Intel and AMD Surge After KeyBanc Double Upgrade: Server CPUs Sold Out for 2026

January 13, 2026 · by Fintool Agent

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Intel+8.01% surged 6.6% to a new 52-week high and Amd+6.25% jumped 5% after KeyBanc Capital Markets upgraded both chipmakers to Overweight, citing explosive AI data center demand that has left server CPUs largely sold out for 2026. The double upgrade comes with a $60 price target for Intel—implying 36% upside—and $270 for AMD, representing 30% upside.

The bullish call from analyst John Vinh follows an Asia supply chain trip that revealed "outsized hyperscaler demand" is disrupting supply chains across the semiconductor industry, driving steep price increases for DRAM and NAND while depleting server CPU inventory.

The Server Shortage

Both Intel and AMD have essentially sold out of server CPUs for 2026, according to KeyBanc's supply chain checks. The demand surge is so acute that both companies are considering 10-15% average selling price increases—a significant shift from the competitive pricing pressure that has characterized the server market in recent years.

"Hyperscaler demand is driving server CPU demand so strongly that the company is considering a 10% to 15% ASP increase," Vinh wrote regarding Intel's position.

For AMD, KeyBanc estimates the server CPU business "will grow at least 50% this year," building on momentum that CEO Lisa Su highlighted in recent quarters. AMD has achieved 33 consecutive quarters of year-over-year server share gains, with the company now powering over 50% of workloads at its largest hyperscale customers. 5

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Intel's Foundry Breakthrough

Perhaps the most significant revelation in KeyBanc's report concerns Intel's foundry progress. The analyst noted that Intel's 18A process yields have reached over 60%—a critical threshold that validates the company's manufacturing comeback narrative.

"While not best in class, as TSMC was at 70-80% when it launched 2nm, with Intel's aspirations of being the #2 foundry supplier, 60%+ yield is significantly better than SF2 at Samsung Foundry, which we believe is less than 40%," Vinh wrote.

The yield progress supports Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan's earlier commentary about 18A development. "So far the last two months, I have twice a week review with the team and we make steady progress on our technology towards the yield, performance target and reliability," Tan said on Intel's Q2 2025 earnings call. 3

Apple Lands as Foundry Customer

KeyBanc disclosed that Apple+0.32% has become an Intel Foundry Services customer, tapping 18A for low-end M-series processors used in MacBooks and iPads. Even more notably, the analyst believes Intel and Apple are in discussions to use Intel's next-generation 14A technology for low-end mobile processors in iPhones by 2029.

The Apple win represents exactly the kind of external customer validation Intel's foundry business has been seeking. As Intel's CFO David Zinsner noted previously: "Trust is a significant factor. Customers must believe you can execute consistently and be willing to invest in IP to port a design to a new foundry." 5

KeyBanc also highlighted interest from other hyperscalers including Amazon-1.08%, Alphabet+1.98%, and Meta-2.16% in Intel's advanced packaging technologies.

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AMD's AI Accelerator Outlook

For AMD, KeyBanc projects AI GPU revenue will reach $14-15 billion in 2026, driven by the MI355 GPU in the first half and a "significant ramp" of MI455 GPUs in the second half.

The projection aligns with AMD's recent momentum in data center AI. Lisa Su has noted that MI355 "matches or exceeds B200 in critical training and inference workloads and delivers comparable performance to GB200 for key workloads at significantly lower cost and complexity." For inference specifically, MI355 delivers "up to 40% more tokens per dollar." 2

Source: KeyBanc Capital Markets, company filings

AMD has also been building enterprise relationships, with EPYC enterprise deployments growing "significantly from the prior quarter" and the company closing "high-volume deployments with Akamai, Hitachi, LG, ServiceNow, Verizon, Visa and others." 3

Stock Performance

Both stocks have delivered exceptional returns over the past six months, with Intel doubling and AMD up 60%—outpacing the broader semiconductor index.

Source: Market data as of January 13, 2026

Intel's move to a new 52-week high is particularly notable given the company's struggles over the past several years. The stock traded as low as $17.67 over the past 12 months before the turnaround under new CEO Lip-Bu Tan began gaining traction.

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What to Watch

The KeyBanc upgrade hinges on several key assumptions that investors should monitor:

For Intel:

• Panther Lake launch execution in Q4 2025 / early 2026
• 18A yield trajectory toward TSMC-like levels (70%+)
• Additional external foundry customer announcements
• Progress on 14A development for next-generation nodes

For AMD:

• MI355 production ramp and hyperscaler deployments
• Server CPU share gains against Intel
• MI455/Helios platform customer adoption
• China export restriction impacts on AI GPU sales

Both companies report earnings in the coming weeks, providing opportunities to assess demand trends and guidance for the year ahead.

The Bottom Line

KeyBanc's double upgrade reflects a structural shift in server CPU demand driven by AI infrastructure buildout. With both companies sold out for 2026 and considering price increases, the competitive dynamics have meaningfully improved. Intel's foundry progress—particularly the Apple win—suggests the turnaround story has real momentum, while AMD's AI accelerator business appears poised for another year of strong growth.

The key question: how sustainable is this demand? Memory shortages are already rippling through the tech supply chain, with Raspberry Pi warning about LPDDR4 cost increases driven by AI data center demand. If these constraints persist, both Intel and AMD may benefit from extended pricing power—validating KeyBanc's bullish stance.

Related Companies: Intel+8.01% | Amd+6.25% | Nvidia+0.44% | TSMC+0.04% | Apple+0.32% | Micron-2.25%