Research, LLC

6 questions for CARR

Also covers: AME, CNM, DOV +27 more
AO

Andrew Obin

Bank of America

5 questions for CARR

Also covers: ALH, ALLE, AME +17 more
Amit Mehrotra

Amit Mehrotra

UBS

4 questions for CARR

Also covers: EMR, ETN, GEV +8 more
CS

C. Stephen Tusa

JPMorgan Chase & Co.

3 questions for CARR

Also covers: ADSK, ANSS, APG +17 more
Joe Ritchie

Joe Ritchie

Goldman Sachs

3 questions for CARR

Also covers: ALLE, ATS, CNM +16 more
JO

Joseph O'Dea

Wells Fargo & Company

3 questions for CARR

Also covers: ALLE, ATMU, AYI +15 more
Joseph Ritchie

Joseph Ritchie

Goldman Sachs

3 questions for CARR

Also covers: ALLE, CGNX, CNM +22 more
SD

Scott Davis

Melius Research

3 questions for CARR

Also covers: DD, DHR, DOV +16 more
ST

Steve Tusa

JPMorgan Chase & Co.

3 questions for CARR

Also covers: AIN, ALTR, DD +15 more
ND

Nicole DeBlase

Deutsche Bank

2 questions for CARR

Also covers: GEV, HON, JCI +1 more
Noah Kaye

Noah Kaye

Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.

2 questions for CARR

Also covers: AAON, AMRC, BWA +16 more
SV

Stephen Volkmann

Jefferies

2 questions for CARR

Also covers: AGCO, CAT, CMI +20 more
Thomas Moll

Thomas Moll

Stephens Inc.

2 questions for CARR

Also covers: CGNX, DGII, DSGR +13 more

Recent press releases and 8-K filings for CARR.

Carrier outlines 2026 growth outlook at Goldman Sachs Industrials and Materials Conference
CARR
Guidance Update
Share Buyback
  • Carrier expects double-digit growth in 40% of its portfolio (aftermarket and commercial HVAC), modest declines in containers and RESI China (10%), and flattish performance in short-cycle businesses (50%), implying ~3–4% organic revenue growth for 2026.
  • The company aims to reduce CSA-RESI field inventories by 30% YoY, leading to softer 4Q25 shipments and a ~$0.05 EPS headwind, prioritizing inventory alignment over order volumes.
  • CSA-RESI outlook remains uncertain: on flat volumes, EPS could benefit by mid-single digits due to absent destocking, but tough 1H26 comparables and cautious guidance are planned for the February call.
  • Data-center cooling bookings grew from $500 M in 2024 to $1 B in 2025, with $900 M backlog for 2026 and a 25% growth target next year, driven by new Maglev chillers and CDUs plus expanded capacity.
  • Carrier completed its $3 B share buyback in 2025 and will continue repurchases through 2026, while targeting low-single-digit price increases (<5%) in RESI Americas in 2026 to maintain pricing discipline .
Dec 4, 2025, 1:40 PM
Carrier provides 2026 growth framework at Goldman Sachs conference
CARR
Guidance Update
Share Buyback
Demand Weakening
  • Carrier expects 40% of its portfolio (aftermarket and commercial HVAC) to grow double digits in 2026, driven by share gains in chillers, and will complete a $3 billion share buyback in 2025 with continued repurchases in 2026.
  • CSA-RESI field inventories are being reduced 30% YoY to about a 7.5 million-unit run rate (versus a 9 million-unit historical mean), leading to a slight $0.05 EPS drag in Q4 25 and a conservative 1Q 26 start.
  • The 2026 revenue mix—40% high-growth, 10% headwinds (container and China RESI), and 50% short-cycle flattish segments—points to ~3–4% organic growth assuming flat shorter-cycle volumes.
  • Data center cooling doubled to ~$1 billion in 2025, enters 2026 with $900 million backlog, and targets 25% growth through new liquid-cooling and chiller wins with hyperscalers.
Dec 4, 2025, 1:40 PM
Carrier outlines 2026 growth framework at Goldman Sachs Industrials Conference
CARR
Guidance Update
Share Buyback
Demand Weakening
  • Since its spin-off, Carrier has built a balanced climate and energy solutions portfolio with 50% of revenues in the Americas and a robust aftermarket business, both expected to sustain double-digit growth into 2026.
  • CSA-RESI is facing significant destocking: North American residential channel movement was down roughly 33% in November, and Carrier aims to cut field inventories by 30% y/y in 4Q25 by selectively managing shipments.
  • For 2026, Carrier anticipates double-digit growth in 40% of its portfolio (aftermarket and commercial HVAC), a modest decline in 10% (container and China RESI), and flat performance in the remaining high-margin, short-cycle businesses, yielding overall revenue growth of 3–4%.
  • The data center segment is backed by a $900 million backlog for 2026, underpinning expected growth of about 25% in that vertical next year.
  • Carrier will complete its $3 billion share buyback in 2025 and continue repurchases through 2026, driving an estimated $0.20 EPS tailwind from capital allocation and fixed-cost reductions.
Dec 4, 2025, 1:40 PM
Carrier Global declares quarterly dividend increase to $0.24 per share
CARR
Dividends
  • Carrier Global’s Board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.24 per share, payable February 9, 2026, to shareholders of record on January 20, 2026.
  • This dividend marks a 200% increase since the company’s spin-off in early 2020, underscoring its disciplined capital allocation approach.
  • CEO David Gitlin emphasized the commitment to returning capital to shareholders while continuing to invest in the business.
Dec 3, 2025, 9:15 PM
Carrier Global outlines 2026 outlook at Baird Global Industrial Conference
CARR
Guidance Update
Demand Weakening
Share Buyback
  • Carrier expects the North American residential HVAC market at 7.5 million units in 2025 versus a historical norm of 9 million units, with a gradual recovery over several years and assumes a flat volume market for 2026.
  • Data center revenues will double to $1 billion in 2025 with backlog extending into 2028, driving an expected 20–25% growth in this segment next year.
  • Aiming to mitigate destocking headwinds by reducing field inventory by 30% by year-end (down over 25% as of October) and planning mid-single-digit price increases in Americas residential to offset input cost inflation.
  • Committed to capital return, deploying $3 billion of share repurchases in 2025 and prioritizing similar buybacks in 2026, while maintaining a medium-term 6–8% organic growth target.
Nov 12, 2025, 6:00 PM
Carrier reports Q3 2025 results
CARR
Earnings
Share Buyback
  • In Q3 2025, net sales were $5.579 billion, down 7% year-over-year (organic sales down 4%).
  • Adjusted operating profit fell 21% to $823 million, with margins contracting to 14.8% (down 260 bps).
  • Adjusted EPS was $0.67, down 13%, and free cash flow was $224 million.
  • Climate Solutions Americas commercial sales grew 30% (data centers up ~250%), while residential sales declined ~30%.
  • Carrier repurchased $2.4 billion of shares year-to-date and received board approval for a new $5 billion buyback authorization.
Oct 28, 2025, 11:30 AM
Carrier announces Q3 2025 results
CARR
Earnings
Guidance Update
Share Buyback
  • Carrier reported Q3 2025 sales of $5.6 B, adjusted operating profit of $823 M, and adjusted EPS of $0.67.
  • North American residential weakness created a $500 M sales headwind and a 20–25% EPS impact, partly offset by 30% growth in commercial HVAC and 12% aftermarket growth.
  • Field inventories are on track to decline 30% year-over-year by year-end, reaching the lowest levels since 2018.
  • 2025 guidance narrowed to $22 B in sales and $2.65 adjusted EPS, with ~$2 B free cash flow and $3 B of share repurchases.
  • For 2026, the company targets low single-digit organic growth and a $0.20 per share EPS tailwind from carryover restructuring, a lower tax rate, and share buybacks.
Oct 28, 2025, 11:30 AM
Carrier Global reports Q3 2025 results
CARR
Earnings
Guidance Update
Share Buyback
  • Q3 reported sales of $5.6 billion, adjusted operating profit of $823 million, adjusted EPS of $0.67, and free cash flow of $225 million; total company organic growth down 4% and adjusted EPS down 13% year-over-year.
  • North American residential softness created about a $500 million sales challenge and a 20–25% EPS headwind, partially offset by Americas commercial HVAC sales up 30% and aftermarket growth of 12% in the quarter.
  • Implemented aggressive cost actions, including elimination of ~3,000 indirect positions, and board approved a new $5 billion share repurchase authorization.
  • 2025 guidance updated to ~$22 billion in sales, $2.65 adjusted EPS, $2 billion free cash flow, and $3 billion in share repurchases; Q4 residential sales expected down ~30% with volumes down ~40%.
Oct 28, 2025, 11:30 AM
Carrier Global reports Q3 2025 results
CARR
Earnings
Guidance Update
Share Buyback
  • North American residential softness created about a $500 million sales headwind and a 20–25% adjusted EPS impact, while Americas commercial HVAC grew 30%, aftermarket was up 12%, and European residential heat pump sales rose 15%.
  • Field inventories at end of Q3 were down 12% year-over-year and are expected to be 30% lower by year-end, the lowest level since 2018.
  • The company is eliminating approximately 3,000 indirect positions as part of structural cost actions and the board approved a new $5 billion share repurchase authorization.
  • Full-year guidance was lowered to about $22 billion in sales, $2.65 adjusted EPS, and $2 billion in free cash flow, with ~$3 billion of share buybacks; Q4 CS Americas residential sales are expected down 30%, volumes down 40%.
  • For 2026, planning assumes low single-digit organic growth and a $0.20 EPS tailwind from carryover restructuring savings, a lower tax rate, and share repurchases.
Oct 28, 2025, 11:30 AM
Carrier Global reports Q3 2025 results
CARR
Earnings
Guidance Update
Share Buyback
  • Net sales of $5.58 billion, down 7% year-over-year, with organic sales down 4% in Q3 2025.
  • GAAP EPS of $0.47 and adjusted EPS of $0.67 for the quarter.
  • Net cash from operating activities of $341 million and free cash flow of $224 million in Q3 2025.
  • Returned $3 billion to shareholders year-to-date, including $2.4 billion in share repurchases; Board authorizes an additional $5 billion buyback.
  • Maintains full-year 2025 guidance of approximately $22 billion in sales and $2.65 adjusted EPS.
Oct 28, 2025, 10:56 AM